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LA-04: Carmouche Responds

by: James L.

Thu Nov 20, 2008 at 2:08 PM EST

The Kitchens Group (11/18-19, likely voters, 11/6-7 in parens):

Paul Carmouche (D): 48 (45)
John Fleming (R): 37 (35)
Undecided: 13 (16)
(MoE: ±4.0%)

That's a fair spot better than the last two polls we've seen of this race. Interestingly, Kitchens pegs the African-American vote at a conservative 22% (this district is 33% black), meaning they estimate that the 'Mouche is doing much better with whites than either SUSA or Public Opinion Strategies say he is. This one will probably go down to the wire.

The full polling memo and details are available below the fold.

James L. :: LA-04: Carmouche Responds

Tags: LA-04, Polls, (All Tags)

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LA-04: Carmouche Responds | 25 comments

Call me crazy

But I'm more inclined to believe SUSA. About a 50/50 tossup race.

by: ChadInFL @ Thu Nov 20, 2008 at 13:23:50 PM CST

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You're crazy!

by: James L. @ Thu Nov 20, 2008 at 13:24:30 PM CST

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Yeah...

We've been burned too much by Louisiana polls before to trust this. This looks like a 50-50 race. And right now, that means we'll have to fight to the very end to win this race.

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats

by: atdleft @ Thu Nov 20, 2008 at 14:47:41 PM CST

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Sorry everyone, but..

I don't trust any polling in Louisiana. I thought:
1. Cazayoux would win by 8% (he lost by 8%).
2. Boustany and Scalise wouldn't win by more than 10-15% (both were blowouts).
3 Landrieu would win in double digits (she won by 6%).

Louisiana was hard to figure this year. I don't believe a poll that has a Democrat up by double digits in this district. I'd love to be surprised, but I don't.

I also believe the Carmouche's chances is not much better than 50/50.

by: Tarheeman1993 @ Thu Nov 20, 2008 at 13:51:41 PM CST

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I told everybody

there would be last minute tightening becuase of Jindall's push for Kennedy and a big wave of unresponded to advertising. I never believed any of the polls with her up big. Cazayoux was a surprise to me too. He might have won had Barack Obama helped him rally black voters. I also never thought Scalise of Boustany would be held to 10-15 point margins. Anybody who did think Landrieu would win by double digits is stupid and doesn't know the state. I know the state, and the area in particular. Special elections and runoffs almost always favor Democrats in Louisiana, polling is usually off too. That's why Jindall didn't win in 2003, its why we don't have Senator Suzanne Hitch-Terrell, its why we have Representative Charles Melancon.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Thu Nov 20, 2008 at 16:35:30 PM CST

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I disagree with you that

anybody who thought Landrieu would win by double digits is stupid. She won by 6%, which is not that far from 10%. If you were specifically talking about me, that's okay. I can be stupid with the best of them.

by: Tarheeman1993 @ Thu Nov 20, 2008 at 18:45:07 PM CST

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I just now Louisiana and how weak

Landrieu's position has always been. I never thought she was going to win by 10-16 points and I told everyone this. I just meant that none of your examples except for Cazayoux were good ones.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Thu Nov 20, 2008 at 18:49:33 PM CST

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My friend,

No offense was taken. Louisiana is the hardest state for me to predict in the South. I am from NC, and usually the political pundits peg us correctly the day before the election.

by: Tarheeman1993 @ Thu Nov 20, 2008 at 18:54:08 PM CST

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Jindal

Can you please explain how this jackass remains so popular? From everything I've read about his administration it appears he has absolutely no accomplishments to speak of and doesn't want to take a stand on anything. Is it just that Blanco set the bar so low that any fool looks good in comparison?

by: ChadInFL @ Thu Nov 20, 2008 at 18:49:58 PM CST

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Jindall's a Republican

and is very good at looking like he's getting things done.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Thu Nov 20, 2008 at 19:16:58 PM CST

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Is his ethnicity a problem at all in LA?

You would think that his Indian heritage would hurt him with conservatives who might think he's Hindu or Muslim. I guess it's not a problem considering his popularity. Suppose that's a good thing.

by: ChadInFL @ Thu Nov 20, 2008 at 19:27:45 PM CST

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I wonder if

David Duke endorsed Jindal.

by: Tarheeman1993 @ Thu Nov 20, 2008 at 19:29:45 PM CST

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Actually

racists like him because he;s not black. he's just as conservative as they are, and by supporting him, the racists come off as tolerant to minorities.

Senator Cazayoux 2010

by: NOLAproud @ Thu Nov 20, 2008 at 19:31:30 PM CST

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Hah that's funny

The racists probably do have more positive encounters with people of Indian descent from their local jiffy store than they do with blacks anyway. Makes sense.

by: ChadInFL @ Thu Nov 20, 2008 at 19:54:39 PM CST

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I agreed with those predictions

but it turns out that I was wrong, and specifically I was wrong in predicting a Democratic wave. In retrospect, I realized that I could explain much of what happened simply by mentally removing the wave prediction from my perception.

Thus, my conclusion that there was no wave.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Thu Nov 20, 2008 at 16:39:40 PM CST

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That's how I see it too.

I kept hearing that Scalise and Boustany would not win by as large of a margin. All summer long it appeared that Kennedy didn't have any traction. I saw the poll (albeit internal) that had Cazayoux up by something like 17%.

by: Tarheeman1993 @ Thu Nov 20, 2008 at 20:13:25 PM CST

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I always thought

I had always thought people were delusional about our chances in LA-01. That is one of the most conservative districts in the U.S. I don't think ANY Democrat could come within 15 points there against even a Bill Sali/Jean Schmidt type of nutter.

by: ChadInFL @ Thu Nov 20, 2008 at 20:29:19 PM CST

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Well, if there really were a Democratic tsunami

or, in other words, the Republican brand were really so toxic that it was basically radioactive (much more than just the commander-in-chief, mind you), then we might get within 10-15 points there.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Thu Nov 20, 2008 at 20:51:07 PM CST

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Reminds my of Marshall's district

I think we're just going to have to wait and see.

by: andgarden @ Thu Nov 20, 2008 at 13:53:27 PM CST

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Looks nice...

But I don't believe it. We have ourselves a toss-up. We'll need to work to the very end to squeak out any kind of win here.

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats

by: atdleft @ Thu Nov 20, 2008 at 14:52:01 PM CST

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these look far more believable

than SUSA and that other pollster's results. They way over-estimated Flemings white support, and Republican turnout.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Thu Nov 20, 2008 at 16:36:37 PM CST

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I was thinking that

After looking at the SUSA crosstabs it would seem voter ID may be skewed towards republicans. Louisiana may be trending republican, but I doubt the self ID for LA-04 is only 46D/41R. A 5 point advantage sounds too small, don't you think?

by: ChadInFL @ Thu Nov 20, 2008 at 19:57:42 PM CST

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But it's a southern state.

Which means you never know who's reporting their registered affiliation or their current affiliation, or even if those are the same.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Thu Nov 20, 2008 at 20:49:48 PM CST

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Speaking of responses...

Has Jim Martin responded to Chambliss's shit yet?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Thu Nov 20, 2008 at 20:51:32 PM CST

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off topic alert

:) not that I mind though.

by: Andrew @ Fri Nov 21, 2008 at 01:32:39 AM CST

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LA-04: Carmouche Responds | 25 comments