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GA-Sen: Chambliss Leads by 4

by: James L.

Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 3:17 PM EST

Rasmussen (11/18, likely voters):

Jim Martin (D): 46
Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 50
(MoE: ±4%)

So far, both publicly-released runoff period polls (R2K being the other) have showed little movement since November 4th. Chambliss still retains a slight lead, but as Nate Silver says, likely voter models are tough to set for special-type elections, and it's difficult to make assumptions about turnout. Incredibly, 88% of Georgian voters say they are "certain" to vote in this runoff, which is a bit hard to believe considering that voter turnout was over 20 points lower on November 4th. In this race, so much will come down to getting out the vote, making the outcome difficult to predict.

I'm told that another pollster is about to go into the field here tomorrow, so we should have some more poll results to pick apart in a few days.

James L. :: GA-Sen: Chambliss Leads by 4

Tags: GA-Sen, Polls, (All Tags)

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GA-Sen: Chambliss Leads by 4 | 22 comments

Interesting

This election is on my birthday, December 2nd.

by: ChadInFL @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 14:27:32 PM CST

by: you @ soon

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Here's to hoping you have a better birthday than Ted Stevens did

;)

Your go-to source for great sarcasm

by: DGM @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 14:28:58 PM CST

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Well you can never be entirely sure

For all I know someone might have broken into my house, stolen my furniture and replaced it with better furniture. If it happened to Ted Stevens it could happen to me.

by: ChadInFL @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 14:33:13 PM CST

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Happy Birthday...

Let's see if we can convince your neighbors to the north to give you (and all the rest of us!) a really nice b-day present! ;-)

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats

by: atdleft @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 14:31:58 PM CST

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Happy early B-day to my fav SSP poster evarr.

And many more, good sir!

by: Tyler Oakley @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 14:51:46 PM CST

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Ahh, if only I'd been around in 2004.

I turned 18 just days before the general election.

Sorry, I voted in Connecticut.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 17:10:43 PM CST

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¿¡Dónde los yikes?!

Will we see any change in these numbers??!! I'm already getting heartburn over this. What should we do to change this & push Martin over the top?

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats

by: atdleft @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 14:33:40 PM CST

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What is it with all these poor white people refusing to vote Democrat?

We know you're pissed about the blacks and all but 1964 was a long time ago, sweeties.

by: Tyler Oakley @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 14:46:02 PM CST

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Mainly the older ones

The younger minds aren't so polluted. Give it time.

by: ChadInFL @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 14:48:34 PM CST

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If there was ever going to be

a Chambliss "macaca" moment...now would be a good time.

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

by: nrafter530 @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 14:58:04 PM CST

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Simple Math

Turnout on election day was 4 million voters. Estimated turnout for the special election is 1.5 million. Get half of Jim Martin's voters out to the polls and he wins. Turnout is unpredictable because we don't know who will show up. Will (although I doubt) Obama supporters be motivated to show up and give Martin a boost?

Hopefully Obama's ground team can organize in a way that gets the vote out. Utilize the colleges, churches, etc. The plan is there. Do we have the volunteer power to do it?

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 15:32:16 PM CST

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Get ACORN to rig the election

Sounds like a good plan to me.

by: ChadInFL @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 15:39:58 PM CST

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PPP will be polling it

'Each of the next two Mondays.

by: MichiganLiberal @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 15:43:43 PM CST

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Martin has one vote already banked

Me.

And I also voted for the Democrat for Public Service Commission and the more progressive (or at the very least less insanely right-wing) candidate for Court of Appeals (Sara Doyle).

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

by: TheUnknown285 @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 15:45:55 PM CST

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Early voting?

Can people vote early in the run-off? If so we need to take full advantage of that as we did in the general.

by: ChadInFL @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 16:16:27 PM CST

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Yes they can (pun unintended but still very fitting).

The Secretary of State's website lists the locations and days:

sos.ga.gov/elections

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

by: TheUnknown285 @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 16:24:05 PM CST

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Bill Clinton rallying for Martin: "We don't need a firewall. We need a bridge."

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

by: TheUnknown285 @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 17:17:15 PM CST

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Has Anyone Seen

The November 17th episode of the Daily Show? Hilarious segment about the Senate races in MN, AK, and GA. Especially the Georgia one, that was funny!

by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 18:14:14 PM CST

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early voting

It appears AA turnout is down in early voting so far. I'm wondering what PPP will come up with.

by: mikeel @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 20:23:26 PM CST

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Black turnout in early voting way off mark from general

my diary on this from earlier today - http://www.progressiveelectora...

by: politicalal @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 20:41:04 PM CST

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24% aint gonna cut it

We have to get the black vote to be at least 29% of the electorate to have a chance.

by: BillNolan @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 20:56:53 PM CST

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may take more than that

may take 31-32 percent but I'm hopeful that we will rally the troops

by: politicalal @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 21:04:49 PM CST

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GA-Sen: Chambliss Leads by 4 | 22 comments

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GA-Sen: Chambliss Leads by 4

by: James L.

Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 3:17 PM EST

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