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AK-Sen: Gap Closes to 971 Votes

by: James L.

Wed Nov 12, 2008 at 6:57 PM EST


Great news:

It's just getting started, but early results from this afternoon's ballot counting in the contest for U.S. Senate show Mark Begich gaining ground against incumbent Sen. Ted Stevens.

The elections division still has tens of thousands of ballots left to count today and even more next week, but the latest numbers show Stevens' lead is down to 971 votes.

The new numbers, reflecting nearly 28,000 newly counted absentee ballots, are from all over the state. Election night, Stevens led the Democratic Begich by about 3,000 votes.

Before this latest batch of counted ballots, Stevens has leading by 3257 votes, so this is some excellent movement.

Altogether, the state is counting 60,000 absentee or questioned ballots today -- so there's a lot of room left for Begich to grow his vote count. On top of that, there are an additional 35,000 votes that the Alaska Department of Elections will be counting over the next week. More updates as we get 'em...

Update: For up-to-the-minute results, check here.

Update II: Friend of SSP Nate Silver says that the outstanding districts that won't post finalized counts today are Begich-friendly rural areas. (Indeed, if you take a look at the map, Begich did quite well in most of the state's rural areas.)

Update III: Begich takes the lead -- by a margin of three votes!
James L. :: AK-Sen: Gap Closes to 971 Votes
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AK-Sen: Gap Closes to 971 Votes | 43 comments
Provisionals later
None of the provisional ballots will be counted on Wednesday so presumably a tie would look real promising.
Yes!
My goodness, I guess we still have a chance here! This is an awfully pleasant surprise. :-)

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats
[ Parent ]
End of Day Update--Begich +814
Update as of 7:33 local time:

Begich 132,196
Stevens 131,382

Begich leads by 814 votes and apparently all of the remaining votes are from Begich leaning precincts.  Begich needs about 600 more votes to get out of recount territory.

[ Parent ]
Berkowitz
likewise only picked up a couple thousand votes, so he seems to be toast.
Crap...
Well, that sucks. I guess even a long record of corruption can't do in an Alaska Republican. No wonder why Sarah Palin still has a future there! I guess it's a miracle that Mark Begich may still win the Senate race.

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats
[ Parent ]
My theory all along...
...is that the extremely heavy expenditures by the DCCC and DSCC may have had some perverse consequences in Alaska -- annoying more voters than winning over anyone. It also may have had the effect of turning the races into another "Alaska vs. DC Democrats" type of battle, which is always a losing proposition for any Democrat in this resource-paranoid state. Of course, I don't have any data to back my hypothesis up -- it's always just been a hunch of mine. It's purely anecdotal, but at least one local observer seems to agree with me.
[ Parent ]
Oh yeah
...and for the record, we first started to discuss this theory back in September.

I would love to see the point numbers for the D-trip/DS buys -- I bet they were eye-popping, saturation level-type buys. They probably would have done better by scaling that back.

[ Parent ]
That makes sense, James...
Considering how hostile most Alaska voters are to the generic Democratic brand, I can see how the DCCC & DSCC ads backfired in tying Begich & Berkowitz to the unpopular Democratic brand.

Maybe they should have pulled a "Nancy Boyda" by turning down national Democratic help. It wasn't enough to save her in Kansas, but it may have helped keep the race there close.

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats

[ Parent ]
Didn't you get the memo?
You have to be CONVICTED by a non-Alaska court before you might be in trouble.
[ Parent ]
This state is a farce.
Why are they only counting ballots now, 8 days later?
Lots of other states are doing very little as well
I havn't seen an update in the OH-15 count in many days despite many outstanding ballots.  Same with a few other tiht races.
[ Parent ]
971 Votes??!!
Really? This is almost Minnesota Franken v. Coleman close! I guess the drama isn't over yet in Alaska. I hope Begich can pull this off in the next few days! 'Cuz hey, do any of us even want to think about "Senator Sarah Palin"??!!

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats
You Literally Just Made Me Puke
But good news on the recount. Looks like Begich does have a chance to pull of the "Miracle of the Last Frontier" as I like to put it.
[ Parent ]
Just to be clear...
...this isn't a recount -- these are absentee and question(ed) ballots that have yet to be counted (for various reasons).
[ Parent ]
Okay, Thanks For Clarifying
But it'll still be a miracle if Begich wins.
[ Parent ]
It's not a miracle
It's just the cunting of ballots that favor Begich more.  If this had been done a week ago, he would probably have a few thousand lead while late absentee ballots trickled in, which would likely have favored Stevens.

Early votes = +Begich
Late, post conviction votes = +Stevens

Alaska is in its non-wisdom is counting earlish votes a week after the election.

[ Parent ]
Miracle? Maybe.
Nate Silver is calling it a likely miracle now, though.
[ Parent ]
makes sense
Obama pushed early/absentee votes.  They were active in Alaska up until election day.  Plus, the rural areas, which trend Democratic, vote almost exclusively by mail.
[ Parent ]
That's what reminds me...
How important this race is. A Begich win is the difference between making HUGE inroads in this state and having Mrs. "I Can See Russia from My House!" disgrace the halls of the US Senate.

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats
[ Parent ]
Wow!
This is stunningly good news.  As I understand it, there were about 95,000 uncounted votes and these changes represent the counting of about 28,000 of those.  At this rate (hope, hope), Begich would win by more than 6,000 votes.  Berkowitz, however, would still fall way short.
Do Dems usually perform better
Do Democrats usually perform better in rural Alaskan than the moe urban areas?  If so would it have something to do with high numbers of indigenous peoples' living in rural areas of the state?
Begich takes the lead!


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Huh?
I still show him down nearly 1,000.
[ Parent ]
Refresh or something
125019 for Begich.  125016 for Stevens.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Thanks
Their website has several mirror sites that seem to update at different times.  Looking good for Begich!
[ Parent ]
where
I refreshed   closed and came back   I stil lsee Begich down by 1000

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions
[ Parent ]
Try hard-refreshing...

[ Parent ]
got it
I see it now

even Berkowitz is gaining at a solid rate.  

Do I dare to hope?

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

[ Parent ]
Eh...
Berkowitz would have to LANDSLIDE among the remaining votes in order to pull even. I think Young has won, but maybe he'll end up under 50%.
[ Parent ]
Not really
He's gained very little.  Nowhere close to the rate he needs.  Oh well, I'll take a Dem Senator for 6 years over a Dem Congressman for 2 years anyday.  We have plenty of House Dems.
[ Parent ]
Go to the main Alaska election website
For some reason they have like 3 different links to results.  Try a different one and hit refresh.
[ Parent ]
Holy Shit! You're Right
Begich is up by three votes, people! Three!
[ Parent ]
OMG! ALREADY??!!
This is amazing news! I can't believe a Democrat is really winning in ALASKA! Please wake me up if I'm dreaming! :-D

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats
[ Parent ]
With all these additional Dem votes
Maybe we'll get pucky and it will push a state house or state senate seat our way.  Both houses are very tight so every seat counts.
I'm holding out hope for a Berkowitz miracle.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Sorry Lost Cause
Young is doing better than Stevens! Nuff said.
[ Parent ]
Well, I did say "miracle" :p
And the votes they're supposed to count later this week are supposed to be in areas Begich (and probably Berkowitz) did better in.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
That's OK...
I'm still hoping for miracles in CA-44 & OH-15. Hey, we all hope for miracles! Maybe yours will come true. ;-)

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats
[ Parent ]
I think OH-15 is very plausible
CA-44...not so much.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I'd hardly call OH-15 a miracle
Kilroy is only down by around 150 votes and supposedly many absentees are yet to be counted.  She's probably favored.
[ Parent ]
AIP spoiler?
Aren't the AIP voters mostly black helicopter types who would otherwise vote republican?  If so they could be the spoiler here in taking over 4% of the vote.
Begich leads
With about 40,000 more votes now counted Begich's up by 3.  250,000 votes counted so far.  Young's lead is holding at 15,000 (data from CNN).

Looks like Alaskans chose to vote against the for sure thief but not against someone who is suspicious and surly to boot.

Begich lead at 814
The latest result gives Begich a lead of 814 out of 278,837 votes cast.  There should be around 30-35 thousand more votes to count.
AK-Sen: Gap Closes to 971 Votes | 43 comments

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