Jim Martin (D): 46 (46)
Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 53 (52)
Undecided: 1 (2)
Tom Jensen says:
Chambliss is up 71-28 on Jim Martin with whites. For Martin to win the runoff with that performance, the electorate would have to be 34% African American. Given that it was only 30% for the general election with Barack Obama at the top of the ballot and that early voting was less than 23% black, that does not seem particularly likely.
Not looking good. The other survey, from Insider Advantage, isn't looking much better (11/30, likely voters, 11/23 in parens):
Jim Martin (D): 46 (47)
Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 50 (50)
Undecided: 4 (3)
Matt Towery of IA offers some succor:
The race could be a 10-point blowout for Chambliss, or under the right circumstances, a very tight contest. This is like trying to forecast snow in Georgia - almost impossible.
I'm not sanguine. Nine polls by five different pollsters have all given Chambliss the lead. Could they all be wrong, Alaska-style? Sure, but I wouldn't count on it.