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GA-Sen: Results Thread

by: James L.

Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 6:42 PM EST


Polls will soon be closing in Georgia, and we'll be using this thread to follow the returns.

RESULTS: GA SoS | AJC | CNN

County Baselines

8:26PM: This looks pretty bleak.
9:05PM: CNN calls it for Chambliss.

James L. :: GA-Sen: Results Thread
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No exit polls for the Senate race?
Wouldn't be surprising if they didn't, but do you know if there are any?

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


.
Let the games begin!

It's 7 o'clock


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

My watch is set...
...for 25 o'clock.

[ Parent ]
I'm never going to get my paper done at this rate.
Come on Georgia! Get on with it and crush my soul!  

Same here


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
First votes are in!
Martin: 36.2%

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

Martin flips Bacon County!
Too bad there were only 28 votes cast, lol.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

Is that possible?
That county cast 3500 votes for Martin and Chambliss last time! There has to be a glitch...

[ Parent ]
Yeah, Too Bad Less People Voted
But looking at the results from November 4, it's clear the GOP vote went down.  

[ Parent ]
Nevermind
Someone screwed something up.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
7 counties partially in
according to CNN. Martin underperforming in all of them by like 10% (that by no means is representative).

Guestamate of turnout: 40% of general election.


I think these are just early/absentee numbers coming in.
Unless there are over 8,000 votes in the single precinct of Henry County that has reported.

I'm a bit confused...
why would they mark one precinct in? Reserved for absentee or forced to do so when entering numbers?

[ Parent ]
I think absentees do get noted as a separate precinct.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
This one I'm sure of
Martin flips Echols County.  Too bad no one lives there.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

This is pissing me off
Now, they're saying Chambliss won Echols.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
The CNN numbers
seem to be a bit off compared to Georgia's SoS and AJC.  

Where are the candidates from?
Do Martin and Chambliss have a base of support in any particular part of the country?

Martin is from Atlanta-Metro
while Chambliss is a former U.S Rep from Macon, holding a district similar to the one Jim Marshall holds know, (not that it helped him come close to winning Bibb in the general election).  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
no title.
Chambliss is from Moultrie, which is in Colquitt County.

Martin is from Atlanta, I think.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


[ Parent ]
yeah, I'm sorry
Chambliss was from the southern end of GA-08.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
don't call this one done yet
I remember Chambliss took a 60% lead when the first votes in the General election were reported. The Republican areas seem to report first here, and they haven't counted the early votes which narrowly leaned in Martin's favor. If Martin can get Chambliss to 53-47 before the bulk of Fulton and DeKalb and Clayton report, he might have a shot at pulling it off.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

and if you look at the map its almost entirely
Republican counties and precincts that have reported thus far and though Martin has lost ground in them overall turnout in them has gone way way done, which means if Metro-Atlanta, Chatham, Richmond and Muskogee county come out for Martin in high, close to general election numbers Martin coul pull this off. But this was always going to be a 'base' election, to see who could get their base out. So far Chambliss seems to have failed in that regard, but has been able to maintain his numbers from this point in the General election because Martin's support has also fallen in the mostly rural and exurban Republican areas reporting so far.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Indeed
about twenty-30 Republican counties are reporting in bulk, while only a few rural counties are reporting in significant numbers for martin and a little bit of Bibb, Chamblisses back yard. Good news is that their Martin holds the early lead: 96-4. Hah. Bibb is Macon, which has a large black population and is normally pretty solid for Democrats. Also of interest is that Athens-Clark has not even start Reporting yet either.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

Margin 66-34
Chambliss with 6 percent in.

Over thirty Republican counties are reporting in bulk, including must of the conservative outer ring of suburbs around Atlanta. Look for Chamblisses margin to be all downhill from here. Not sure yet if Martin can or will pull it off. So far only six Democratic counties have reported, only five have report more than 105 of their precincts and these are mostly small rural counties with barely 1500 votes cast a piece compared to a buttload of Rural Republican counties and the heavily populated suburbs. Martin also seems to be holding his own in Gwinett, not a bad sign.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus


Things look good in the Court of Appeals race
It's nonpartisan but Mike Sheffield is a Christian right stooge and is fighting to get above 51% even though most everything reported is rural and Republican.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

Lots of Republican counties in
Martin doing 3.2% worse than his 48.5% share of the two-way vote on Nov 4th. That means he's at like 45%.

Hopefully a lot of Absentee/Early Voting in the numbers. Again no democratic counties are in - with extremely low turnout, moderate turnout in those counties can win it for Martin.

Again predictions are rough, no dem counties in. There is still hope.  


Oh and in the one county completely in (Echols),
a heavily GOP district, Martin underperformed by 6%.


[ Parent ]
Gwinnett looks very bad
Almost half in and Martin is underperforming by 9%.  

[ Parent ]
Gwinnett
I took a trip down to Gwinnett two weeks before the election to canvass with some friends. I was horrified at how unorganized their field operation was. This doesn't surprise me at all.  

20 M MD-01

[ Parent ]
like I've noticed
Cobb and Gwinett usually get evened out a little more late in the night as more urban Democratic precincts report. Right now I think we're only seeing the super-Republican exurban portions of the district voting.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
I hope you're right
And it was two weeks out so...

20 M MD-01

[ Parent ]
Now 2 more counties in
Bacon (Martin under performs by 8.4% [extremely red]) and Quitman (Martin Underperforms by 7.5% [barely blue county]). Turnout in the 3 counties are 45-50% of GE turnout.  

[ Parent ]
Bacon
martin Only underperformed his last performance by 1%. But the bigger number is that Martin lost around 400 votes from his performance and Chambliss has lost 1600 because he had more votes their to begin with. So Bacon's actually good news more than bad news. Hopefully that will be the case everywhere and a late wave of urban areas will send Martin over the top./

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
forget the !%
part, you're right

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
nothing but very rural Democratic
counties are in, and Bibb is just starting. We need big turnout in the urban areas, especially among white Democrats, in order to be able to win this thing.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Bad news in Cobb
Martin appears to be underperforming there by about 7%.  

[ Parent ]
It's not all in
East and North Cobb are especially Republican while the Central and Southern parts are more Democratic.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
what's more is that
the inner city areas of Richmond County and Chatham County haven't even come in yet so don't start worrying about Martin's margins there people. Still, Martin has got to start cutting deeper into Chambliss's margins or else even high Atlanta turnout won't be able to pull him over the top and the way the map looks now it just doesn't look to much like he's going to be able to pull that off.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
more Richmond votes came in and
Martin completely flipped the county around, its now 64-36 and most votes are still are out. At the moment it looks like Republican votes and areas are still flooding in, at pretty reduced numbers though, same for the Democrats so far, we're not getting our base out like we needed to.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Chambliss down to 64% with
15% in. Turnout is down everywhere. In Democratic Twiggs it looks like its down 25% from 4000-3000. In other very rural Dem areas its down even more.

With 27% in Bibb Martin still has a much bigger margin than he had in the GE, 67-33 compared to 57-43.

But total turnout in overwhelmingly Republican Cobb so far, if current trends hold, will be about 130-140 thousand, compared to 310,000 in the GE. More than 50% loss of votes in a populous area Republicans can't afford to lose votes. Lets see how the Democratic turnout machine worked in its urban areas, that will be the difference here.

Oh, and Gwinnett is skewed at 64-36 Republican right now becuase the uoter reaches of the county report first while the closer in, more urban Atlanta precincts usually come in late and help Democratic margins overall in the County, quite significanltly actually.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus


Individual precincts?
How do you know which precincts are reporting?

20 M MD-01

[ Parent ]
I know that Gwinett
and Cobb's ouer portions report first, because later in the night the more urban portions finally come in and Republican performance goes from 70% to around 58%, suggesting that Democratic areas usually report last. Martin can only grow from this point on in Gwinett and Cobb.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Early retursn from DeKalb look good
Martin is up by 20,000 with ~13% in. That extrapolates to a 150,000 vote margin, compared to 168,000 on election day.

Okay, at the same time Fulton is looking really bad...
That's probably just Republican-heavy precincts reporting in first. But the opposite is probably true in DeKalb.

[ Parent ]
Fulton?
Fulton appears to be tied right now though... anyone know what's up with that?

20 M MD-01

North Fulton is INSANELY Republican
A lot of those votes are probably coming in.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
This is not a state we are going to win anytime soon
In a perfect storm scenario(IE:  Obama on the ballot), we might get within a few points, but otherwise forget about it.  

Unfortunately Martin has underperformed
across the board. Only 3 counties show improvements for Martin over GE. Overall under performance by 5.6%.  

Fulton 25% in and Chambliss still up? WTF
This one will probably be about a ten point win for Chambliss.  

See my comment above.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Not looking too great
But a lot of Chambliss' areas are in, so I expect this to at least get closer.

So
Quite a bit of DeKalb is in and the gap is still wide.

Turnout is actually pretty good -
we might see 70% of GE. Martin though is only getting 69% of vote compared to 78% of two-way vote. I can see a net of another 80K there.  

[ Parent ]
only good news is that chambliss is under 60%
for the first time all night,.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
oop
I spoke to soon. What a downer. If Carmouche turns out right Republicans will have the momentum going into the 2009 election cycle. No nice ending to this year that was already filled with disapointments. Not very happy with Obama's cabinet picks either.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
We have to win LA-04 now
If we dont, we are going to be in big trouble.  If McCain had won, I think we may have actually won this race.  

[ Parent ]
No, we don't
It's an off-the-radar election in the middle of Louisiana. It will not magically destroy all of Obama's political capital, nor will it stop Democrats having a majority of around 80 in the House.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but the sky isn't falling yet, Chicken Little.


[ Parent ]
LA-04
is very important now and I don't feel very good about it either, Carmouche should be running away with this as I laid out in my last diary, but he isn't.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
race is over
Martin failed to get turnout in Democratic urban areas. Obama was what he really needed to do this in a big election eve rally.

Richmond and Chatham both look like they will have barely over a third of the votes they cast in the general, and Bibb looks the same way and he underperformed his election day total there by four points, the same across the board. While Cobb and Gwinett are improving, I'm calling it a night and giving this one to Chambliss by a ten point margin.

jw

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus


I'm seeing around 50% turnout of two-way vote
for all the counties. But I agree, 55-45 at best.  

[ Parent ]
Everyone seems to be forgetting
that Obama LOST Georgia, by a significant margin (5%). It's not as if his coming to the state would have magically produced a victory for Martin. The way this is looking, even with 11/4 turnout levels in DeKalb and Fulton counties, Martin would still have lost. He took too big a beating in the rest of the state, and Obama would not have helped with that at all (and he might possibly have made it worse).

This was not Obama's fault.


[ Parent ]
Thank you
Seriously.  There appears to be an infection going around that makes people think Obama can turn double-digit defeats into victory for Democrats in Georgia.  Clearly, that wasn't gonna happen.  

John McCain: Healthcare for kids?  Not for a Bush-McCain America.

[ Parent ]
I still think
Obama could have helped him significantly get the urban black vote up across the state. Right now Chambliss has lost enough votes that 11/4 turnout in Fulton, Deklab, Clayton, Muskogee, Bibb, Richmond, Athens-Clarke, and Chatam would have been a near big enough margin to put him over the top.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Ridiculous
Obama does not have magical powers that can turn a double-digit loss into a win for a Senate candidate, especially not in a red state in the South.

[ Parent ]
Like I posted before
Obama may have hurt Martin more than he helped.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
I concur
Obama may have cost Martin more votes than he would have helped him win.  Some have forgotten that McCain, and not Obama, won Georgia.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Something I want to remind everyone
We would not even be here had Vernon Jones won the primary.  He was have been annihilated on Election Day.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

Would have sure saved the DSCC some money
because we've accomplished positively nothing here.

Tom Schaller is once again vindicated, I am sorry to say.


[ Parent ]
The Republicans spent more money in Georgia than the Democrats
Even though we're probably not going to win, that's something I can live with.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
I'd like to see the runoff expenditures
Because I'm pretty sure the NRSC and Saxby widely outspent the good guys here. It always felt like the DSCC was doing the bare minimum here after November 4th.

[ Parent ]
I would agree
NRSC, Chambliss, and other far right groups aired far more ads in far more places.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
The Republicans spent like 7 million
on the runoff while the DSCC did nada. That's the real story if you want to know. The DSCC spent all this money to get it to a runoff and then abandoned it. Plus Obama positively refused Martin's frequent pleas for help getting the urban black turnout up with a campaign rally.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
That's not true
The DSCC did air ads in Georgia, albeit, like I said, not as many.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
That's incorrect
DSCC spending on this race:

http://www.rollcall.com/news/3...

http://www.ajc.com/metro/conte...

Not sure exactly how much was spent, but your assertion that they "did nada" is wrong.

However, it does seem like they did some polling and then decided that pouring money in wouldn't make a difference.  Which, given the numbers, is probably correct.  

The "real story" is that Georgia's a super-conservative state that Barack Obama lost in the general election despite historically high turnout among African-Americans.  

John McCain: Healthcare for kids?  Not for a Bush-McCain America.


[ Parent ]
The state became less Republican in 2008
but it has a long way to go before its a swing state for Democrats under normal election conditions. The black turnout was sky high there. Obama did improve in the state by 6 points over Kerry, while only improving five points over Kerry nationally, lowering the state's PVI by one and improving mostly in the metro-Atlanta area which is a good sign in the long run.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
We've put some groundwork in GA
Do you honestly think that Obama would have won IN without the intense primary there? We've built some inroads in a state that will most likely be a tossup in 2012 (assuming it's not bad conditions for Dems).  

[ Parent ]
Were never going to win Georgia
This state just took a step backwards tonight.  

[ Parent ]
???
Says who? GA like VA/NC is growing more and more democratic with population growth, immigration, etc.  

[ Parent ]
In context..
tonight was a setback.  However, if you look at the big picture, Georgia is only about a small step behind NC.  Obama won NC, and Hagen beat Dole by 9%.  Like NC, Georgia is a fast growing state.  With some time, Georgia will become more friendly to national Democrats.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
I disagree
I think it really remained where it was minus a large number of the black voters voting. It was a base election and Democrats didn't get the base voter out. Young voters and black voters. God if only our voters were reliable to actually vote, like all Republican Demographics are. That's what kills us time and time again.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Never?
Never ever ever? Or just never ever? There needs to be some clarification here post-haste.


[ Parent ]
Schaller is fail.
Cases in point: VA and NC.

Perhaps this will be like a deep freeze where the top thaws before the bottom.


[ Parent ]
If you've actually read him
you know that he distinguishes the border south from the deep south.  

[ Parent ]
You can't win if you don't play
Money isn't wasted just because it goes into a campaign that doesn't win   -- the fact is  that we forced the Republicans to spend money on a run-off election ---  in a state they took for granted. Thanks to Obama and Martin, formerly solidly red Georgia is inching much closer to purple.  

While I'd prefer that Martin win, this is a good investment in building (and in the case of Georgia, rebuilding) a solid Democratic operation in a state that is growing in population and clout.

I want the DSCC to spend money not just on races that are likely pick-ups -- but also to go out and change the map by going out on a limb in harder states and make them competitive.  That means spending money on some losing races, but if you don't take that risk you don't have a chance of ever winning those states.



[ Parent ]
Well it looks like the people of Georgia
want more gridlock.  This means that we may not get a stimulus package or universal healthcare, which are needed to boost the economy.  Dont come yelling at us Georgia in 2010 when the economy hasnt improved because it will be your fault for leaving 42 Republican Senators.  

That should have been a major argument.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Well
I think that "Fear of a Blue Planet" was probably a pretty effective argument for the GOP's efforts to gin up the base. Ah well -- I don't think you could say that tonight surprised anyone.

[ Parent ]
At least we're likely to defeat a Right to Life-endorsed judge candidate.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
41, I'm still optimistic about MN n/t


[ Parent ]
Give it a fucking rest already
We don't need the Georgia seat to get things like that through the Senate. Do you honestly think that Republicans like Collins or Snowe will really stick to a Republican filibuster of things like that?

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Yes
They have absolutely no reason not to.

[ Parent ]
Not true
They do have reason not to b/c they are from a very blue state, and both have had inclinations to support Dems on quite a few issues. Reid can probably persuade them to support a cloture on the stimulus bill, green energy initiatives, and possibly even health care. There's also Arlen Specter to consider, and maybe even Lugar, Voinivich, and Martinez.

[ Parent ]
Doesn't matter how blue their state is
Collins just won re-election by 20 points in a big Democratic year. She has no incentive to side with the Democrats on anything. She routinely votes for the right-wing Republican agenda and her blue-state voters don't give a shit. It's sad, but it's true, and I don't see it suddenly changing next year.

[ Parent ]
Yes, but
Considering the items on Obama's agenda, notably the stimulus package and the green energy intiatives, I can him getting Collins' support (and Snowe's as well). She's been open to increased spending on things like infrastructure and is one of the few R senators open to green energy (the others being Snowe and, occasionally, McCain). Throw in some sweetners for Maine in the stimulus bill and you have her vote. I also think we can get her, Snowe, and Specter to support some (though not all) of Obama's health care initiatives. I never bought the characterization of her as a right-winger (Gordo Smith, yes), and it seems that the voters didn't either. Didn't help that Allen never made much of a case for himself.

While Maine may be blue on the presidential level, it was never that blue on the senate level. They've only had 3 Dem senators in the past century: Ed Muskie, George Mitchell, and Bill Hathaway (who beat Margaret Chase-Smith in '72 only to be trounced by Bill Cohen in '78).


[ Parent ]
Snowe and Collins
always vote the way the GOP leadership wants them to in the end. They may be given leave to vote as they like on unimportant or non-controversial matters, but if the right-wing GOP leadership really decides to dig in its heels against something, Snowe and Collins will toe the line. They always do.

The characterization of them as moderates is bullshit, and always has been. Yes, they'd probably do things differently if they ran the Republican party, but they don't, and they never will, and when push comes to shove, they carry the far right's water every single time.


[ Parent ]
Bullshit
Pure and simple. Collins and Snowe are perfect moderates, and, being a moderate Independent itself, i would gladly vote for both of them. If someone doesn't see difference between them and, say Jim DeMint - he is either ignorant or misleading (if not liar) or ..  (you may choose different options itself)

[ Parent ]
I guess it depends on your definition of "moderate"
Progressive Punch gives Collins a score of 50.4% for the '07-08 stretch, which is pretty good for a Republican (though her lifetime score is more worse at 33.4%). More interesting to me is her score on the "Chips Are Down" scale -- in other words, when her vote is most needed, how much of a "maverick" is she? And, predictably, her score is much lower -- 32.3. Snowe does better here, earning a 41.1 rating.

If that's good enough for you, well, that's your preference. I would prefer someone who doesn't vote with Mitch McConnell as often.


[ Parent ]
As i said
- that's good enough for me. If fact i am slightly to the left of Collins and Snowe, but surely - substantially to the right of Allen or Pingree. So i prefer moderates in Both parties - Bayh, Landrieu, Salazar and so on are just as good for me as Snowe or Collins. But i greatly dislike both "wingers" on the right as well as "far-left loonies" on the far left...

[ Parent ]
A "perfect moderate"
would not have voted for Samuel Alito for the Supreme Court.

[ Parent ]
One consideration
is that we might have just given them an excuse to.  

[ Parent ]
You don't think ..
Reid can get Specter and Voinovich to vote with us on the stimulus .. or health care? .. last I checked .. both are saying they intend to run in '10(though it is always subject to change)

[ Parent ]
CNN calls it for Shameless
ugh...

this makes me pessimistic
about our chances of winning the gubernatorialship in 2010. Same kind of low turnout off year election, that's why Barnes lost. We need 2008ish black turnout to win any election in the near future.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
I'm more optimistic
1. There was an incumbent with tons of money.

2. This is a federal race.

3. Martin was NOT a top tier challenger.  I've thought that all along.  He had never held statewide elected position and lost two years ago in a bid for the open Lt. Governor's seat.

The governor's race will be open, is obviously not a federal race, and will likely get a higher name candidate.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


[ Parent ]
Marshall certainly will not run after this
Which is good, because we would likely lose his House seat.  

[ Parent ]
Good. Jim Marshall sucks.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Hes the only reason we hold GA-08
Without him there, we would likely have a Saxby Chambliss clone sitting in the seat.  

[ Parent ]
I know that
He still sucks, though.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
done,
CNN has called it for Chambliss, who leads 60-40 with 62% of the votes in. We see who got their voters out and who didn't. Democrats in urban areas were hardest hit, with the major population centers where Democrats have to rack up huge margins seeing one third, if that, of election day turnout and smaller margins for the Democrat. This Georgia 2006 all over again.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

Obama made the right call to not get involved
This result was pretty much inevitable IMO.

Why? ..
it's the Democratic areas(according to other posters) that didn't turn out .. Obama would have helped with that

[ Parent ]
So you get a result closer to November
big whoop.

[ Parent ]
Turnout doesn't seem to be a huge deal
Martin under performed across the board. So maybe a visit would have prevented Martin from not underperforming (Martin's voters didn't show up). But right now it's a 60-40 race, the best hope is 55-45. The win is just not there. Obama was wise enough to stay away and now has a 78% approval in the way he is handling the transition. He's got other stuff to do than expending political capital.  

[ Parent ]
Even if they had
Martin still would've lost.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Hoping for Franken
After today I'm a but more confident on that seat. If we get to 59 I'll be very happy because of Specter. I just really want to see the EFCA passed.

The damn is leaking
Georgia is like Colorado a few years ago: very Republican tradition but demographics will pull it toward us.

No one would have thought a Democratic would come within 5 points of winning its electoral votes, and no one would have thought that a sitting Republican senator would be forced into a runoff against a second-tier Democrat.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


which people have forgotten Martin
was, a former State Representative who lost the Lieutenant Governorship in 2006 by a large 56-44 margin, about the same margin he looks like he's going to lose this low profile non-presidential election race, becasue the black vote was so much lower.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
oh, but I am disturbed
that a local good ole Georgia boy and long time white politician just matched Obama's white vote total in the general, and that's it. That shows theres now a harder and bigger barrier in the white vote than their used to be here,  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Shows that we need a new formula
The Georgia electorate has become much more polarized on a rural-urban axis.  We can no longer rely on a rural-urban coalition.  The suburbs are too big and the rural areas are mostly gone.  We've got to create an urban-suburban coalition.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Roy Barnes
could have told you that. Hell, BILL CLINTON could have told you that.

[ Parent ]
I'm worried Martin may not even get to 44%
and this may become an embarassing defeat for the national party. The votes just keep coming and Chambliss is holding steady. The only thing I can think of is a late minute surge from Atlanta and that may not even be enough for Martin to get to 44%. At least Fulton is back on board.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Roy Barnes may have won had he
not taken little known state senator Sonny Perdue, (who is a complete idiot), for granted in the race.

Barnes was also not very popular. He'd still be Governor though if he hadn't have redisned the state flag. He supported the unpopular northern arc freeway, and alienated educators and many parents with his questionable education reforms and initiatives.

But, he would have won if not for his bonehead move on the flag. His vote totals in dozens of south georgia counties shrunk by 20 percentage points and he lost ground in basically every rural area while losing the Atlanta metro-area thanks to the northern arc controversy.

But like I've said before, if Barnes had been a competent and popular Governor it still wouldn't have been enough to cost him the election, (the flag issue that is).

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus


[ Parent ]
What else needs to be said about a state
that will eject a Governor because he modified the state flag to remove reference to the Confederacy?  

[ Parent ]
I live in Georgia and said quite a few things about that.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
I wouldn't have supported it
I don't agree in censoring history and I think it wasn't a smart move politically and may have been what cost Democrats every level of government. What do you think? But also I think Barnes support of the widely opposed northern arc freeway and his terrible record on education ended up costing him the election in the end.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
My personal opinion
is that the Confederate flag is a symbol of treason...but that's just me. I'm not from the south, so I defer the decision to those down there.

I'm all about culture and history, and there's a lot for the South to celebrate. Some of our greatest artists, writers, minds came from south of the Mason Dixon line, but that flag represents violent rebellion against the government, which by nature of the Constitution, is an act of treason.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens


[ Parent ]
I supported the removal of the Confederate flag
It is a symbol of slavery, treason, racism, and discrimination.  I say that as someone who's lived his whole life in the South and who has ancestors who fought for the Confederacy.  History should not be censored, but we should not honor those who fought for evil causes.

I'm not sure about the terrible education record.  I do know he drew the ire of the teachers' union, the largest in the state.

As for the Northern Arc, I'm not sure.  It probably didn't cost him that many votes as that region of the state is heavily Republican.  It might have inflated Republican turnout, though.

Something else: Barnes was up by like ten in pre-election polls.  Something happened.  Either Perdue surged spontaneously, Democrats didn't vote, or something more nefarious happened.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


[ Parent ]
Democrats didn't vote,
our voters are terrible unreliable and I also think the whole flag controversies are ridiculous and that most white Democrats, whether actually racist or not, would view it as sucking up to blacks, which is one reason Barne's total fell so much. I don't think the flag honors those who fought but rather is a symbol of our past and heritage which I don't think should be repressed because it offends a few sensibilities, just my opinion.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Sucking up to blacks?
I'm embarrassed to share a party with people who would view it that way, frankly.

The Confederate flag is not cool.


[ Parent ]
Some heritage
Slavery, segregation, racism, and discrimination.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Any potential party switchers?
If Franken wins in MN and gets our total to 59, is there any GOPer we can convince to switch parties?  I'd like to have 60 senators, more for symbolic reasons than anything else...

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

Snowe seems the most likely.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
We already tried to get her to switch
Back in 2001 and she wouldnt.  

[ Parent ]
How About Voinovich Or Specter?
They're pretty moderate Republicans who haven't been on the best of terms with their party. They might be willing to caucus with the Dems.

[ Parent ]
Always a possibility
Specter actually was a Democrat back in the 1960s.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Specter was talking about getting Lieberman to switch to the Republicans
just a few months ago so I doubt he would switch. It doesn't matter that much anyways seeing as I doubt Specter will survive 2010, especially if Toomey runs.

[ Parent ]
I Have A Theory About Specter
I think he's feeling emboldened to run for another term, despite being 80 on election day, because Chris Matthews is apparently enjoying some pseudo front-runner status as the Democratic nominee for this race. Specter's feeling emboldened because he knows, if Matthews is his opponent, Specter would likely be reelected.

However, if the Democrats pick someone more credible, like Ed Rendell for example, Specter could feel the heat and cause him to rethink his career options: "I don't want to waste the last two years of my career in the minority," and he might, just might, join the Democratic caucus. Same argument goes for Voinovich; his poll numbers are in the dumps, and there's a whole slew of Democrats who would like that Ohio Senate seat after seeing the gains they made in the past two years.


[ Parent ]
Rendell will never run against Specter
They are old friends. I believe Rendell even cut a commercial for Specter once.

The biggest danger for Arlen is in the Republican primary.



[ Parent ]
Our numbers are better now than they were in 2001
Still don't think it's likely, though.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
I thought snowe might if collins went down
but I doubt it now that she won reelection, maybe Lugar?

[ Parent ]
No
He's one of the better republicans (in terms of being ethical and working aross the isle), but he's still quite conservative and probably going to retire in 2010 anyway.  Probably no chance he'd flip parties.

[ Parent ]
He's not up until 2012
He's getting old, but seems to be in great health and loves his job, so I'm not sure.  I could totally see him doing something with the United Nations or some other global group to end out his public career, though, so maybe.  If he does, it will be a fun Senate race to get involved in!

[ Parent ]
I believe he ran for his term last time
around with it being understood that this would his last term.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Yup. Lugar is a by-the-book conservative.
However, the man just wreaks integrity. I have a deep respect for him. Same with John Warner. The newer class of GOP Senators will never match up to these men. They are of a dying breed.  

[ Parent ]
Very good point
There were a lot of them not all that long ago -- Lugar and Warner, John Chaffee, Nancy Kassabaum, hell even Bob Dole.  Today's Republican Party has chased off this type of Senator.

[ Parent ]
Dick Lugar won't
I like and respect Dick Lugar, but he has a lifetime invested in the Republican party, is generally a sane variety of conservative -- but has a global (i.e. non-cowboy) view of foreign policy.

I think rather than trying to get to 60 (which would be nice but I think a bit overrated by some), there are several Republicans who will be with us on an issue-by-issue basis -- Snowe, Collins, Specter, Voinivich are the more generally moderate ones -- but I can see certain issues where Senators like Norm Coleman (if he wins again), Dick Lugar, even John McCain will support the administration and the Democratic Senate.


[ Parent ]
yeah I don't think so either
We took all the republican moderates so we are going to have a hard time finding people to switch parties. How about Shelby in Alabama?

[ Parent ]
He was a Democrat
Remember he was a Dem and then flipped around the time of the 1994 "Revolution."  He's far from the most conservative Republican, mostly because he likes to spend money on all kinds of stuff, but I doubt he'd flip back.

[ Parent ]
yeah I remembered that he flipped in 94
He might be worth a shot at trying to flip.

Trying to think who else could be a potential flip.

Snowe and Collins are a team, I think you'd have to negotiate with both of them in order to flip them. Even if they were willing to flip it's going to cost a lot in concessions to get them to flip. Probably committee chairmanships, transfer of seniority, and probably significant protection from democratic primary challenges for the rest of their careers.

Shelby is the only other one, I can see as a possible.

I thought Dick Lugar or Arlen Specter being some of the few sane Republicans might be maybes, but I do lean towards them just retiring rather then dealing with the flak from flipping.

Arlen Specter might get pissed off about being primary challenged all the time and just flip parties. However, I would prefer that he just retire and let the democrats win the seat.

Judd Gregg? the list of sane republicans these days is pretty thin, we kinda took them all out..........


[ Parent ]
Judd Gregg is no moderate and a total do-nothing.
I mean do you ever see the guy on the news? On MTP? In the newspaper? On CNN? Politico? He doesn't even do the local right-wing radio shows in the state.

He's a shadow Senator and a shitty one at that.


[ Parent ]
yeah tbh I know very little about Gregg
I hear he's a moderate from a lot of Republicans I talk to, however I have never even heard him speak.

Everyone has told me he's going to be harder to take out then Sununu so I assumed he was going to be a moderate.

I checked his wikipedia, he voted against the Federal Marriage Amendment, for stem cell research and is for some gun control. So not knowing much about him, that's not a bad start. However, I assume he's terrible on economic issues and probably could be taken out by a credible democrat easily in Blue State New Hampshire. But your right he's a shadow senator, I don't know much about him other then his name. I do know one fact about Gregg, he won the lottery twice last year so maybe he'll take his money and go home.

Their aren't many states that the democrats don't control all the senate seats in where it would benefit a Republican Incumbent by switching parties. In most cases it would hurt them much more then it would help them in their future reelection races. The only seats that would help them by switching would be the two Maine seats, Penn, Ohio, and New Hampshire.(Indiana, Florida (retiring anyway) and North Carolina but in those it's debatable about which party helps you in these states. Not to mention that other then Lugar I don't want any of those Republicans on our team.) So going by that logic their aren't many who would consider it.

The only non-blue state republican who I think could maybe flip is Shelby, and that's only because he's a former Democrat.

It doesn't look great for trying to flip a Senate seat, unless you want to give the house to the two Maine senators.

Ironically, the best person to probably persuade them to flip parties would be......Joe Lieberman


[ Parent ]
The only moderates left in the Senate are the Maine ladies and Specter.
All have far more capital as Republicans than as just a couple of centrist business-friendly Dems. Especially Snowe and Collins. They are going to suddenly become the two most popular members of Congress.

I could strangely see Coleman switching before any of those three. He used to be a Democrat. There are pictures of him online at a anti-Vietnam rally in college long-haired and all. His drift to the right began not because of economic issues but social ones. He hates teh gheys to say the least.


[ Parent ]
Read "Whistling Past Dixie"
In it, the author suggested that Democrats target Republican moderates in the Northeast, West and Midwest, leaving the Republicans left with nothing but the ideological Southern wing. Looks like his vision has come to fruition.

[ Parent ]
That would be Tom Schaller
The part that most people leave out is that he suggested we also target the border south. Georgia is obviously not there yet, and won't be any time soon from the looks of it.  

[ Parent ]
Thanks for the refresher
I forgot most of that. I think the big gains in VA and NC count toward that ;)

[ Parent ]
Voinovich to some extent
He's one of the old-school big government republicans.  But even he is probably in his last term.  Even if he does run for re-election I doubt he could win what will likely be a primary against a solid republican challenger.

[ Parent ]
Who would that challenger be?
I'm from OH, and I personally don't think Voinivich will run again (regardless of what he says now). If he were to run again, I'm curious to hear who you think would be a solid challenger.

[ Parent ]
Coleman's a strange person either way
In addition to being a serial flip-flopper, Norm was also in the circus for a while. Literally, he was a circus performer. I can't say what his act was, but I honestly wish he had stayed in the circus, preferably as the human cannonball.

[ Parent ]
Dammit
Well I'm out for the night guys.  This election just became much less important for me.  Found out my grandmother is in the hospital and not doing good.  She's 85 and in worsening health (lun problems).  And all this on my birthday...

Best wishes, Chad
Reminds you that some things in your life are more important than a Senate election.

[ Parent ]
Thirded.


My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Thanks for all the kind wishes
She seems to be doing better now.  Probably going to be in the hospital for a couple more days for observation.  She does have an early form of lung cancer and is in too bad of health to operate or have chemo.  Looks like she's going to pull through it this time.  The long-term prognosis is of course bad.  Luckily seniors are the one group in the country with universal healthcare.

[ Parent ]
Glad to hear she's doing better
I hope you and the rest of your family are handling it well.

[ Parent ]
Agreed.


My blog
Twitter
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Sorry to hear, man.
Take care and best wishes to your family.

[ Parent ]
My sympathies go out to you, Chad.
The last time I had a grandmother in the hospital and not doing well, she died shortly afterwards, and at only age 70 in 1998.

My blog
Twitter
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
That really sucks.
Sending good vibes your way, Chad.

[ Parent ]
1 out of 3
Martin and Powell lose and Doyle wins.  Damn.  Better than 0 for 3.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

Looks like both Martin and Powell got screwed
by Democrats who didn't show up. Powell won a plurality of the vote on Nov 4th.  

[ Parent ]
who was Powell?
just liek Georgia 2006 though.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Powell was a candidate for the Public Service Commission
The PSC regulates utility rates, among other things.  Powell had a big battle with the Secretary of State over his residency.  The PSC is elected at large, but must live in a district.  A judge said that Powell met the requirements.  But the day before the primary, Handel threw him off the ballot and didn't tell him.  He got a stay and won the primary with like 85%.  

Powell got a plurality of the vote an Election Day against a guy who was a whore for the energy companies.  Powell was even endorsed by the apparently pro-consumer outgoing Republican.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


[ Parent ]
Well, i expected 54-46
Big win for Chambliss

A stunning rebuke for the President-Elect!
Not.

according to Bill Nolan
im sure it was.

[ Parent ]
Wait until Saturday then
Carmouche loses then it is the end I tell you, the end!

[ Parent ]
Obama was actually untainted by Martin's loss.
http://www.nationaljournal.com...

To be sure, Martin himself was always going to be a tough sell, even to Georgia Democrats. The former state representative had no obvious statewide base or appeal. This was a guy who was simply in the right place at the right time. It's hard to envision how Obama alone could have made him more attractive.

It's also important to note, however, that even in November, Martin still wasn't able to match Obama's showing in these key Democratic counties. In Fulton, for example, Martin's 63 percent showing was 4 points lower than Obama's. This suggests that Obama's rising tide was unable to lift all boats.

While a loss would have been demoralizing for the party, a win here is simply a continuation of the status quo. The first step in rebuilding the party would be to start to win seats in, say, the Midwest or Southwest. One big opportunity, for example, would be to knock off Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in 2010. This would have the double impact of picking off a Democrat Republicans love to hate while showing that Republicans can compete in a state where John McCain got walloped.


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)



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