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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

by: DavidNYC

Fri Apr 06, 2007 at 10:11 PM EDT

(Bumped. - promoted by James L.)

Q: How bad do you think it's gonna be?
A: Pretty goddamn bad. Probably all the other Families will line up against us. That's alright - this thing's gotta happen every five years or so - ten years - helps to get rid of the bad blood. Been ten years since the last one. You know you got to stop them at the beginning, like they should have stopped Hitler at Munich, They should never've let him get away with that. They were just asking for big trouble.

Saturday Night Discussion Items (James):

Florida: Republican Gov. Charlie Crist, with a single stroke, made his state more politically competitive for Democrats by restoring the voting rights of an estimated 515,000 felons who have committed "less serious" (nonviolent) crimes. Salon's Farhad Manjoo gives the implications:

The ex-cons belong to traditionally Democratic demographics -- many are African-American, and many are poor. If they're allowed to vote, they'll likely go to the polls at lower rates than everyone else; Uggen and Manza's work suggests felons turn out to vote at about the half the general turnout rate in any given election. But in a state as closely divided politically as Florida, that could still make all the difference. In the past several decades, say Uggen and Manza, at least two Senate races in Florida would have gone to Democrats instead of Republicans had felons had the right to vote. Buddy McKay would have beaten Connie Mack in 1988, and Betty Castor would have beaten Mel Martinez in 2004. And, of course, the 2000 presidential election would have gone to Al Gore. Uggen and Manza's research suggests Gore might have picked up 60,000 votes from felons.

NY-25: Dan Maffei rides again.

OR-Sen: Will he or won't he? The Draft DeFazio for Senate campaign kicks into high gear.

CT-05: Freshman Rep. Chris Murphy is hitting the ground running, raising $420,000 in the first quarter of 2007, according to a DCCC e-mail. Numbers like those this early in the cycle should make his potential Republican challengers pause.

NM-02: New Mexico FBIHOP takes a look at the potential challengers to Republican Rep. Steve Pearce in this R+5.7 district.

DavidNYC :: Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 25 comments

NH-Sen.

Steve Marchand diaried at Blue Hampshire and took the questions he got really seriously, it seemed. That's always a nice sign.

by: MissLaura @ Sat Apr 07, 2007 at 02:11:50 AM CDT

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ME-01 and MA-05

Former Common Cause President Chellie Pingree has officially entered the race to succeed Tom Allen (ME-01), who is expected to run for Senate against Susan Collins. Here's her Huffington Post interview.

These are Democratic candidates in MA-05 in the special election to succeed Marty Meehan, who is resigning. The primary will be held in September.

by: MikeCT @ Sat Apr 07, 2007 at 08:35:51 AM CDT

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Eileen Donohue is a highpowered state-senator right,

moderately liberal, and an all around great candidate, right? I'm sorry, I just can't recall if that description fits her, or one of the many other politicians I read about.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Sat Apr 07, 2007 at 12:18:37 PM CDT

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NY-25 Maffei seeking Rematch.

I really think he could do it this time. I hope the DCCC and others work on this race a lot sooner than they started in 06.

by: D in FL @ Sat Apr 07, 2007 at 12:34:30 PM CDT

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the whole state of Illinois

With some luck, quality candidates and get-lots-of-people-involved campaigning in the next three cycles and an aggressive remap after the 2010 Census, I can see Dems having a 13-5 (or greater) advantage in the Land of Lincoln.

by: Carl Nyberg @ Sat Apr 07, 2007 at 13:08:58 PM CDT

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Fl felons...

Why does do we assume felons are more Democratic? Is there a study?

Will the majority of felons even vote?

by: wmlawman @ Sat Apr 07, 2007 at 18:58:25 PM CDT

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Uggen and Manza's study...

...say that if ex-felons had the right to vote, Gore would have won the state by a 60,000 vote margin--and that's accounting for the fact that felons vote at half the rate of the rest of the population.

Essentially, in a state as big as Florida, which currently only leans Republican, this is a pretty big deal.

by: James L. @ Sat Apr 07, 2007 at 19:04:50 PM CDT

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not to mention...

That there are studies, and please don't make me look them up, but african-americans are a disproportionally large % of prison populations... and african americans tend to vote more democratic than republican.

by: Venslor @ Sat Apr 07, 2007 at 23:56:36 PM CDT

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Yeah, I'm a little skeptical

of some of Uggen and Manza's claims about white felons, but the racial composition point is powerful enough for me.

by: MissLaura @ Sun Apr 08, 2007 at 00:01:04 AM CDT

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If felons

are clustered in particular districts, this may determine the outcome of close House races. Christine Jennings may have won outright despite Kathy Dent's incompetence.

Learn more about Bobby Jindal.

by: louisianagirl @ Sun Apr 08, 2007 at 03:45:23 AM CDT

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In the '04 Washington

governor's race recount court case extravaganza, felons who had voted illegally were deposed and, among other questions, asked for whom they'd voted. All but one voted Republican (for Rossi). The other one voted Libertarian. (The sample size was extremely small -- less than ten, I think -- so I wouldn't generalize to other states based on this. It's amusing only because the Republican Party's whole case was predicated on the assumption that illegally voting felons would uniformly vote Democratic.)

by: Crisitunity @ Mon Apr 09, 2007 at 12:39:40 PM CDT

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Wow, that is a lota cash for Murphy

in fact, that is almost as much as Huckabee brought in for his presidential race. That is enough to make any challenger's heart sink.

by: pierredude @ Sun Apr 08, 2007 at 01:15:36 AM CDT

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Good point. Hucakbee is a total joke at this point. Even Duncan Hunter raised more.

by: DavidNYC @ Sun Apr 08, 2007 at 15:05:03 PM CDT

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Also, on Chris Murphy...

...he raised just a little more than half of what Johnson raised, and defeated her by more than 12 points. (Others in the defeated-an-incumbent-by-a-big-margin caucus: Ellsworth at 22, Sestak at 12.) I don't think the GOP will be anxious to bother in CT-5 anytime soon.

Any numbers from our other new Murphy?

by: Seth D @ Sun Apr 08, 2007 at 21:57:49 PM CDT

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Great for Murphy

Folks like Gillibrand, Mahoney, Altmire, Space, Hall, McNerney, Walz, and Kagen better have numbers that are at least close to that of Murphy if they want to have any hope of being reelected. The general rule is that in order for the incumbent to win, they have to outspend the challenger by at least 3 to 2.

by: Sean @ Sun Apr 08, 2007 at 21:56:19 PM CDT

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Hall should have a much easier time then Gillibrand, Mahoney etc

much more Democratic district. It has a Democratic PVI unlike Gillibrand, Mahoney etc. But hey, we could be surprised again.

by: pierredude @ Sun Apr 08, 2007 at 22:52:06 PM CDT

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I agree on Hall

I am just saying that he can't take anything for granted.

by: Sean @ Sun Apr 08, 2007 at 22:58:06 PM CDT

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I think you're mistaken...

Hall's district has a PVI of R+1.5. Sure, it's a bit better than Gillibrand's and Mahoney's districts (R+2.5), but Bush won it by 9 points in 2004. The difference is, though, that in 2000, he only won NY-19 by 2 points, which means that a significant 9/11 bump was coming into play in '04.

by: James L. @ Sun Apr 08, 2007 at 23:35:22 PM CDT

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R+1 Actually

And yes there was a large 9/11 bump in that district for 2004. That said, the only kind of Republican that wins it at the Congressional level here these days as a non-incumbent would be a Rockefeller Republican like Sherwood Boehlert or a Jim Greenwood and the Republican that is running now is very right wing, which does not play well here. This is the case with most of the seats that Democrats picked up with the obvious exceptions of PA-10 and TX-22, which were the only two dangerously Republican districts that Democrats picked up.

by: Sean @ Mon Apr 09, 2007 at 00:03:41 AM CDT

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Right

the guy running right now, Keiran Lalor, is an absolute wingnut that has no chance of winning. If he somehow wins the nomination, the DCCC wont need to spend a dollar on behalf of Hall.

That being said, I expect other Republicans to jump into the race - my bet is with Greg Ball, a newly elected assemblyman from Westchester who is perceived as a Spitzer-ally and reformer...not to mention he's a very, very good campaigner. If Ball runs, it will be a tough race.

by: NYPopulist @ Mon Apr 09, 2007 at 01:23:12 AM CDT

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Hall vs. Ball?

Oh, great, the journos are going to have a field day with that one.

How about Coleman vs. Coleman in the MN-Sen race, while we're at it?

(Remember when the press was all gaga about the idea of a Kerry/Kerrey ticket in '04? I swear, anything for a good headline . . . )

by: The Caped Composer @ Mon Apr 09, 2007 at 08:20:17 AM CDT

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Hey, don't forget Warner vs. Warner

by: DaveSund @ Mon Apr 09, 2007 at 09:09:24 AM CDT

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Hunter? Tancredo raised more!

being normal is for the mediocre.

by: doug_tuttle @ Sun Apr 08, 2007 at 15:20:03 PM CDT

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Felon vote

Picking up the votes of felons seems like a funny thing to brag about.

My site: Political Realm

by: PoliticalRealm @ Mon Apr 09, 2007 at 14:59:43 PM CDT

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Remember...

That in Florida Jeb Bush used the law against Felons voting to remove thousands of legally registered voters who had the same or a similar name to a felon. This disproportionately affected minority groups that tend to vote Democratic. Therefore, restoring voting rights would help mitigate against this as well.

by: Johnny C @ Mon Apr 09, 2007 at 19:00:45 PM CDT

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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 25 comments