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NV-Sen: Things Look a Little Dicey for Reid

by: Crisitunity

Wed Nov 26, 2008 at 3:12 PM EST


Research 2000 for Daily Kos (11/23-25, likely voters):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 46
Jon Porter (R): 40
(MoE: ±4%)

Looks like Nevadans are feeling kind of lukewarm about Harry Reid these days. ("Lukewarm" and "Harry Reid" in the same sentence? Wow, I'll bet that's never happened before...) In a prospective 2010 matchup, he's beating Jon Porter (who recently got bounced from his NV-03 seat by Dina Titus) by six points, although he's well below the 50% comfort level.

The numbers below the fold look worse for Reid; his approval/disapproval rating is only 38/54 (luckily, Porter's are little better at 40/39). When asked whether they'd choose to reelect Reid or consider replacing him, respondents say 32% reelect, 23% consider someone else, and 41% say replace him. Against a strong challenger with a statewide reputation, Reid could face some real trouble, leaving him possibly the only endangered Dem-held seat in 2010. However, between the badly depleted Republican bench in Nevada (Porter may truly be their best bet, as Lt. Governor Brian Krolicki may be looking at indictment rather than a run against Reid, and Rep. Dean Heller is likely to either stay in place or go for Governor) and Nevada's rapid demographics-driven bluening, this race could just as easily turn into a non-issue.
Crisitunity :: NV-Sen: Things Look a Little Dicey for Reid
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NV-Sen: Things Look a Little Dicey for Reid | 24 comments
Still don't trust R2K
and Porter won't win.  I doubt Porter is at 40% statewide.  And I doubt he has 80% name recognition.  To me, R2K numbers are just as good as made up numbers.  

"[Rush Limbaugh] is a sorry excuse for a human being and a has-been hypocrite loser who was more lucid when he was a drug addict." Congressman Alan Grayson (D-FL)
The Las Vegas media market...
...covers a good deal of the state (NV-01 and NV-03, obviously, but also a good deal of turf in NV-02), so I have no doubt that his name is fairly well known throughout much of the state, especially after several cycles of competitive races.
[ Parent ]
Not just that
Not only is the Vegas media market most of the state, but the north is significantly more Republican.

But, Obama also outperformed the polls by a pretty big margin here so he could be a lot safer than this poll says.

"Keep the Faith"

[ Parent ]
They were all right
They nailed many of the races. Off the top of my head they got both the Shadegg-Lord and Trauner-Lummis races about right on the margins, while many thought both could be closer, I know they were close on the South Florida races, and I think they got all of the Senate races right with Minnesota still to be decided. I think their major misses were with the Kirk-Seals and McClintock-Brown races, but overall a decent job.
[ Parent ]
Didn't they have FL-21 within the MOE
when we lost by like 16?  And VA-2, they had us down double digits, and they way underepresented the Black vote in AL-2 and at least one other one.  And you mentioned IL-10, where they were off by like 16 from the actual result.  

"[Rush Limbaugh] is a sorry excuse for a human being and a has-been hypocrite loser who was more lucid when he was a drug addict." Congressman Alan Grayson (D-FL)
[ Parent ]
Well
Many of the polling firms have generally had problems with the House seats. They did miss FL-21, which everyone was off on, but got FL-25 fairly close. I do trust SurveyUSA the most, but there are worse polling firms than Research 2000.
[ Parent ]
But what about Nevada?
What did R2K's final Nevada poll look like? I remember most polls were WAY off with their final numbers, most showing a 4-7% Obama lead. Only AP-GfK AFAIK nailed Obama's 12% win on the 4th, while Suffolk came close with a 10% lead for Obama.

So while I'm not banking on this poll number being wrong, I don't think we should declare Harry Reid a "toss-up" for reelection before we see more polls... Or even see if Porter actually runs.

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats

[ Parent ]
Not really suprising
Reid has always been a "lukewarm" candidate for Nevada mainly because he typifies the typical Dem establishment pol who we know but don't really care for. I, personally, think he is a very weak Dem national leader but a strong political deal maker (i.e. he's stronger as a behind the scenes guy rather than a face of the party). Nevada is trending blue, but Obama's 12 point margin of vicotry (largest since Bush '88) in the stae was becuase of the state's dismal economy, newer residents and hipsanic voters and an awful GOP bench. However, Porter was a wave casualty not a Bill Sali or Marilyn Musgrave we-hate-this person-vote, so I think he still has some potential. Afterall, Reid previously lost (by less than 1k votes)to Reagan acolyte former Sen. Paul Laxalt in the 1970s before winning in 86. Reid may not benefit from ground efforts of Obama '08 and if the economy isn't in too great a shape by mid-2010, Reid may be in more trouble. We'll see how this goes but the GOP better get the best nominee if it wants to have a chance at all because, you can't beat somebody with nobody.
Probably backlash from the left
Not from the right.
Reid's an ineffective noob but I'm not worried about him.
He last won re-election with 61% of the vote in what was a Republican leaning year.  
not the first Senate Majority leader in trouble
There's something of a tradition here.  One can go back over 50 years, and you will find Majority leaders in trouble.

While Democrats have made substantial gains in Nevada, the national party is relatively unpopular, and Reid has had low approval ratings for a while.  This dip may be bailout-related, but I do think relinquising his majority leader status might be a good idea.

Nah...
Reid's OK where he's at now. Let him get Obama's agenda passed. If that happens & he does even more for Nevada, he should be fine in 2010.

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats
[ Parent ]
That would make a good diary
You should give it a go!
[ Parent ]
I believe its
A recent phenomenon. When looking at the Dems, we all know Dashcle lost. But looking at his predecessors: George Mitchell never faced re-election as Majority Leader but he probably would've won had he chosen to do so, Robert Byrd never had a competitive race when he was Majority Leader, and I don't think Mike Mansfield did either.

Looing at the other side, obviously McConnell escaped by the skin of his teeth against Bruce Lunsford. But among his predecessors, Bill Frist never faced re-election as Majority Leader but his two predecessors, Trent Lott and Bob Dole did and both defeated their opponents easily.

[ Parent ]
not so recent
1950:  Scott Lucas lost to Everett Dirksen
1952:  McFarland lost to Goldwater

So it's happened in the past.  I do agree if Reid really pushes Obama's agenda through, he'll be reelected.

I would prefer a Majority Leader from a safer seat.

[ Parent ]
Barb "Pwnage" Mikulski for majority leader?
Make John Sununu scared of EVER running for Senate again?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
It all depends on his leadership the next 2 years
If he engineers passage of many of the legislation Obama has promised he will probably increase in popularity greatly.  If he fails and/or gives in to Senate republicans too much he'll get votes out, as he will deserve should that happen.  

Reid better not be afraid of the right he better be afraid of an angry left if he doesn't get enough done.

Paul Kanjorski

His numbers were WORSE
And Reid has known for years that they'd be coming after him, so he's prepared accordingly (I hope. . .)
[ Parent ]
yeah I don't think Reid will lose
I don't see anyone on the Republican Nevada bench taking him out. I'm hoping for a similar situation as to what happened in New Mexico in that Porter and Heller fight it out in a primary and the winner loses to Reid. That way we can pick up Heller's congressional district as well.
[ Parent ]
That would be awesome
Heller leaves his seat and Derby or another, stronger Democrat turns the seat blue.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Get someone awesome and Gary-Trauner-like
in NV-02, where there will actually be enough Democrats to vote for our nominee.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
Not Derby
I like her, but she's run for the seat in two consecutive cycles that were both very pro-dem, the first of which was for an open seat.  She's lost handily both times.  She's obviously not a candidate that can win there.  We need to find someone else.
[ Parent ]
Derby's pretty old, too
She'll be 70 years old in 2010 -- a pretty old age to start a career in the House.
[ Parent ]
NV-Sen: Things Look a Little Dicey for Reid | 24 comments

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