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OH-Sen: Voinovich Makes It Official; Portman May Announce

by: Crisitunity

Mon Jan 12, 2009 at 12:08 PM EST


It's been the world's worst-kept secret for the last three days or so, but this morning George Voinovich made it official: he's hanging it up in 2010, leaving behind an open seat in a swing state where the recent momentum has been with the Democrats.

In a statement from his office, Voinovich emphasized that he wanted to spend his final two years in the Senate focusing on legislating instead of campaigning.

"These next two years in office, for me, will be the most important years that I have served in my entire political career," Voinovich said in a statement. "I must devote my full time, energy and focus to the job I was elected to do, the job in front of me, which seeking a third term - with the money-raising and campaigning that it would require - would not allow me to do."

All eyes turn to the ensuing musical chairs now; Roll Call, like most outlets, posits ex-Rep. and ex-OMB Director Rob Portman as the likeliest GOP candidate (although with no mention of John Kasich as a backup; instead it offers retread Mike DeWine and nutjob Ken Blackwell as other options). As always, we'll keep you posted as hats get thrown into the ring.

UPDATE: Well, that was fast. Politico's Scorecard is already reporting that Rob Portman is getting in the race and will announce his candidacy shortly. Let's see if that has the effect of clearing the field.

UPDATE, part deux: On the Democratic side, Politico is now reporting that Rep. Tim Ryan is making loud public noises about "certainly consider"ing the Senate race, while Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher's surrogates are saying that he is "leaning against running." I wonder if we could have both fields cleared within the next few days?

Crisitunity :: OH-Sen: Voinovich Makes It Official; Portman May Announce
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Ryan better run for Senate...
OH is losing 2 CDs after 2010 and it will most likely come from Eastern OH where Ryan along with Wilson, Boccieri and Sapce have seats. A primary is inevitable and at least one of these guys will lose. The new district may very well be less democratic leaning and Ryan, while the most senior of the 4, is the least conservative. He may have a better chance running statewide than running in a more conservative district in Eastern OH.  

Makes sense
And Ryan might be the strongest candidate we can put up.

[ Parent ]
Depends
I really think where the 2 CDs that get cut happen is going to depend on who controls the redistricting. I think the Dems will likely have this control and are going to be looking to make Boccieri, Kilroy, Driehaus and possibly Space's seats more safe. They will likely go after OH-2 and OH-12 to make this happen.

If they have to cut out a Dem, Kucinich is the likely fall guy: Ryan's district can move out of Akron and shift northward to Dem friendly Ashtabula, while Sutton defeats Kucinich handily in a more Akron-centric district that stretches up to the west side.  


[ Parent ]
Redistricting of CD's will be split control in 2012
Dems have the Governorship and state House, Repubs have a huge majority in the state Senate.  Split control of redistricting is basically guaranteed.

[ Parent ]
Kucinich had better brush off his resume. . .


[ Parent ]
Well it will give him more time
To go on more quixotic bids for President in the future.

[ Parent ]
It would not shock me in the least to see him run in 2012
Just for the hell of it!

[ Parent ]
Debatable
According to this site: http://www.fairvote.org/redist... ,it seems a little murky how control will shake out.

Dems will have Gov, SoS and Republicans will have State Senate and Auditor.

But the board is 5 members and the 5th member is chosen jointly by the minority members of the house and senate which are currently of 2 different parties. So how they choose who is appointed is anyone's guess.

The Governor has veto power over the Congressional districting though, so in that sense, the Congressional map will be controlled by Democrats, assuming all offices are currently held by the same people (a good bet).  


[ Parent ]
Wrong
Read more closely.

 The legislature is in charge of congressional districting, while the Apportionment Board handles state legislative districting.

The legislature, with Governor's veto possible controls Congressional redistricting.  The only thing that 5 person panel is responsible for is state legislative districts.


[ Parent ]
I stand corrected
But I will still point out with Strickland's veto pen, the Dems will de facto control this process. They may have to give up a little more than they want to than if they had total control (which is why I think Kucinich will be sacrificed), but this is their map to draw.


[ Parent ]
Basically, it sounds that way
But I'm sure what will happen is one dem and 1 repub district are eliminated through negotiation.  

[ Parent ]
Yes
But the Dem that will go will likely be Kucinich who underperforms his solid-blue district. If they can find a way to appease the Republicans in Cleveland's far-west suburbs while drawing a map that favors rising stars Betty Sutton & John Boccieri thats what they will do. The other possibility might be getting Space a safer seat by taking out Wilson, but I don't know if there would be as much sentiment for that as Kucinich is already somewhat of a black sheep.

In any case, my original point is that I don't see Ryan's district going away whether he runs for Senate or not.  


[ Parent ]
I'd get rid of
Latourette's seat, as the last Republican in the area he sticks out like a sore thumb in his gerrymandered, marginally Republican, district.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
It's only D+8
And it's primarily ethnic whites, who are a little less likely to vote straight ticket Dem than blacks.

Besides, how does he underperform? He hasn't had a close race since he won the seat.

I could see an attempt to take Kucinich out, but it won't be because of any underperforming, although they like you might try that as a reason. It'll be because he's a gadfly and not that popular amongst the party elite.

That said, I wouldn't count Dennis out in a primary. He's still around now, and his political career has died about three times so far.


[ Parent ]
It's going to help us big drawing the state districts
Right now the state house and senate maps are obscene republican gerrymanders drawn in 2002.  It's a miracle we were ever able to take the state house.  If we still have control of the 5 person panel in 2012 we can draw a new state house and senate map that we can actually win in.

[ Parent ]
I could imagine
forcing the Republicans to eat the Congressional loss, or we could threaten to do a mid-decade remap and make it even worse for them.  

[ Parent ]
Good idea
Hadn't even thought at that.  It could certainly force their hand in threatening a mid decade remap.  Afterall, once their obscene state Senate map is dismantled for a Dem-favorable one they won't have a majority there either.

[ Parent ]
Portman, DeWine, Blackwell
Is it really Musical Chairs if none of those mentioned above currently serve in public office?

Oh please Blackwell run
That would be too good to be true.

[ Parent ]
I don't know
How accurate this is, but there's a thread on MyDD saying that Portman has made it known that he's in for this race.

Almost
This almost makes me want Blackwell elected RNC chair just to keep him out of the race lol.  

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.

I want him as RNC Chair
To continue the gross ineptitude of Republican party leadership :)

[ Parent ]
Heh
Funny stuff.  Even republicans now realize how toxic Blackwell is.  I remember how heavily he was hyped early in the 2006 cycle as the next Governor of Ohio.

[ Parent ]
Portman strikes me
as a kind of Republican Erskine Bowles. Given his profile and the situation in Ohio today, I think he's eminently beatable.  

Excellent metaphor
Behind-the-scenes brainpower guy, low charisma, low name recognition, running on the strength of his resume and the sense of 'my turn.'

And yeah, in the middle of a manufacturing meltdown, I doubt Ohio, of all states, is going to be too sympathetic to a guy with such a free-trade track record.


[ Parent ]
A very apt comparison
It seems to me that Rob might be a bit more charismatic than Bowles, though, with slightly more upside (no one would've ever chatted up Bowles for VP, e.g.)

But yes, he's beloved by the power brokers and has 15-25% name recognition coming in, I would bet.


[ Parent ]
While in principle I think its an at analogy
couldn't a similar argument have been made of Mitch Daniels?

[ Parent ]
Indiana in 2004
was a much better environment for Republicans than Ohio in 2010 is likely to be.  

[ Parent ]
Fair enough
I doubt Daniels would have fared so well in 2010 either... just noting that their credentials are very similar.

[ Parent ]
Portman is dead meat
after the fact he was Bush's Trade Rep and was complicit in shipping Ohio jobs abroad gets wide publicity.  

I think Portman is their weakest candidate for this reason, and Kasich would be a stronger candidate for the Repubs.


Hooray
We get to face a free market, free trade offshoring Bushie.

Also, great news on our candidate front, Fisher is leaning against a run and Ryan is publicly considering.



"I am singularly focused on what's best for my constituents in Northeast Ohio," Ryan said in a statement. "That said, if I can have a greater impact by being in the Senate, I will certainly consider it."

Run Ryan, Run!

Also Patrick Murphy is out of PA-Sen. (Link. Hopefully this means Schwartz is in and that she will clear the field.  


This is great news
Tim Ryan is a progressive on most issues other than choice and will be an excellent senator.  And I think Allyson Schwartz is perhaps the only Democrat who can beat Specter, although I would prefer that Specter retire or that Pat Toomey run.

[ Parent ]
PA
Patrick Murphy can beat him.  If he wants it.

[ Parent ]
Well
as I pointed out above, he's out.  

[ Parent ]
I don't think
You can definitively make that statement based on that WaPo article.

[ Parent ]
Yeah
That Cillizza chatter is hardly definitive.

[ Parent ]
Plus the district is more favorable
Schwartz's district is a good deal more democratic and probably a relatively easy hold if she leaves it open, unlike MPatrick Murphy's seat.

[ Parent ]
It was supposed to be a swing district
The Republicans threw together the white collar suburbs from the old 13th with the white, working class, former 3rd. The idea was that the city-based Democrat win the primary, and then a moderate, pro choice Republican from the suburbs beat him.

They tried to set up a primary battle between Bob Borski and Joe Hoeffel, but Borski retired.  


[ Parent ]
I don't think
Murphy staying out is a done deal

[ Parent ]
Plain Dealer poll
A Cleveland Plain Dealer reader poll is showing Rob Portman and Lee Fisher as the reader favorites for the nomination.  Last week, one of their political columnists predicted that Voinovich would retire.  His favorites for a replacement seemed to be Kasich and Brunner.

Btw, the columnists reasoning was more personal.  Not only would Voinovich be 74 in 2010; his wife would be 78.  He felt it was time for a little enjoyable retirement before the ills and infirmities of old age really set in.

Maybe that's part of the pull on these retirements.


Fisher is all
Name ID. He's the state's current LG a former AG, and ran for Governor once before albeit in 1998. So, I don't know if Fisher has universal name ID its a heckuva lot higher than people like Ryan and Sutton who are virtually unknown outside of there CD's.

[ Parent ]
Go Ryan
I think Ryan's the guy, if he has the guts to leave his seat and go for it.  He's young, but I don't think he's going to enter House leadership with so many people ahead of him already.  I think he'll gin up enormous turnout in eastern Ohio as Mahoning Valley would come out to elect one of its own.  Zach Space is intriguing, as he might be able to win votes in a traditional GOP area, and he is also likely nervous about a potentially strong challenge in 2010 from a term-limited state legislator.  Finally, Betty Sutton is a lightweight, and I don't want her carrying our banner statewide.  

Portman has big problems, and it is going to be comical watching him run from his work over the last few years.  I bet his campaign barely mentions his time working for Bush at all.  Also, I don't buy the argument that he is that well known in Ohio.  He had two obscure (albeit powerful) positions in the admin, but he is virtually unknown outside of southwest Ohio.  Still, he will be able to raise a fortune with his contacts.  

With Strickland on top of the ticket providing a big boast to us, and the DSCC's cash, we should have a slight edge.  


Mark Kennedy part II
They'll keep talking about what a strong candidate Portman is up until the day he gets waxed by 20 points.  Obscure former congressman from super-red district, serves as Bush's trade representative during which Ohio sheds jobs oversees...the campaign writes itself.  Tim Ryan comes from a more evenly divided district, has the labor backing, yet will not be subject to the big city liberal attacks.  The GOP just lost the seat.

That's probably a valid comparison
Mark Kennedy (MN) in 2006 and to a lesser extent John Kennedy (LA) in 2008 come to mind when looking at Portman.  He has all the makings of an overhyped GOP disaster waiting to happen.

Time Ryan seems like he'd be a fantastic candidate on the stump campaigning statewide in Ohio.  He's given some very memorable speeches on the house floor.


[ Parent ]
Not the only similarity
Both Kennedy and Portman had stir-crazy successors who made idiots of themselves and have made their districts more vulnerable than they should be. Portman had Mean Jean and Kennedy, of course, had Kissy Monster.

[ Parent ]
Charlie Cook calls Ohio open seat likely R
http://cookpolitical.com/chart...

Umm... ya, that makes sense.  


Well, Gregg is "solid R"
so. . .

[ Parent ]
He's always overly generous to incumbents
But not open seats.  Maybe he hasn't fully updated his list because Ohio is tossup at worst, closer to leans dem.

[ Parent ]
Indeed
If we cut out races before 2006, it would almost look like "leans Dem." But who am I to second guess the great Charlie Cook. .. ?

[ Parent ]
He hasn't updated
He shows seats with "potential retirement" with an asterisk and doesnt include Voinovich in that group.

Clearly this will change when he gets around to it.  


[ Parent ]
State isn't in brackets but name of incumbent
Denotes Open seat just like MO, FL and KS. Looks like the updated rating to me. Seems Cook drinks the Portman Kool-Aid.

[ Parent ]
Correct
He has already changed it to an open seat but kept the rating at likely R.

[ Parent ]
Check out his ratings at this point last cycle
Sununu and Dole favored, Smith and Stevens Solid.

http://www.cookpolitical.com/s...


[ Parent ]
I bet he's waiting for something more official.
I mean, we know Carnahan and Talent are going to run in MO.  We know Portman is going to run, but Tim Ryan isn't "in in" yet.  What I find most disturbing about his senate rankings...

Senate Lineup: 54 Democrats, 44 Republicans, 2 Independents

Ummm, seriously?  I could have sworn it was at least 54-42-2-2 (2 Ind. + 2 Undecided)


[ Parent ]
You didn't get the memo?
Stevens and Coleman were re-elected.  Duhhhh...

[ Parent ]
hmm,
I think this is good. Ryan has the better statewide profile, and at 37, he could seve 36 years before he's Voinovich's age.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus


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