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MN-03: Possible Candidates Thread

by: peebles

Wed Jan 14, 2009 at 12:00 PM EST

Given the voting results in 2008, we should actually be very hopeful for 2010.  Obama took 52.41% to McCain's 45.99%, while Paulsen took 48.48% to Madia's 40.85%.  The outlier?  An independent candidate taking 10.56%.  

So, who are our best candidates going into 2010 to unseat this incumbent?

-Terri Bonoff (D), State Senator
-Ashwin Madia (D), Iraq War Veteran, past candidate in 2008
-Jim Hovland (D), Mayor of Edina
-Paul Rosenthal (D), State Representatives

All three of these candidates, except for Rosenthal, have "run" in the past, and are known in the community.  If one has to handicap the race, it is clear that Madia was a disappointment to DFLers, which would give Bonoff the clear opportunity to step up and challenge Paulson.  

See below for bios and more analysis.

peebles :: MN-03: Possible Candidates Thread
Probable Candidates:

Terri E. Bonoff is a Democratic Farmer Labor Party member of the Minnesota Senate, representing District 43 since a special election in November 2005. Her district includes portions of Minnetonka, Plymouth and Medicine Lake.

Bonoff serves as Vice Chair of the E-12 Budget Division, and as a member of the Education Committee, the Business, Industry and Jobs Committee, and the Transportation Budget and Policy Committee. Her stated legislative interests include education, transportation, health care and the environment.

Madia was endorsed by[6] He was also endorsed by the Teamsters Local 120[7] and the United Auto Workers Minnesota State CAP Council.[8] Because of his progressive views on LGBT issues, Madia also received the endorsement of Minnesota StonewallDFL [9] LGBT group and eQualityGiving.[10]

According to Madia's website, he hoped to "draw on his record of leadership, service, and advocacy to represent the 3rd District in the U.S. Congress. Madia ran on positions such as ending the war in Iraq responsibly, balancing the budget, addressing global warming, expanding access to health care, renewing the federal commitment to education, and safeguarding constitutional liberties". He also said that he will abide by the endorsement of Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party.

Ashwin Madia earned a majority of delegates at the senate district conventions that took place across the 3rd District on March 1[11], March 8[12], and March 15.[13]. At the 3rd District DFL endorsing convention, which took place on April 12, 2008, Madia and his final opponent, State Senator Terri Bonoff, competed with indecisive results through eight ballots. Following the eighth ballot, Bonoff dropped out.[14]

I am not going to post much about Hovland because I don't think he has a chance given he didn't get a delegate in the DFL race.

Here is the person I think could come out of nowhere.  Paul Rosenthal, newley elected State Representative of 41B.

Altogether, my personal and professional experiences have introduced me to many issues that create either opportunities or roadblocks for our state, businesses and neighborhoods.  My parents taught me that one person who stops complaining and works hard can achieve solutions. Now, I want my own children to see that lesson in action.

I was drawn to Minnesota 17 years ago because I saw it as a model of social progress, good jobs and fiscal responsibility.  Working together, we can make state government work for Minnesotans again in the 21st century.

Now, I don't want to relive the battles of 2008, but there were a lot of discussions about Paulsen's education stances, and if Rosenthal really delved into education as Vice Chair of the Early Childhood Finance and Policy Division, then he could attack Paulsen very easily, either in 2 or 4 years.  

The typical route the DFL goes, from what my memory serves, is that they will go back to the next strongest candidate as opposed to looking to new ones.  That means that State Senator Terri Bonoff will be the person that most people see as the front runner.

Also, Bonoff is slated to be the main person, according to my friend in her district, on education reform, which would lend to her ability to counter Paulsen.  

So, who is missing here?  Any other surprises that we could expect?  

Also, what suggestions do you have for me for these threads?

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I don't know if she would've won either this year but with the primary and an Independent in a race, but I sensed a lot of people feeling that she should've been the candidate.

I think primaries are a problem in Minnesota because unlike the other states, there is a strong Independent party that siphons votes away from the Democratic candidate. In MN-03, it's clear the Independent candidate siphoned Bonoff voters away from Madia, it may have been vice versa if Bonoff got the nomination.

I think Bonoff, having already run, is the strongest candidate

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

Are you sure Bonoff was running in the primaries?
I thought Bonoff and Madia agreed to drop out to whomever got the DFL endorsement.  Independents aren't allowed at the DFL convention for endorsement.  The Independents are a big factor in the election but not so much the primaries.

[ Parent ]
There was a DFL Race
You are right.  There was a race in the sense that they were campaigning for the DFL endorsement by calling delegates and campaigning through public opinion for those delegates.

Another thought is whether that would happen this time - Madia could pull a Hackett and want to stay out of electoral politics after losing the battle.

[ Parent ]
yeah and the DFL
were a little over-confident in choosing to back Madia over Bonoff, primarily because of his background. And the the liberal bloggers all supported him in order to not support an "establishment" candidate, (never mind Bonoff had only just been elected to the senate in 2006), but Madia was a very conservative Democrat overall, and a former Republican. Of the two not only was Bonoff the more liberal, but the more electable. Tha's why I didn't understand the strongly pro-Madia sentiment on the netroots.

The best word to describe what the DFL did is cocky. Cocky in choosing a very young, inexperienced, unknown, political neophyte to run up against an established, well known political veteran in Paulsen. So, in the end, despite Paulson's strong conservative opinions and controversial involvement in shutting down the state government and his opposition to SCHIP, the end result wasn't even close, and it didn't surprise, I was never that high on Madia, if you listened to his Democratic Convention speech you understand too.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
We did that in the Presidential race
and it worked.

But, you're right, it didn't work here. The problem I saw was bitter feelings from Bonoff supporters who couldn't understand why many in the netroots were supporting Madia. The DFL race was divisive, it went to the eighth ballot and Bonoff dropped out, but Madia never reached out to her voters, and many voted for Dave Dillon.

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
nrafter is right, and it worked also in 2006 in...
...New Hampshire with Shea-Porter shocking the national Democratic establishment by winning the nomination over their handpicked candidate who by all rights looked reasonably strong against Jeb Bradley, and then shocking everyone even more by beating Bradley.

Yes it's a risk to go with someone new and unproven, but sometimes that new and unproven candidate proves to be a pleasant surprise.

That description applies also this time for Tom Perriello in VA-05, who beat Virgil Goode, although Perriello was THE Democrat taken seriously, not an insurgent in a primary fight.  But Perriello and Shea-Porter are very similar in the nature of their respective appeals.

I was disappointed, as an Indian-American myself, in Madia's performance, especially since he obviously was a prodigious fundraiser and had the political skills to wrangle the nomination away from Bonoff.  It's not like just anyone with his resume and biography could have pulled it off, it takes real political skill to do what he did to win the DFL nod.  But Madia obviously dropped the ball in the general to have barely cleared 40%.  I don't care that there was a 3rd party guy there, Madia should've performed better and won over some of those voters.

Madia had his chance, and if he wants to run again he should go for the state legislature or something local.

I think Bonoff looked like the next best pick from what I read, and she should be given the next shot if she wants it.  Too bad it's going to be harder challenging Paulsen as an incumbent rather than in a level battle for an open seat, but it can be done, depending on the environment for our party in 2010.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
The Madia result was very disappointing to me.  I had high hopes for him and liked him quite a bit from the little I saw and read of him.  But, I agree with you--with 20/20 hindsight, it's clear that the result just wasn't there.   It's probably best for someone else to make the run in 2010 and hopefully Madia finds another path for future electoral success.

[ Parent ]
There wasn't
but the feeling that Bonoff got railroaded out bittered her supporters and Madia did nothing to win them over.

Apparently felt he didn't have to.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Is this district very winnable with an incumbent?
From what I gather Paulson was basically Ramstad's heir apparent and is quite moderate as Ramstad was.  Do we really have much chance at taking him out now that he's an incumbent?  Hate to say it but Paulson sounds like a good fit for the district.  He might be very hard to dislodge.

Depends on Paulson's voting record
If he votes like Ramstad, he is set for life there.  If he votes like Michelle Bachmann, he will be perenially vulnerable.  

[ Parent ]
He was one of the 40
He was one of only 40 Repubs who voted for the S-CHIP expansion today.  That's probably an early indicator that he's going to be in a similar mode as Ramstad.

[ Parent ]
all I know is that he was
very conservative and somewhat controversial in the state house and was one of Gov. Pawlenty's arch-allies.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Things could change
now that he's in the House representing a moderate district.

I think this district is winnable, but it could be out of reach.

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
He worked on children's health care before
maybe this is an outlier?

[ Parent ]

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