On the other hand

there is the simple, ugly fact of continuing Republican majorities in the state legislature for at least 2 to 3 more election cycles.  A Governor Sink would simply not be able to change very much and wither in office after a couple of internal state government reforms.  Christ is not a Democrat, but other than that he seems to be pragmatic or practical enough to be tolerable.

What I really dont understand is why there isnt much work at a grassroots machinery in the state.  At a minimum Florida Democrats should be financing an effort to help pardoned former felons fill out applications, get their pardons issued, and registered to vote.  And they should embarrass the state legislature by offering to pay the costs for more government employees to process the applications rather than let a skeleton staff of bureaucrats slow walk them.  That is 200,000 or more voters.  And an Obama INS could end the slow walking of Florida Latino citizenship applications in Washington.  And rather than have the thin Democratic bench run for US House seats every election, let the exoerienced but less successful candidates run for state Senate and state House seats.

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by: Baystater @ Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 00:10:04 AM CST

Pragmatic and tolerable

Doesn't say the economy is doing fine last week, ignore a multi-billion dollar budget deficit, hold apress conference about a program that will actually hurt the economy and claim it will create jobs, suggest cuts in services that would take medicare away from pregnant single mothers making 15,000 a year, or tell people to go to his website to find a job.

I am sorry pragmatic climate change is what Charlie does to make us complacent. There are lives at stake here a state's future. I am not interested in waiting four years because he's consider and okay republican over extending voting hours (which he did about 1.5 years after Dan Gelber asked him to -- Alex Sink 1.5 days).

As for the grassroots machine? It was devastated by 2000, it was a trauma for the nation's Dems but it decimated the Florida Dems combined with Jeb and gerrymandering. The only way to keep the volunteer machine that Obama activated going is if we have a great ticket -- including governor.

draftalex.com
Draft Alex Sink for Governor

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by: draftalex @ Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 09:15:33 AM CST

[ Parent ]

We wil not beat Charlie Crist, period

Running Alex against him is a waste of her talent and South Florida Dems do not usually do well statewide.

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by: RandySF @ Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 01:14:02 AM CST

I disagree

One Boyd and Wexler probably aren't running. But I agree. Sink should run for governor, but not in 2010, but 2014. Charlie just remains too popular and won easily in very Democratic 2006, against a strong opponent, (though it would have been closer could Rod and Davis combined their bases, supporters, and money for a real run). For Senate I want either Kathy Castor or Ron Klein, both are extremely good campaigners with great well located bases for state wise wins, (with Klein representing a district that somehow takes in every single Republican in South Florida to form a district that's only mildly Democratic leaning, andhe's a goodfundraiser, campaigner, and great politician to beat a popular 13 term incumbent who always managed to hold in with a local base of Democrats, even against a state senator in 2000 in a district Gore won with 63%, (can you imagine that), Shaw won by the skin of his teeth. Add into the fact he did all this for decades despite being a solid conservative and Klein's statewide profile is even more impressive. Look, if he can win Miami-Dade, Broward, and the rest of South Florida about 65-35, that state's done, especially with Pinnellas and Orange and St. Lucie moving firmly into the D's column, and Alchua and Tallahassa remaining Democratic, as well as Osceola, and Hillsborough and Sarasota being toss up at best, Klein would be particularly well-poised for a Statewide run for federal office. I think Kastor is much younger, and nowhere near the profile. Bill Nelson is old, and will probably retire in 2016, when she'll be ripe ready to run for it, andstill only in her late forties.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 01:41:13 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Sorry, Nelson will retire in 2018.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 01:51:50 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Some say 2012 ...

draftalex.com
Draft Alex Sink for Governor

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by: draftalex @ Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 09:04:24 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Why?

Charlie Crist's re-elect is at 50%.

draftalex.com
Draft Alex Sink for Governor

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by: draftalex @ Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 02:11:08 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Source?

Do you have a source for that?  This would be the first I've heard of it.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 07:21:13 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Quinipiac University Poll everyone fawned over for Charlie

had him at 50% re-elect. His approval was 68%. But when it comes to re-elect it drop 18%.

Our post on the subject:
http://draftalex.wordpress.com...

The poll is here:
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x129...

The re-elect numbers are here:

                    Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom

Crist                50%    82%    20%    47%    53%    47%    
Democrat             28      4     57     21     25     30    
DK/NA                23     14     22     32     22     23    

He's below 50% with independents and women. Two groups Alex can make serious impact on by announcing.

Do they make him look like an easy pick off no, but are they pack up and go home number, no way.

His numbers are soft overall -- they approve of him because the papers fawn over him and so they think he's fine, but generally they have an inclination for change in Tallahassee.

draftalex.com
Draft Alex Sink for Governor

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by: draftalex @ Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 09:04:05 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Hate to rain on this, but

28% opposed and 23%  don't knows is not a formula for the challenger to win.  It usually takes opposeds in the high thirties or forties.  There is also a higher correlation between approval percentage and ballot box percentage than with reelect percentage.

The numbers for Martinez are the kind of numbers that mean the voters are looking for a better replacement.  38% voting for any opponent means the whole partisan Democratic voter base is already persuaded to vote against him.  42% Martinez approval means that only Republicans and Republican leaners agree with what he does and centrists have no attachment or sense of investment, iow everyone agrees that he is a partisan hack.

Btw, isn't there some decent Florida Democrat who can take on, and take out, Bill McCollum?

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by: Baystater @ Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 10:43:12 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Of course MArtinez is more vunerable

No one is arguing that. but a couple of points:

1) Re-elect is actually the key number. All of the incumbant Governors to lose in the last 8 years have had significantly higher approval ratings than re-elect numbers (See: Barnes - GA, Erlich - MD, Hodges - SC for just some examples). They all lost because the other side did their best to beat the crap out of them and they ran away from their base to try and capture the middle and hot button issues entered the race -- sound familiar (see: court ruling on gay adoption).

2) Florida and the country is best served with two good candidates for both positions. That will help us get rid of people like McCollum a well. Without someone challenging Crist -- it'll be hard to win the Ag seat or defeat McCollum.  

draftalex.com
Draft Alex Sink for Governor

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by: draftalex @ Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 12:57:07 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Bob Graham

The most successful Florida Democrat in memory was from South Florida.  Forget the "rules" and just get the right person.

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by: David Kowalski @ Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 07:15:20 AM CST

[ Parent ]

I think we're worried

about a Tom Allen situation here...a good candidate going up against who we think is a vulnerable Republican and is really not and thus wasting a good candidate.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 10:27:05 AM CST

[ Parent ]

I think that about sums it up

Crist isn't near as popular as Collins.  But even a great candidate liek Sink would probably lose by about the same margin Davis lost to Crist by in 2006, about a 5-10 point margin.  Unless Crist makes a SERIOUS series of mistakes in office within the next year or so Sink would be better off challenging Martinez.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 11:18:26 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Wasting what?

I think there is a lot of small ball going in the 2010 election for Florida. I, for one, don't predict election losses two years out.

We have two options, win a Senate race lose everything else or go for it with good candidates across the board. I don't want to see 2008 again where we win one and lose a lot of down-ballot races.

If we don't have a good Gubernatorial candidate its going to be hard to win state leg races to get the majority in 2012 or anytime after. It's going to be harder to win all the other races period.

Crist's approval ratings are good because no one even tries to whack him. The party is silent as we go through a budget crisis. If Sink gets in -- there will be no primary fight. She'll be running against him for nearly two years. His numbers will go down. With proper communication outreach to non-cuban hispanics and women, he'll start tanking. Add likely double digit unemployment and Sink's business background and you have an amazing race.

We need a good candidate for both. And no one has mentioned one good candidate for governor.

PS: Jeb Bush 1994 lost to Chiles, won in 1998. Charlie Crist lost in his Senate race very badly, now is called "unbeatable" --- give me a break on "wasting" candidates.

draftalex.com
Draft Alex Sink for Governor

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by: draftalex @ Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 12:37:20 PM CST

[ Parent ]

you've got the same problem

Here you chat on claiming we need a good candidate for both seats and that no one has mentioned a good candidate for Governor when at the same time, the same people we have mentioned for Governor are the same people you'll mention for Senate.  Anyone who coudl run statewide is an option for both seats, Alex Sink happens to be the best likely possible option for both.  Bob Graham would actually be the best option.  Maybe he'd be interested in running for Governor as opposed to going back to the senate.  

Talk all you want about Sink for Governor because of Florida's redistricting needs or whatnot, the bigger problem isn't Florida's redistricting, its how to pass the Obama agenda past 2010 and we'll need good people like Alex Sink to do so.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

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by: skywrnchsr509 @ Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 15:39:27 PM CST

[ Parent ]

He CAN run again

According to Florida law you just cannot run for Governor more than 2 terms consecutive, so he could theoretically run again in 2010.  The chances of that are very close to zero.  He'll be 74 in 2010 and doesn't sounds like he wants back into politics.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 15:46:29 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Nope ...

Of all the people named besides Sink -- Alan Boyd, Ron Klein, Robert Wexler and Dan Gleber -- only one has ever been mentioned for Governor -- Dan Gelber. The rest have ONLY been mentioned and talking about Senate.

Alex Sink is the only one any of them that has talked to the press about running for Governor. It fits her personality and her experience better.

I think any one of the rest Alan Boyd, Dan Gelber, or Ron Klein can beat Martinez. He is more vulnerable as people point out a lot -- and they are all good legislators.

And while Bob Graham would be the "best" person for either ... he's out. He's been Governor, he's been Senator, so I doubt  he would go back at his age. Though unlike most of the people in the Democratic party besides Sink, he is fighting Crist.

PS: RE: Redistricting. Two more seats in congress matter to passing Obama's agenda and more importantly the overall progressive agenda for years to come. Plus the 19 million people living there care about who is Governor of Florida a lot.  

draftalex.com
Draft Alex Sink for Governor

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by: draftalex @ Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 16:21:57 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Fallback?

Where does Sink live?  I'd like to think she could fallback on something if she did run for Governor and failed.  Hopefully she lives in a competitive house district or something along those lines.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 16:28:49 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Tampa

Honestly if she lost -- as long as she does well, which she will -- I'd hope see her run again in 2014. But if she needs a job, there will be an open mayor seat in 2011 in Tampa.

It's how Jeb Bush got elected.

As for a job -- she and Bill McBride would be fine I am sure.

draftalex.com
Draft Alex Sink for Governor

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by: draftalex @ Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 16:39:32 PM CST

[ Parent ]

So I take it the 11th district

Too bad not the 10th.  Bill Young is on his last legs.

Ya, Tampa Mayor might be a good fit to keep her active if she did fail in 2010.  There really doesn't seem like an obvious GOP successor for Governor to Crist if he hangs on another term.  The Lt. Governor doesn't seem like anything someone who would do well alone statewide.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 16:55:34 PM CST

[ Parent ]

There are a few ...

That will try to build statewide names outside the obvious Bill McCollum.

A few off the top of my head:
Marco Rubio
Adam Putnam
Rick Baker

You'll see a few run for CFO or Agriculture Comm this time around.

draftalex.com
Draft Alex Sink for Governor

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by: draftalex @ Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 17:00:27 PM CST

[ Parent ]