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NC-Sen: Statewide Recruitment Thread

by: James L.

Wed Dec 10, 2008 at 12:21 PM EST


GOP Sen. Richard Burr holds North Carolina's supposedly "cursed" Senate seat -- one that has switched parties every time its been up for election starting from 1974 onward. That's no guarantee that Burr won't break the curse in 2010, but he certainly starts the cycle with a big target on his back. Who would you like to see run against him?

UPDATE by Crisitunity:

PPP (12/8-9, registered voters)

Roy Cooper (D): 39
Richard Burr (R-inc): 34
(MoE: ±3.9%)

Speak of the devil: PPP shows up with a poll of one of the likeliest matchups: Burr vs. Attorney General Roy Cooper. The news is very good, with Cooper holding a five-point lead (albeit with huge undecideds). Burr also sports a downright awful approve/disapprove at 32/31, while Cooper clocks in at 44/23.

James L. :: NC-Sen: Statewide Recruitment Thread
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The names are endless
I think the best candidate would be AG Roy Cooper. Beyond that, I think former Treasurer Richard Moore, Congressmen Shuler and Miller are all candidates that can win. And obviously if outgoing Gov. Richard Easley wants this race, he'd probably eviscerate Burr.

Idon't like Miller anymore
after the primary campaign he ran against Perdue that divided the Democratic party and almost ended up costing us the election. My favorite candidate though would have to be Miller, followed by Cooper. Cooper is my prefered candidate though, ecuase he would be the strongest candidate.

In other Senate news, an attorney today revealed the Candidate 5 in the Blagojevich scandal was Jesse Jackson Jr. So much for his statewide political career, not that it was ever potentially that bright. Hopefully Blagojevich will be gone soon and Obama will go back to being the face of Illinois Democrats so that this does not hurt them like Taft hurt the Ohio Republican Party.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus


[ Parent ]
It was Moore who ran against Perdue
in the Gov primary.  Perdue cannot blame Richard Moore for her almost losing in November.  Perdue ran a poor campaign and was a weak candidate.  She sqeaked by on the coattails of Obama and Kay Hagan.

[ Parent ]
It wasn't Moore's fault
It honestly wasn't, and I'll never be convinced that Perdue would be a better administrator than Moore (I was a Moore voter).  She won't be bad, but he's just better. I don't think anything he did hurt her - it was her own lackluster general election campaign that included ZERO field staff and an abhorrence of fundraising that almost led to her defeat.  You can raise all you want to, but if you don't spend it right, it doesn't matter.

That being said, I'm all for Moore for any office he wants as long as he doesn't invite Jay Reiff back into the state to run his campaign.

28, male, NC-13 formerly NC-01, 04, 05, 07, 11


[ Parent ]
all I know is she was way ahead
then Moore went negative and kicked the primary campaign into high gear only to lose by about ten points, and then campaign immediately became very close for the next six months.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
I'd like to see Rep. Miller
But if AG Cooper gets into it I doubt Miller runs.  Schuler I would hope stays in the House, he's decent on economic issues and his social conservatism plays well in his district, but the state itself is blue now and can do better.

hey, there are a lot of
socially conservative people who vote for Obama and a majority of the state is socially conservative. I'm perfectly find with a social conservative representing them, partially because those issues come up so seldomly and any Democratic Senator would likely support Obama's pick of a court justice regardless of their personal beliefs.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Agreed
And if people think newly elected Senator Hagen is going to be a solid liberal they have another thing coming.  An economic populist/socially conservative candidate is about the best we're going to get in NC for the time being.

[ Parent ]
I think Miller
has already announced he's not running, and that's fine by me.  He's my Representative, and is steadily accruing more and more power in the House, which he would give up moving to the Senate.  We have plenty of other fine candidates, of whom Roy Cooper is the slam dunk favorite.  He would absolutely trounce Burr, I have no doubt about it.

By the way, for all those folks talking up Easley, he clearly is done with politics.  He's had a good, long run, and if he wants to move on, that's fine with me.


[ Parent ]
Richard Moore, former State Treasurer
Easly would be most effective at defeating Burr but he may be happy in Southport. Dem runner up for Governor and former Treasurer Richard Moore would be a great candidate should Heath Schuler decide not to run. I don't think Schuler would do it. He was a reluctant candidate for his congressional seat. Rahm Emanuel practically had to beg him to run. Someone from Wake county where Dems have changed NC politics for a long time would do very well.  

Moore burned a lot of bridges in the primary against Perdue


[ Parent ]
Moore burned a lot of Bridges
in primary, and his negatives are way up. Basically he f****** himself running the campaign that he ran agaisnt Perdue. And Cooper is far more popular and in a better position than he is.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Agree Cooper would be the best candidate
but what was it that Moore did in the primary that was so objectionable?

[ Parent ]
went really negative


Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Thanks
for being so specific.

I live in NC.  I saw nothing that Moore did that was so terribly out of line.


[ Parent ]
Plus Moore
did some potentially questionable things investing the state pension funds.

[ Parent ]
It's a Shame
Moore would have really been a terrific candidate.  He could have raised a substantial amount of funds for a Senate race.  He has the perfect profile for it.  With that being said, run Roy run!

[ Parent ]
Cooper leads Burr in a new poll
PPP

If Attorney General Roy Cooper decides to run for the Senate in 2010, you can put Richard Burr's name right to the top of the list of endangered incumbents nationally.

Cooper leads Burr by five points in a hypothetical pairing. He also has a similarly high profile to Burr, with only 34% of voters in the state having no opinion about his job performance, compared to 37% who are ambivalent about Burr. It is quite unusual for a lower ranking state official to start out with similar name recognition to a US Senator.

Cooper is also much more popular with a 21 point net positive approval rating, compared to Burr for whom it is only a single point.

Cooper has considerably more appeal across party lines than the incumbent. While Burr's approval among Democrats is - 30, Cooper's with Republicans is only -6.

To put into perspective just how good this early standing is for Cooper, keep in mind that when PPP first tested Senator-elect Kay Hagan against Elizabeth Dole during the summer of 2007, Dole led Hagan by 16 points. Of course that number can also serve as a warning to any Democrat who runs against Burr- things can change fast in politics.



Those numbers are daunting.
5 Point lead
43.5%/22.5% approvals for Cooper (+21, 34% no opinion)
32%/31% approvals for Burr. (+1, 37% no opinion)

It would truly be a shame for Cooper to pass this race up.  This would be like Shaheen of NH in 2008.  Popular statewide official leads the entire polling season.  


[ Parent ]
My money is on Cooper or Miller
Cooper has better name recognition within the state, having served as AG since 2001.  Miller is known fairly well in the RTP area, but his name recognition is not as well known in the Western part of the state.  However, Miller's personality should resonate fairly well with NC.  I think Miller may be more liberal than Cooper, but in NC, the Democratic party is not as liberal as the National Democratic party, so I doubt if Miller would have of an advantage based on ideology.

I love Richard Moore--he should have been our governor.  He's burned bridges with Perdue's camp, and I just don't believe he will rebound in time to win the Democratic Primary.  Moore's advantage is that he does have good name recognition.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04


RTP = Research Triangle Park
Better known to non-NC folks as Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill.

I though you were trying to combine this with Rocky Mount-Wilson-Winston Salem or something.  Heck, I even was seeing if it worked if the T was for Tobacco.  That would be an interesting combination.  


[ Parent ]
Top choice: AG Roy Cooper
AG Roy Cooper would clearly be a strong candidate.  He has solid credentials and is pro-environment.  As a bonus, he would not have to give up his current seat as AG to run.

Along the same lines, Sec. of State Elaine Marshall has now won 4 statewide elections and could run without leaving her current position.

Both Gov. Easley and Richard Moore would also be good candidates, and would be available since they are 'retired'.

Rep. Miller would be a great senator, but would have to give up his House seat to run. Miller ran the NC House redistricting in 2001 that drew that district - I am not sure how willing he would be to give it up.  He also seems to be pretty happy on the House side.

I hope Heath Shuler stays where he is in NC-11.  He can probably hold it for as long as he wants, but that seat could easily fall back into nutjob GOP hands (see McHenry, Patrick) without him.  We can also elect a more progressive Dem. than Shuler statewide.

I hope incoming Gov. Bev Perdue and Lt. Gov. Dalton don't even think about running.  


NC-11
is about ten points more Democratic in State elections than Patrick's is, and Democrats have the much stronger bench here.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
How many times
was Charles Taylor elected from NC-11?  5?  As poor and crooked a Congressman as he was, it took Shuler to finally knock him off.


[ Parent ]
Incumbency
It just took a wave to wash him out, as it did with so many of the long-term incumbents going into 2006 and 2008.  

[ Parent ]
Democrats ran some really sorry candidates
and he still didn't win by much. Shuler was the first dem in a while to really get out there with a negative message and to offer an alternative. Patsy Keever, a radical anti-war activist and consipriracy theorist got 44% of the vote against him in 2004. And the whole 5 terms, I think you're thinking of Robin Hayes, who also never managed to win by much. Taylor represented the district for 8 terms.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
strong Dems ran and failed
Taylor served from 1991 to 2007, despite being incredibly corrupt.  So 8 terms.

There were a number of solid candidates who tried for this seat in the past -- I don't know where you're coming from saying 2004 candidate Keever was a radical conspiracy theorist.  Though I agree she was more liberal than the district, she was still a very viable candidate with a solid political base in Buncombe County, strong backing from national organizations, and good fundraising (she raised 1.2 million to Taylor's 1.5).  http://www.opensecrets.org/rac...  

And she lost pretty handily.  Sam Neill in 2002 & 2000 wasn't as strong, but still ran heavy media campaigns, and lost by even more.  The 90s had a number of respected Dems trying their hand.

This is a pretty conservative seat.  Shuler was the perfect candidate -- not the only candidate who could win, but remarkably well positioned.  I want to keep him up there for a long time.


[ Parent ]
A lot of names come to mind...
Attorney General Roy Cooper
former State Treasurer Richard Moore
Congressman Brad Miller
Congressman Heath Shuler
former Governor Mike Easley
Any chance on Secretary of State Elaine Marshall?  

Thoughts on those folks
She's like 68.  Big Mike doesn't want to be a Senator.  Shuler is making noise and I think Miller is happy in the House.  I've also gathered that Cooper loves being AG and doesn't want to move.  But, he actually broke 60% in November which, if anybody has followed NC politics over the years, knows that that is an incredible feat for any statewide candidate considering how divided we are and have always been as a state.  

Moore burned bridges with the party establishment, which, after nearly 20 years in control, might not be a bad thing in 2010 if (IF!, not when!) things get rough for us.  He almost upset the heiress for the seat (which Easley did in 2000 against Wicker).  

28, male, NC-13 formerly NC-01, 04, 05, 07, 11


[ Parent ]
How'd I miss this one?
Roy Cooper.  End of discussion.


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