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NY-Sen-B: If Hillary Clinton Becomes Secretary of State...

by: DavidNYC

Mon Nov 17, 2008 at 12:51 PM EST


Then who would Gov. David Paterson appoint in her stead? Paterson needs to think about, among other things, a) removing potential threats to his governorship and b) earning some serious favors and goodwill. Picking AG Andrew Cuomo ships a contender off to DC, and would also let Paterson earn a second chit with an appointment to the Attorney General post.

Alternately (as Trapper John suggested to me), he could pick someone like Rep. Nydia Velazquez (NY-12), which might burnish his support among Hispanics and women. TJ also tossed out Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown as a dark-horse choice: young, African American, and from upstate. I in turn proposed ultra-dark-horse candidate DavidNYC, but I admit the odds of a second Jewish guy from New York City getting tapped to represent this state in the Senate are fairly slim.

There's still no shortage of names out there, of course. As always, who do you think Paterson would pick, and who should he pick?

Update (James): From the NY Daily News:

Rep. Nydia Velazquez is the front-runner - for now, at least - to replace Hillary Clinton if she becomes the next secretary of state, a source close to Gov. Paterson said yesterday.

There are two other top contenders: Rep. Brian Higgins of Buffalo and Rep. Steve Israel of Long Island. Each would help Paterson with key constituencies when he makes his first run in 2010 for the post he inherited from disgraced Gov. Eliot Spitzer - upstaters in Higgins' case and suburbanites in Israel's.

Late Update (David): Looks like Clinton might actually accept, to my surprise. If true, let the games begin!
DavidNYC :: NY-Sen-B: If Hillary Clinton Becomes Secretary of State...
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NY-Sen-B: If Hillary Clinton Becomes Secretary of State... | 105 comments
Velasquez
If you never heard Velasquez attempt to speak English, you'd see why she would probably have trouble running statewide.

Having said that, she's obviously super qualified.

I'd bet on Brian Higgins. When was the last time we had a Senator from Western New York? I'm from New York City, but I wouldn't mine seeing from geographic balance here...and Higgins is not a Blue Dog.


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

Perhaps Higgins...
May be the smarter political choice, but my heart's still with Nydia Velasquez. I think she really has the heart, the head, and the guts to fill that asbestos pantsuit that Hillary may leave behind. ;-)

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats
[ Parent ]
she can hire someone
to teach her to speak English better.  That can be fixed pretty quickly with enough practice.
[ Parent ]
In fairness to Velazquez
Mel Martinez (R-FL) has an accent when he speaks. I can barely hear what John Lewis or Jim Clyburn are saying...same with Virgil Goode, Dick Shelby and Charlie Melancon. My only this is that NY will probably do well with some regional balance more so than having another woman, a minority or a minority woman. Granted fewer people live upstate and it will have less clout as NY is scheduled to lose more seats in 2010 redistricting, but maybe someone from the Rockland, Albany or Buffalo suburbs would fit the bill. So if I had to bet, I'd got with Kristen Gillibrand.  
[ Parent ]
Isn't Gillibrand from
A swing district. I remember the district had a dem lean but winning this race wouldn't be a synch, whereas no Republican can win Velazquez's or Higgins' seat.
[ Parent ]
Higgins'
seat was held by a moderate Republican, Jack Quinn, for 12 years before retiring, at which point Higgins ran and won, narrowly.  Definitely a swing district as well.

I understand the appeal of picking an upstater, but it seems that picking Velazquez might be able to help appease some of the Hispanic Democratic State Senators who are blocking Malcolm Smith from becoming Majority Leader.

[ Parent ]
Higgins' seat
Was gerrymandered to make it no-man's land for the GOP.
[ Parent ]
How so?
The district elected a Republican in 2002 and in 2004 in an open seat it gave a Republican 49%.  That hardly seems like it was drawn to be a "no man's land".

That said, I do think this should be an easy hold for Dems, but it ain't the Nadler district.

[ Parent ]
Republicans would likely contest NY-27
there are still quite a few Republican legislators in Erie county, but the Democrats would likely still have the edge here, unlike NY-20 if Gillibrand left.  
[ Parent ]
When Quinn
Had it, it was the most democratic district to be represented by a Republican even moreso than Delaware.
[ Parent ]
Picking Velazquez to...
placate 2-3 obstinate Dems from heavily Democratic State Senate seats in NYC who, for some reason, think it makes sense to make a political statement by returning the Senate to GOP control would be double dum.
[ Parent ]
True
a voice coach might work for her. I'm just thinking of the suburbs. Let's not forget just last week eight teenagers in Long Island killed an Ecuadorian man because they wanted to "beat up Mexicans"

There's a strong anti-hispanic sentiment outside the NYC (even inside NYC) and it way outranks racism against blacks there.

Still, I like her, she's smart, she's accomplished, she's progressive. I'd support her wholeheartedly.


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
What Has Velazquez Done In 16 Yrs
I worked on the Hill for a number of years and now live back in NYC.  I can't think of one major accomplishment Nydia Velazquez has had in 16 yrs in Congress.  She Chairs the Small Business Committee which is a paper tiger with little power.  I checked Velazquez's Wikipedia page and it is all fluff.  

On the other hand, I can point to tons of accomplishments from Carolyn Maloney, Nita Lowey, Jerry Nadler and other members of the delegation.  

Velazquez may have a great voting record but that alone is not a good enough reason to appoint her to the Senate especially since it isn't much different from the rest of the Dems from NY.  I don't see her holding the seat - in fact she will probably go down in a primary.

If Velazquez gets the appointment, this will no doubt be some sort of political payoff.

[ Parent ]
Others
Why pick a member of the House?  If you want to go the suburban route, three possibilities are Nassau County exec Tom Suozzi, Westchester County Exec Andrew Spano, and Nassau County Exec Steve Levy.  

Nita Lowey would be another sound pick as she has been part of the House leadership.  Louise Slaughter from upstate represents a safe seat and is part of the House leadership.  Better pick than newby Higgins by far.

Levy's in trouble
He's currently being burned for what some say is his anti-immigration stance. Eight teenagers killed a hispanic immigrant in Suffolk County last week and local Hispanic leaders are blaming his rhetoric (he's strongly anti-illegal immigration) for the killings. State Democrats are trying to avoid him at the moment.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
Louise Slaughter is 79
One can argue that she'd be a good pick and that Patterson might gain by directing opponents towards the Senate primary since she'd be a placeholder in 2010, but would she even accept?
[ Parent ]
House Rules Committee
As the chair of the House Rules Committee, wouldn't Slaughter have more power if she stayed in the house than if she became a freshman senator?  I doubt she'd accept unless she was planning on retiring in 2 years anyways.
[ Parent ]
I know this sounds corny...
But I'll likely cry tears of joy if Hillary is picked as SoS. I don't think it's a secret here who I voted for in the Presidential Primary. (And no, I was NEVER one of those crazy PUMAs! Obama had my support from June onward.)

But anyways, what would make my day even BETTER would be seeing Nydia Velasquez picked to fill Hillary's vacant seat! I've always been impressed by her, and I'd really like to see more & better women in the Senate. If Velasquez isn't picked, however, I wouldn't mind seeing Nita Lowey or Louise Slaughter picked for the job.

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats

Agreed
A quick wikipedia read of Velazquez was enough for me.  Woman, highly highly highly qualified, and being Puetro Rican is an added bonus.  She has my support!

God, this is fun.  I love cabinet appointment time, so many switcheroos happening!  Keeps me interested.

[ Parent ]
Velazquez can't hold this seat against Rudy
I'm sorry she will get killed on Long Island, Staten Island, and upstate and lose the seat to Rudy.

Higgins, and Israel are the only viable options. (Gilibrand would be great but that would put a tough congressional district in play.)

Not saying she's not qualified (she is) and she would probably be the best out of all them from a progressive point of view, but we have to think about electability.  

[ Parent ]
Giuliani isn't all that popular in New York
Not to mention he's a pretty weak campaigner and would've still probably lost to Clinton back in 2000 if he would've stayed in the senate race.

You're talking about New York as though it's a swing state in any sense of the word, when it just voted for the Democratic nominee for president by 25 points.

Your go-to source for great sarcasm

[ Parent ]
He really isnt popular here
He won the mayors office back in 1993 and 1997 because he ran as a self-discribed "liberal Republican".  I dont think people see him this way anymore in New York.  
[ Parent ]
I live on long island and they like him here.
I'm telling you Rudy is popular here and I'm fairly sure he's popular upstate.  Rudy will win Staten island due to the Italians that live their. I'm telling you we elect Peter King to congress in the district next to me constantly and he's out of his mind. Don't underestimate long islands ability to elect crazy bastards. If upstate goes republican which against Nydia Velazquez it will, Rudy wins long island and Staten island due to his popularity in the area and no one knowing who the hell Nydia Velazquez is and can hold the numbers down in NYC where he was mayor, he could win. Don't underestimate our enemy, I'm telling you a lot of people on Long Island have a man crush on Rudy and he could easily pull this out. You need someone with a base outside NYC to prevent this seat from being a fight and wasting DSCC money, Higgins and Israel accomplish this, Israel would destroy Rudy.
[ Parent ]
"can hold down the numbers in New York where he was mayor"
Spot the reason why he can't hold down NY's numbers.

Sure, Rudy could probably make a fight of this against Velazquez, but he wouldn't be an odds-on favourite and if he lost he'd be ending his career (and I'm guessing he doesn't want to take the risk). Meanwhile, I don't see Brian Higgins as the titan who will make this race a freebie and New York can elect a better Senator than Steve Israel.

Higgins and Israel are safe choices, but they aren't great choices and even that safeness is largely a function of conventional wisdom and may not stand up in reality (Higgins' difficulty in winning a D+7 district may point to campaigning vulnerabilities, for example.)

[ Parent ]
I'm not saying he's going to win NYC
but I think he does better then a generic Republican in NYC, Staten Island as I said would go heavy for him. And I believe he could not do as bad in parts (parts not all) of Brooklyn and Queens as other republicans. (there are still some Italian and Irish Areas in NYC). Maltase former district for example that we just won to take back the state senate, would be a district I think that Rudy would perform better in then a generic Republican. All I'm saying is that if he can run marginally better then a generic republican in NYC, and you guys honestly think a guy who won twice here wouldn't at least run better then a generic Republican? could win statewide if he carries the rest of the state. Which I think Rudy can do against Velazquez.  Turnout won't be high in an off year election and you won't have the great black turnout we enjoyed in 2008, Rudy Can Win! and he's batshit insane and I don't want that to happen. I know a lot of my democratic Italian Family members who would vote for him in a minute, and voted straight democrat this cycle. He will get support he has a great propaganda and a mythic aura of bullshit surrounding him.

No offense to Hispanics but her accent alone is going to turn off voters in the suburbs. If you know what's going on in Suffolk County with the situation with teenagers murdering a hispanic, is a clear illustration to me that all Rudy would have to do with White Voters is race bait and do his 9/11 bullshit speech and he would make it a 5 point race and force us to spend money on a seat we don't have to, and to risk putting Rudy in the Senate is not worth a slight variation in votes on a couple economic issues. Israel and Higgins aren't going to vote against us on anything if they are in the Senate.

Louise Slaughter is too old or I'd suggest her and Gilibrand is in a tough district to hold if she leaves.

I'm not saying Rudy would be a clear favorite, although I do think he would be a slight, but I would regard this a competitive race and it doesn't have to be.

Put up a suburb congressmen and call it a day, and spend the money on other races that will need it.

North Dakota might be a battle if the governor runs and we have to defend Dorgan. Not to mention we can pick up NC,OH,LA,IA,AZ, and KS. We have to conserve resources and assume its not going to be a good year.

This to me is arrogance to assume that we will win NY automatically which is what I think the pick is. Its not a total gimme we are the clear favorites but, the republicans do have a person who can make it a race, to assume blue states can win be won with any candidate is what got the Republican into trouble in their states and look what happened to them. If we run to far left to quickly we'll scare the moderates back to the Republicans. Slow and Steady progress in the leftward direction is the only way we will see real change, without a reversion back to the Republican Party.

Paterson I think will do the right thing and appoint one of the two, either Higgins or Israel, as an appeal to their bases in the upcoming election. I honestly don't see Hispanics voting against Paterson. The only way I could see her getting picked is to make himself less vulnerable to challenge from Rudy and help court the Hispanics holding out on the NYS Senate. I honestly think its a leak to appeal to the three morons who are holding out, and is merely a name on a short list.

Why waste money, and effort on a race when we don't have to.

Steve Israel and Brian Higgins are solid Democrats and are safe, why risk it? I don't think she's that much better then those two democrats to risk the seat. She's better but not 5-10 million dollars in DSCC funding better.

[ Parent ]
I'm sorry, but I call bullshit
I'm not going to argue as to whether or not Giuliani could win Long Island or not, but if you'll remember correctly, when Hillary Clinton ran for Senate in 2000, she lost Suffolk County, Nassau County, and Staten Island (all by double digits) yet she still easily won by 13 points. On top of this, Lazio absolutely dominated Clinton upstate, and there's no real love for Rudy in upstate New York (never mind the major population center of Albany).

To say that Giuliani is even a slight favorite in a race where Democrats have been winning statewide by double digits for quite some time seems almost absurdly pessimistic. Let me put this another way, in some alternate universe where Rudy Giuliani got the Republican nomination against Obama, do you think there would be even a hint of a chance that Obama still wouldn't carry New York?

Your go-to source for great sarcasm

[ Parent ]
Ya, I don't see it either
Had Rudy not run for President in 2008 he might have had a future statewide in NY.  But he's given democrats far too much ammo to use against him with his move to the far-right during his Presidential run.
[ Parent ]
Lazio didn't dominate Clinton upstate
relative to most other Democrats (i.e. D'Amato and Schumer in 1998).

Fact is Rudy also plays REALLY well upstate, especially against a NYC Democrat.

Now you run Rudy against Brian Higgins and Higgins would still lose Long Island but wipe the floor with Rudy in Buffalo and Rochester and still win the city. Western New York would be thrilled with one of their own in the Senate, doesn't matter what Republican runs against them.

BTW I would also watch out for Maggie Brooks, the Monroe County Executive. I think she could be a problem.

Anyway, Rudy's running for Governor.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
No I don't Obama would have lost to Rudy
He would have won by less though and comparing Barack Obama to Nydia Velasquez is delusional thinking. Obama is a once in a lifetime candidate who will take our party to heights we have never seen since FDR, and his gift for oratory is amazing and makes us proud to be Americans, no one would disagree that Velasquez simply isn't on the same level. The black base in New York would have obliterated Rudy, but these huge numbers won't occur in a Midterm election. Not to mention Obama's exposure to the White Voter was long and planned brilliantly and allowed White voters to become comfortable with the idea of voting for a black Man.

Congresswomen Velaquez will not benefit from quite as good an organization, and certainly will not have as long of an exposure to the New York State as Obama did in the primary wars, and her obvious accent and liberal voting record (which for me is a benefit but for moderates its not) with Rudy propping up the scary brown people bs is a recipe for disaster. If you recall in the Presidential Debate what was the first chink in the armor of Hillary Clinton and the first Disaster for Elliot Spitzer's gubernatorial reign? The damn driver licenses for Illegal Immigrants issue. I wonder what Rudy is going to make the first issue of the campaign and I wonder what Velaquez's response to that issue is going to be. While we might agree with Velaquez (I know I do) it's going to hurt us with moderates and Rudy is going to use this and every other dirty trick in the play book to win.

And another thing: Hillary Clinton is not Nydia Velasquez, and to be honest to compare them politically is a joke. Hillary Clinton was first lady of U.S. when she ran and was a national figure not to mention being recruited for the job by the New York Delegation. Hillary Clinton love her or hate her, is not a weak democrat and has name recognition out the ass, and can fundraise like very few politicians. She is a tough strong campaigner and knows how to cut up other politicians like few in recent history. I'm not a fan of her but she's a damn strong democrat who could crush most Republicans without breaking a sweat. It just shows how amazing a candidate Obama was.

Even saying that, Lazio only lost by that much because he fucked up royally in the debate and pissed off the women vote, which utterly killed him. He would of lost by less if he hadn't probably closer to 5.

I'm saying he's the favorite against Velasquez not against a generic democrat. I think she's weaker then a generic democrat in the none liberal urban centers of New York, and as I said Rudy has a huge name rec advantage and good will amongst a lot of voters in the none NYC areas of the state and the republicans will back him full force. Do you wish to spend money on New York because this is what's going to happen. We will win but it will cost money, and the money game can be used to win NY-26 or any of the series of Senate Seats we can pick up in 2010. Why waste money?

Maybe I'm just used to democrats in my state who I know will win before the election starts that I'm paranoid about losing, but I'm not convinced she would be a guaranteed winner. I think Higgins and Israel are safe wins; Gilibrand, Slaughter yes they all would win by less then the first two but would win, even Gregory Meeks who has said he wanted the job but was not mentioned as a possibility I think could win. I'm not 100% sure on Velasquez and that's why I don't want her picked. If she gets picked I hope I'm wrong because I hate the SOB, but I want to be safe and not risk him having a chance to get 6 years in the Senate.

With her I see a way for us to lose with the rest of them, I don't. I honestly don't want to waste time and effort in New York.

We have a lot more work to do elsewhere.

[ Parent ]
screwed up the topic subject line
Obama would have beat Rudy In New York by Double Digits.
[ Parent ]
Outside the city
they do. He's like God on Long Island.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
"Electability"??!!
Are you pulling my leg? Honestly... THIS IS NEW YORK! Maybe if we were talking about Bob Casey (PA) or Jim Webb (VA) getting a Cabinet position in an Obama Administration, I'd then be concerned about electability. I usually err on the side of caution.

But really, we're talking about a state that Obama carried by 25%! We're talking about a state that even gave Dukakis the upper hand in 1988! We're talking about a state where Rudy Giuliani now has a better chance at being elected Bronx Dogcatcher than US Senator.

So come on, please give us some leeway here.

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats

[ Parent ]
call me cautious
I would like the biggest liberal elected to the senate as possible but I would rather not waste money in New York on a Senate Race which at minimum the pick of Velazquez would cause when I can get a congressmen from outside of New York City that would coast to re-election forever to run for the seat. I would rather use the money to win a Senate Seat in Arizona or Iowa then getting the biggest liberal in New York when I can get a nice mainstream Democrat on the cheap.

I want the destruction of the Republican Party and we need all the seats we can get.  

[ Parent ]
I'm from New York
they may be Democratic voters, but it's usually because there is no Republican alternative and the Democratic candidate is a good one.

If Mitt Romney can get elected in Massachusetts, a Republican can win in New York.

...or at the very least force us to waste money there and give the Republicans bragging rights that "We have a chance in New York!"  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Senate vs Governor
I think there's a large difference on how people vote in State elections and how they vote in federal elections.  Also, Rudy and Mitt both were elected as liberal Republicans, after the primaries, I think both will have a hard time pretending not to be far right.
[ Parent ]
While I think
Giuliani would definitely do better than generic Republican, getting elected a position like Governor or Mayor is different than Senator.
[ Parent ]
Correction
Republicans can force Wall Street to waste money here.

This won't be a grassroots funded effort. Any appointed New York Senator worth his or her salt is going to be pulling in money from Wall Street left right and centre, especially with Charles Schumer helping out.

And since Rudy's going to want help against that, it drains the NRSC's coffers too. And the risk benefit equation of that tips decidedly in our direction, I think.

[ Parent ]
Three words
George Elmer Pataki.  Not exactly the most charismatic guy in the world but he was Governor two years ago.  Over the last 50 years a Republican has been Governor of NY about half the time between Rockefeller/Wilson and Pataki.

They may not be "very" Republican but even NYC has a similar record between Lindsay, Rudy, and Bloomberg.

After the 94 election, the state's House delegation was split 16 D to 15 R.  It's now 26-3 but the change is very recent, mostly in the last 2 elections.

Can we make NY the next MA, a state where no Republicans get elected on a Federal level.  Sure.  But we aren't there yet.  

A suburban is a sure bet   Count the numbers.  8 million in NYC, 3 million + on Long Island, close to a million in Westchester.  Some of the rest in smaller suburban counties like Rockland and Putnam.  Albany hasn't been a major population center since the early 1800s (it made the top 10 in one, exactly one, Census) and the Buffalo area has been leaking people ever since the awful winter of 1977/78.  

[ Parent ]
Maurice Hinchey
Maurice Hinchey is one of the most liberal members of Congress, and he has a long and impressive record in the House. Another good choice would be Jose Serrano.
Hinchey would be great
Serrano would be tough statewide, but Hinchey would be excellent...too bad he wasn't 15 years younger so he can become entrenched into that seat.

But at age 70, he's still got enough to serve out the rest of Clinton's term and one of his own.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Hinchey would be awesome
Maurice Hinchey is one of the unsung heroes of the progressive caucus in the House.

Visit Election Inspection for analysis, polls, and predictions!
[ Parent ]
NY-22 could go Republican
in a 1994 style Democratic debacle.  Its only D+5 and the kind of district that would fall as an open seat in a really bad year.  
[ Parent ]
What is your fascination with turning 2010 into 1994?
Jesus. If we have another Republican Revolution on our hands in 2 years, then it won't matter if a D+5 seat is open or not. The Republicans will take it if they pick up 50 seats.
[ Parent ]
Dued, get over it
I think we have a concern troll here. All I've seen you do is obsess over how 2010 could be another 1994 before the new president and congress are even sworn in, and if that doesn't fit the definition of concern trol, then I don't know what does.

You want to know the reasons why we lost so much in 1994? 1) the final shift of Southern states into the Republican fold, 2) the assault weapons ban (I think this was a bigger factor than the 1993 tax increase), and 3) the passage of NAFTA. Plus, a number of the seats that were lost were in states where we were weakening to begin with (FL, KY, NC, KS, AZ, etc).

[ Parent ]
I don't believe that Clinton will get SoS
Too much of this whole thing seems to be based on what some "Democratic officials" and "advisors" are saying (which suggests to me that their sources aren't the ones who would really have any information about Obama's cabinet selection, otherwise they'd be quoting "senior Obama officials" or "sources working closely with Obama on transition" or something to that effect).

With that slight rant out of the way, if Clinton is selected for something in the cabinet, I'd hope that Paterson chooses someone whose name does not begin with E, end with R, and have liot Spitze in the middle ;)

Your go-to source for great sarcasm

Don't worry...
I don't think he's in the running for anything involving an election.

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats
[ Parent ]
Good
Dude's an embarrasment to Elliots, Elliotts, and Eliots around the world (I falling into the first category ;))

Seriously, I would like to see a strong liberal take the seat, this is New York after all, so I'd be happy with Serrano or Velazquez, there is no reason to select someone from a district that would potentially be competitive.

Your go-to source for great sarcasm

[ Parent ]
Any Democrat can beat any Republican statewide in New York
With that said, which Democrat would you rather have as the next Senator? I would choose Maurice Hinchey.
Does Geography Matter?
I'm skeptical as to whether the upstate-downstate criterion matters anymore. Clinton was definitely downstate (heck, before she ran she was barely even in-state), but she made a tremendous effort to visit, talk with, and address the concerns of up-staters. As a result, it seems to me that she's more popular there than one might have expected to begin with. Consequently, I wouldn't make geographic considerations of the possible replacement much of a factor in terms of holding onto the seat.

The only way to lose the seat would be to nominate a more liberal person who could be seriously challenged by a moderate Republican. Otherwise, that seat should stay blue.

The real tactical issue is not what it means for Senate Democrats but what it means for Patterson. Geography may not matter regarding holding onto the seat, but catering to regional alliances may help Patterson's ability to govern and win his next election. Still, his race is so far off that I'm skeptical as to how much a geographically influenced appointment would matter in two more years.

On another matter, as much as I like Nita Lowey--I would have liked her to have gotten the Senate seat before Moynahan essentially tapped Clinton for the job--I think her age (71) works against her. Just as with Supreme Court appointments, very qualified candidates are often passed over in favor of other very qualified candidates who might be able to deliver more clout for the long term. I mean no disrespect to her abilities and energy--after all, Justice Stevens at 88 doesn't seem to have lost a step--but it's a factor that's often taken into account.

Does anyone think Paterson would actually lose
to a Republican in 2010?  This is a royal blue state that no Republican is going to win.  
[ Parent ]
Giuliani is running
he just hasn't announced yet, but it's all but certain.

Could he lose to Giuliani? Possibily, especially if Giuliani attempts to personally destroy Paterson and the economy gets worse and property taxes in the suburbs skyrocket.

No one thought Cuomo would lose in 1992...until he did.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
The state is far more Democratic than in 1992
Back in 1992, Republicans still usually won long island and upstate.  Not anymore.  
[ Parent ]
Lets just hope Obama doesnt pick Hillary
He should stick to people outside of Congress.  
[ Parent ]
For SoS?
Why not? It's not like this Senate seat is really vulnerable. And better yet, she can help restore US credibility on the world stage so much as SoS! I hope President-Elect Obama DOES pick Hillary for SoS!

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats
[ Parent ]
Do you really want that?
I think Hillary would make a great SOS, but why throw away a great Senate career for a job that will last 4 years tops?  After the Spitzer scandel I thought the 2010 NY Governor's race was Hillary's for the taking, but that's not the case anymore with Paterson's popularity.  

If she wants to have the most impact in the long-term I say she should keep her job in the Senate, which it rock solid safe for the rest of her life if she so chooses.  She could even be majority leader someday.

[ Parent ]
Political Wire says she accepted it
[ Parent ]
Republicans still can
btw I hate to say it, but Obama didn't exactly win Long Island by a huge margin. He did slightly better than Kerry. A Republican like Giuliani who pushes 9/11 over and over again at a time when property taxes are going up can win out there.

All he has to do is run around yelling "9/11, Paterson raised your property taxes" and I guarantee a close race.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Nobody cares about 9/11 anymore
It didnt even work with Republicans in the primary.  
[ Parent ]
I think Joe Biden revealed the counter to that
9/11 gives Giuliani a hook, unless he can string something on to that (and he was pretty terrible at that in 2007/8) he makes himself a laughing stock.
[ Parent ]
Not on Long Island
on Long Island, it still works. Long Island is incredibly nostaglic for 9/11.

Ironically, New York City has moved on and moved forward and Long Islanders feel that city folk have forgotten and that it's their job now to keep the 9/11 obsession alive.


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Exactly
Rudy is loved here. It actually makes me sick.
[ Parent ]
LI, NJ, Westchester
A lot of the Wall Streeters who worked in the Twin Towers lived in the burbs.  A lot more of the people on LI, Westchester, etc. commute daily.  The NYC Police and Fire are known for living in Staten Island and on the Island.  The 9/11 cry has teeth out in the NYC suburbs.  And the underbelly of Rudy as Mayor just never much hit.
[ Parent ]
how can you run for governor
from florida?

being normal is for the mediocre.
[ Parent ]
9/11


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
Blah?
Blah Blah Rudy blah blah 9/11 blah blah New York blah blah 9/11 blah blah Florida blah blah 9/11
[ Parent ]
Here are the
2007-08 Progressive Punch scores for the NY members of the House, plus their ages.

Top decile (of whole House):
Velazquez 98.55 (55)
Slaughter 98.23 (79)
Serrano 97.93 (65)
Hinchey 97.90 (70)
Nadler 97.49 (61)

2nd decile:
Clarke 97.44 (44)
Crowley 97.30 (46) (he's moved a lot to the left this session, though; his lifetime score is a suckier 88.52)
Ackerman 96.91 (66)
Bishop 96.88 (58)
Towns 96.79 (74)
Weiner 96.47 (44)
Meeks 96.38 (55)

3rd decile:
Maloney 96.34 (60)
Lowey 96.32 (71)
McNulty 96.09 (61) (retiring, though)
Israel 95.81 (50)
McCarthy 95.80 (64)
Rangel 95.74 (78)
Higgins 95.24 (49)

4th decile:
Hall 95.12 (60)
Arcuri 94.15 (49)
Engel 94.06 (61)

5th decile:
Gillibrand 87.38 (42)

Yvette Clarke
would be an interesting choice. I've met her, talked to her a few times. She's great.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
Hmmm...
I didn't even think about her before. Thanks for reminding me!  

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats
[ Parent ]
basically exactly what i thought
Yvette Clark would be a good choice as well.

Or should we not bother having to almost lose her seat then.......

[ Parent ]
my 2 cents on Yvette Clark
Yvette Clark is my congresswoman.  She got the old Major Owens seat in 2006 in no small part by noting that she was black and her primary primary opponent was not.  She votes correctly, but has no constituent servicing talent to speak of that I have seen, no gravitas, and has yet to sponsor any bills of note.  She is not senate material in my humble opinion.

My district is about as leftie as you can get - some black, some yuppie (numbers increasing daily), some oldschool Italian (numbers decreasing daily).  We will hold her seat without much difficulty.

[ Parent ]
Not a big Clarke fan for the Senate
She seems like a great person, and good fit for her district. But I don't think she'd be good statewide and she doesn't have the intellect that a Nadler or Gillibrand would have or the personality of a Souzzi or Cuomo. She is fine in the house, but she isn't at all ready for prime time.

I mean she did run for congress in 2006 on a platform against of I'm black my opponent isn't vote for me. Play some of her speeches upstate staten island an long island and she loses big time.

[ Parent ]
she also plays
caribbean wedge politics. almost as well as her mother, una clarke, the powerbroker who essentially installed her into the city council and congress.
not to mention her campaign was nearly set back by her having to admit that she lied about graduating from college.
the progressive community  heavily supported Chris Owens, and hasn't exactly embraced her yet.

It is difficult to get the news from poems, but men die miserably every day for lack of what is found there. --William Carlos Williams
[ Parent ]
My Vote is for Israel
He's perfect to hold this seat forever, and never even get a serious challenge. The Republican party out here is decimated and we should be able to replace him with no trouble. True he's a blue dog but he's one of the most liberal in the caucus and despite a few votes I disagree with (Bankruptcy Bill) he's been a good congressmen. All the others mentioned except for Higgins (who'd be just as good) would have difficulty holding the seat or risk putting a congressional district in play.

Israel might not want to though due to his seat on Appropriations.  

[ Parent ]
Gillibrand is quite charismatic and a top notch campaigner.
Shame she's so moderate. She'd be a kickass Governor or Senator otherwise.

And if only Lowey was 10 years younger... emo sigh

[ Parent ]
If Gillibrand is a moderate
then Hilary Clinton is a raging right winger.
[ Parent ]
Hillary and Gillibrand have very similiar views.
And yes both are fairly moderate for one of the five most liberal states in the country. Gillibrand would be awesome Senator for Colorado or Ohio. Not so much for a state that is Massachusetts without the annoying accents.
[ Parent ]
I don't think
NY state is as liberal as Massachusetts (Manhattan, Brooklyn and Bronx Yes) Staten Island-No (Obama and Kerry lost there); Long Island - very moderate; Westchester- more liberal than LI; Albany, Troy & Schenectady area-more conservative than LI; Buffalo, Saratoga-more PA than NYC. IMHO, Gillibrand would fit the whole state much better than some NYC pols would.  
[ Parent ]
I wonder
if Gillibrand would be as moderate in the Senate. Considering the district she represents, she is pretty liberal. I personally think she would be a great Senator, but I must admit I do not want to give up her house seat, which I think we would lose if she vacated it.
[ Parent ]
Someone in the 1st or 2nd decile
This is a New York statewide job.  There is no excuse settling for anything less than a solid progressive.  

What about Weiner?  He seems very to have his sights set high, often mentioned as a strong candidate for NYC Mayor.

[ Parent ]
Weiner ran for
Mayor in 05, but lost in the Dem primary. I know he's planning on running again, but running against Bloomberg seems somewhat futile.

Other than the fact that he seems like a Grade-A prick, he seems to meet all of the requirements.

[ Parent ]
What are the term-limits now?
I know they changed the term-limits for Bloomberg.  Is the new limit 3 terms or are there no term-limits at all now?
[ Parent ]
Did the term limits
Law actually pass? I believe the law was that he would seek another term and some of the City Councilman could do the same.
[ Parent ]
Not that it completely disqualifies him
But New York already has one white Jewish Senator from NYC.  Heck, Weiner's in Schumer's old district!
If Weiner's the undisputed best person for the job than that's not too big a deal, but he should probably be knocked down a couple of spots on the list if for no other reason than geography (even if you chose to leave race and gender off the table)
[ Parent ]
Wasn't RFK interested back in 2000...
...before Hillary muscled him out?  Good name that could serve him well in an election.

Of course from Patterson's point of view it might be better to appoint someone from a group (latinos, upstate, long island) that you can pander to for your own re-election.  No doubt Blago is taking the same sort of things into consideration as he ponders who he should appoint.

People are over analyzing Paterson's decision making process.
His (and Blago's) only factor in choosing a replacement for HRC and Obama is whether they will be able to win in 2010.

This bogus political armchairing of "Latinos may not vote for Paterson if he doesn't pick a Latina for the seat" or "Upstate NY will turn against Paterson in a big way and make his election bid difficult if Higgins isn't picked" are both bogus ideas.

Will the average Joe actually weigh who the Gov picks as the replacement as one of their factors in deciding whether to vote for him? Hell, half the people in the country can't even name who their district's Congressman is.

Average voter? No.
People who contribute money and will work the ground for you.  Maybe.
[ Parent ]
True but I think the majority of posts on this subject have dealt with voters themselves.
As for all the special interest groups and geographic factions, they can go take a hike. If they aren't supporting the candidate of their party with all their heart, then were never true Dems to begin with.
[ Parent ]
Good choice.
   Send Velazquez to the Senate!  

John McCain lets lobbyists shape his economic policy
No
I'd go Gillibrand all the way. Then again, I'm biased because I once interned for her in the DC office. It was a great joy to work for such an intelligent and thoughtful politician.
[ Parent ]
There is no need
I like Gillibrand, but she's a better fit for the 20th district than a statewide Senate seat.  We can get a more liberal candidate than her elected statewide in the future and picking Gillibrand could cost us a house seat.
[ Parent ]
NY-20 would be gone without Gillibrand
Republicans have a menu of state legislators they could run here while Democrats have one.  
[ Parent ]
would hillary weigh in?
i thought i read a a while back in the primary the buzz was hillary would have a great say in ny on who would suceed should she be the nom. i would think hillary would weigh in ith patterson on her replacement. im sure we will hear loads on this. i cant see her leaving this seat to someone who doesnt reflect the things she fights for-healthcare, gernder equality etc.. also-will there be a push to have a oman replace hillary? i bet so and i bet hillary given her stature will have something to say about her senate seat.
If she wants to
Choose her successor she probably could. But if Obama in Illinois is any indication, she may not want to weigh in on the matter. If Obama wanted, he could call up Blago and say I want this person appointed and we'd see a press conference within 24 hours of a new Senator from Illinois being named.

Granted Hillary won't deal with Congress in the same way Obama would, but by saying she wants this person or that person it could get a lot of people pretty upset.

[ Parent ]
A Case for Higgins
If Gov Paterson is looking to secure re-election with a landslide, he'll choose Higgins.  I grew up in Buffalo and am still very plugged into local politics there.  Higgins is a HERO in Buffalo for doing quite a bit to help development in downtown Buffalo and along a 120 acre chunk undeveloped of waterfront.

Furthermore, upstaters have long felt ignored by Albany and Washington DC.  New York City tends to eclipse the rest of the state. The last Gov to be elected from upstate was Nathan Lewis Miller who left office in 76 years ago (1922).  The last US Senator from upstate was Charles Goodell who left office in 37 years ago (1971).

It's very important to remember that New York is really two states.  NYC which until the financial collapse was doing so well that it hides the economic depression that upstate has been going through for a  long time.  Upstate New York more closely resembles Ohio and Michigan.  The Upstate economy, if upstate where its own state, would be the worst in the country (although it has been improving).  

Higgins would help on both these fronts.  Higgins is in tune with upstate's problems.  Especially those of Buffalo.  He could be in a position to help upstate and Buffalo.  Higgin's appointment would also provide some much needed attention to the area by an elected official.  

Praising a post
FINALLY, A POST OF SUBSTANCE

Cltpie28:

Just wanted to praise you for your post.

I just wrote a post expressing anger at the posters who only care about petty party politics and not substance.  Frankly, I had read so much garbage that I stopped reading before I wrote my post.

Your post has SUBSTANCE -- you cite SPECIFIC things that Higgins would accomplish as a senator.  Virtually everyone else wants a FIX -- an appointment that would dissuade other Dems from running and take the vote out of the hands of voters.  And virtually everyone else does not mention ONE thing their nominee is interested in or will accomplish.

I'm a native Long Islander and I want someone of substance representing my home state in the Senate.  You make a good argument for Higgins (whom I've never heard of).

Shalom,
ZWrite

[ Parent ]
I'd like a good senator please
I'D LIKE A GOOD SENATOR PLEASE

I have now read about 90 posts and I have NOT yet seen any analysis about the NUMBER ONE issue.  You know, who would be a GOOD SENATOR!!!!

What would the various candidates do as a senator?  What could he or she accomplish?  What issues would he or she advance?  What are is his or her qualifications, past accomplishments, etc.  I've seen NOTHING about any of these things.

Instead, everything is about politics.  Here's a typical post -- "His (and Blago's) only factor in choosing a replacement for HRC and Obama is whether they will be able to win in 2010."

Uh, no it isn't.  Certainly, it shouldn't be.  Governors should be looking for good senators, not political winners.  Looking for political winners isn't going to work anyway.  Senators should do, well, a GOOD JOB!!!!

I want a Daniel Patrick Moynihan, not an Al D'Amato.  An early Hillary Clinton, not the one who spends years running for office.  An RFK who stays in the Senate to fight for the issues the public cares about.  Not someone who is a great fundraiser.

The more I read this Web site the more I think that most posters are BUSHIAN.  And not smart enough to realize it.

What's Bushian?  Someone who doesn't give a damn about this nation.  Someone who ONLY cares about their political party.

Thankfully, it appears we have an administation that wants to be bipartisan rather than petty (ex.--lobbying for Joe Lieberman to keep his committee chair role).

If the bloggers on this Web site ruled the nation, we'd have eight more years of ideological incompetence.  Liberal ideological incompetence isn't a heckuva lot better than conservative incompetence.

Shalom,
ZWrite

PS -- The posts about the woman who allegedly barely speaks English were offensive on several levels.

They all would be good Senators
They all pretty much vote straight Democratic with slight variations, as you can see with the progressive punch scores above, they are all extremely high. rated democrats So specifics they will vote with the party on the issues and that's, get a few committees and be good democrats that's what you are going to get.

My case for Israel other then electability and security of the seat, which I do believe is the most important attribute of giving someone a Senate Seat. I don't understand why would you want to nominate someone who would do a slightly better job and be at risk every election, then someone who is slightly more conservative and can hold the seat with no money, no risk, no worry. I am an election junkie, not a policy wonk, my first concern is electability and the building of the Democratic majority. I believe in keeping the party secure and safe in the majority and slowly moving the country toward a progressive agenda, and not moving to quickly.

But on specifics for congressman Israel is he is a fairly powerful congressman having been placed on the appropriations committee, he is a solid democrat voting with the party most of the time. He is moderate on economic issues and is a solid liberal on social issues like much of New York outside of the city.

His focus while he has been in congress has been helping get middle class college tuition tax credit to help middle class kids go to college as well has been a leader on energy independence.

And forgive me if getting elected to the office makes me a Bushian, I think its important to effect change to you know get elected.

[ Parent ]
That is complete bullshit
None of us know anything specific about NY or their delegation because we aren't from there so how do you expect us to write something of real analysis and substance?  We all speculate, you people from NY throw us a bone.

In the MN who should run thread, everyone will shout out their preferences and none of them will be based on much except on locality, liberalness, and overall appeal.

Then, myself, St Paul Sage, Populista, MinnesotaMike, etc will go in and tell everyone who are actually the good candidates and what we've personally seen of them.

And about the woman who cant speak English very well, Velazquez, I youtube'd her speech at the DNC.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

she cant.  She could do fine on a script with practice but in a debate, dear God...  That isn't offensive, it's pointing out a fact, which is one HUGE taboo problem with race, everything is automatically deemed racist before any thought into what someone actually said is conducted, which completely cuts off actual discussion on race and social problems, not saying you did this as I am too lazy to go back above and read the comments.  Am I saying her lack of English proficiency should be a determinant with the electorate, no, she is from Puerto Rico, of course her English could be spotty, am I saying that it will matter with the electorate, it most certainly will.  And if she can't perform well enough in a debate due to a language barrier, then that is a huge problem.

But as I watch more of her speech, she may have just had a shaky beginning and just has a thick accent, which is a competely different story.  At first, she could barely seem to get some words out.

[ Parent ]
Traditionally ...
There has been a distinct split in the profile of the two New York Senators.  One seat has tended to be more of a lower-profile, constituent service and working class seat - Schumer, D'Amato, Javits - the guy in the trenches.  The second seat has been the national profile seat - Clinton, Moynihan, Buckley, RFK - the gravitas guy.

Does anyone see any of the Congressfolk mentioned as having that gravitas - the sheer profile - as fitting the self-conception of New York?

Schumer
has tons of gravitas.  He is also willing to get into the trenches which is why he is so formidable.
[ Parent ]
Sean Patrick Maloney
How about former Atty. Gen. Candidate Sean Patrick Maloney?  
Velazquez?
Am I the only one who wonders why Nydia Velazquez is considered the front runner for this seat?  I know she is a Latino woman which satisfies two constituencies. However, she is a very undistinguished member of Congress and she would be a weak appointment.  She has virtually no major legislative achievements and Chairs the Small Business Committee which has little power, is populated with freshman and backbenchers since almost every member tries to get off of quickly.  

She also serves on the Financial Services Committee which handled TARP and while other NY members of that Committee like Carolyn Maloney were very vocal and active during the bill, Velazquez was a non-entity.

Maybe I am missing something but I don't see Velazquez as a good appointment.  She has little appeal outside of her gerrymandered seat, has shown little ability to raise money and has not had any kind of a serious race since her first election in 1992.  I think she would be incredibly vulnerable to a primary challenge.

If David Patterson wants to pick from the House delegation, he would be much better off picking Carolyn Maloney, Nita Lowey, Steve Israel or a host of much stronger and more accomplished House members.  

NY-Sen-B: If Hillary Clinton Becomes Secretary of State... | 105 comments

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