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AK-Sen: Begich Leads by 3 Votes

by: James L.

Wed Nov 12, 2008 at 7:52 PM EST


A few minutes ago, the state of the race was as follows:

Stevens (R): 118,602
Begich (D): 117,631

And now?

Stevens (R): 125,016
Begich (D): 125,019

That still leaves some more ballots to be counted today, but this trend is excellent.

Up-to-the-minute updates are available here.
James L. :: AK-Sen: Begich Leads by 3 Votes
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AK-Sen: Begich Leads by 3 Votes | 45 comments
Any idea on where the ballots are coming from?
Begich did well in the outer rural parts, but Stevens was strong in the Mat-Su and in the Anchorage suburbs, so if this is just Anchorage reporting, the trend may not be as linear as we might hope.

Still, this is potentially very positive.

There are reasons to think that it's going to get even better
Some of the most Democratic districts are not reporting until tomorrow.  And at least one diarist on Kos believes, on admittedly flimsy grounds, that Mat-Su may have already reported.

Either way, I'm going to kick back a beer and watch Stevens go down the tubes.

[ Parent ]
You'll want to compare this map...
They aren't telling us where the ballots are from (that have been released so far)...we only know which ones won't be released today.  Others have mentioned it already.  It's the largely blue areas on this map:

http://media.adn.com/smedia/20...

The rural north, west, and south east will be counted Friday or next week.  They are currently verifying signatures for those rural votes.

We all have to remember, Obama was active in Alaska all along, pushing the early vote and the absentee vote.  It shouldn't be surprising that lots of these mail-in votes are Democratic.

Plus, we in the lower 48 forget that rural and southeast (esp. Juneau) Alaska is Democratic.  Anchorage is actually rather conservative/moderate.  The Kenai Peninsula and the Mat-Su Valley are the SUPER conservative areas.

[ Parent ]
so is Fairbanks,
normally.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
OMFG!?!?!?
Will Alaska just be over already? Please?
I Know I'm Going Bat Crazy Here In Canada!
And that makes me the closest person physically to this race!
[ Parent ]
Does that mean
you can see the United States Alaska from your house?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
"Oh Yeah" (Notice I'm Using Air Quotes)
And I can see Sarah Palin taking a shower too!
[ Parent ]
There are worse governors to see taking showers.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Sonny Perdue, anyone?

[ Parent ]
Heh. I forgot about my own governor.
Thank you for reminding me....asshole. :p

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Okay, You Just Made Me Puke Again!

[ Parent ]
OMG! Ed Asner is the Gov of Georgia?!

[ Parent ]
Worst governors to see in the shower:
Schwarzenegger.  You know his body is just completely disturbing.

Gibbons.  Probably doing something offensive/illegal.

Crist.  Probably doing something that would end his career if you told anyone.  Death threats to follow.

Barbour.  No explanation needed.

.

Best governors to see in shower:

Paterson.  Because he won't see you looking.  (Apologies to all our blind readers!)

Richardson.  Because he's the governor I'd most like to overhear talking to himself.  That man is one interesting SOB.

Schweitzer.  May be even more interesting.  Though I don't actually care to see either one in the shower.

Jindal.  Did the exorcism leave marks?

.

Now, if anyone thinks that was offensive, just be glad that this was not a DKos thread, and that neither Stephanie Herseth Sandlin nor Scott Kleeb are governors.  You have to bring a mop to those threads!

[ Parent ]
The worst to see nude would be Huckabee.
Lots of loose skin and stretch marks. I'd reckon he has a serious case of pepperoni nipples as well. shudder

On the Legislative side, I wouldn't throw John Thune out of bed. Tim Ryan either for that matter.

[ Parent ]
Huckabee FTW. Gross.
And if you're looking for pretty boys, I think Martin Heinrich has the market cornered.
[ Parent ]
No mention of Granholm?
Come on, not bad at all really.
[ Parent ]
Ahnold would be interesting. :P


Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)
[ Parent ]
We all know
We all know what massive steroid use does to "certain body parts."  Probably ain't pretty.
[ Parent ]
Lots of people...
Have probably seen my Governor in the shower.  None of them women.
[ Parent ]
LOL
tap tap tap

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
Are you sure you want to see her naked?
Then again, it seems her appearance is the only thing vaguely attractive about her.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
Have To Work With What You've Got
Palin's one of the few female governors in the country. And compared to the choices above mentioned, it's the lesser of all evils.

Anyway, I'm pretty much done talking about governors in the shower for today.  

[ Parent ]
The suspense is killing me
This + Franken + Mary Jo Kilroy + Charlie Brown.

Anyway, on another note, why haven't we had any runoff polls out of Georgia yet??

[ Parent ]
Wondered that myself
They may be waiting for the vote to be certified to make sure Saxby doesn't pull it out.  He is at 49.8%.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
What's up with OH-15?
Are there still ballots to count or what?  They have not updated the numbers in many days.
[ Parent ]
Mudflats has a breakdown of how the districts to be counted on Friday voted on Election Day:
District   Begich  Stevens   Margin

2                54.2     40.9     +13.3
5                55.7     38.0     +17.7
6                47.8     46.3      +1.5
36              53.2     41.7     +11.5
37              50.0     45.9      +4.1
38              65.3     30.6     +34.7
39              58.3     38.1     +20.2
40              58.8     37.7     +21.1

All Begich needs to do is to finish today with a lead and he should be in the catbird seat.

wow, I wish
I'd believed Begich's team now when they said the race wasn't over. That puts Democrats at 58, and continues to hurt Lieberman's influence. It'd be nice to have the first elected Democrat in federal office since Mike Gravel in 1974. Though I don't wnat to jinx us at this point. If the final canvassing and absentee and provisional ballots in Minnesota push Franken over the edge we could have 59, and then it would all be on Martin and Georgia.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
man
would that race just be ridiculous then.  If that is what it came down to.  Although, when is the special?  It could happen before the recount is over in all actuality.  And Begich could face a recount as well too I spose.
[ Parent ]
May Not Be a Recount
Begich ended the day  up 814 votes.  With the remaining districts favoring Begich, he may exceed the 0.5 margin needed to avoid an automatic recount.  He probably needs to gain another 650 votes or so tomorrow to get outside the recount margin.
[ Parent ]
In 2048
Mark Begich will run a long shot presidential campaign.

Count on it.

Also MN recount ends on Dec 5 and the runoff is on Dec 2. And the state canvassing board won't meet to decide the contested ballots for two weeks after that. So we won't know the winner in MN until a bit before Christmas.  

[ Parent ]
BUT...
First he has to lose the Democratic primary for Senate in 2020.  
[ Parent ]
Ha, funny stuff
My birthday is December 2nd and my mom's in December 5th.  Weird coincidence.  I think the LA-04 race is on December 2nd also.
[ Parent ]
wow I just noticed
your uid is not Chadlin FL, but ChadinFL. It must be tough for you, I realize now, living with such a stereotyped name. lol.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Ya ya
Punch a Chad.  Yuck it up.  lol
[ Parent ]
When it comes to Lieberman
I don't think this race affects his situation all that much. Whether its 57, 58, or 59 I don't think it effects Lieberman all that much. If we pull the hat trick and get all 3 states, then we're at 60 and that may give Lieberman a little more power but the 60 number is more symbolic than anything else.
[ Parent ]
More good news
In NY SD-11, incumbent Frank Padavan (R) has his lead cut to 523 from 700+ with more than 8k paper ballots remaining. If we pull this one out, dems will lead the state senate 34-28.

This is extremely important because 3 rebel dem senators have emerged refusing to support the current dem leader Malcolm Smith. They are a big pain in a lot of places.

Actually
Te dems will lead 33-30
[ Parent ]
Yup. From a great distance (San Francisco!), I'm pretty pissed about that.
Ever since I read that one of the holdouts was a Pentecostal Hispanic from the Bronx who hates gay marriage, and insists as a condition of his leadership vote that marriage equality not be passed by the legislature, and instead be sent to a referendum on the ballot.

Because we vote on civil rights issues all the time.  Because the right to interracial marriage was won in a popular vote.  Because desegregation of higher education was secured in a popular vote.  Because the Civil Rights Act and Voting Rights act were subject to nationwide popular votes.  So it just makes sense for civil rights for gays to be put to a popular vote, right?  Why would constitutional guarantees have any bearing on subjects like these?

Sorry, that was a bit of a tangent.  Because of the way I was raised (Southern Baptist in Houston), the word Pentecostal is a bit of a red flag for me.  And "Pentecostal Hispanic in the Bronx" means you actually sought out the stupid, instead of just being unlucky enough to be born into it.  I know that's an obnoxious thing to say, and I'm sorry.  People like these just passed Prop 8 here where I live, and I'm a little touchy.

ANYWAY.  I'd love to see this @**hole marginalized by another pickup in NY-Sen-11.

[ Parent ]
It's the same crowd
That wants a "tyranny of the majority" to rule.  That's why they like to push those ballot initiatives that only take 50% to pass.  I'm glad we raised the bar to 60% in Florida, even though that still didn't avert a gay marriage ban.
[ Parent ]
will be enough in the future
if it gets overturned.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Begich now winning!
by 814 with another around 15k in. 538 for the details.
How big of a % lead do we need by the end of counting to call it for Begich
/w out the nonsense of a recount?
[ Parent ]
0.5%
My understanding is that Begich needs to win by 0.5% to avoid an automatic recount.  Depending on how many more votes are cast, that means he needs to gain another 650 votes or so from those remaining to get outside the automatic recount margin.  Don't know if there is an optional recount provision where presumably Stevens must request and pay for it.
[ Parent ]
I heard that
there is no automatic recount in AK, the losing candidate can ask for a recount and doesnt have to pay the 20k $ fee, if he is less than 0,5% behind.  
[ Parent ]
AK-Sen: Begich Leads by 3 Votes | 45 comments

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