Paul Carmouche (D): 43
John Fleming (R): 48
(MoE: ±8.3%)
Check out that margin of error -- it's a monstrous 8.3 points. Now, the pollster claims that the MoE is lower (6%, according to Roll Call), but the poll's sample size is a minuscule 140, making a 6% MoE mathematically impossible. (Update: In the comments, MichiganLiberal notes that it would be possible to have an MoE that low for this poll, but doing so would require using a significantly lower confidence interval than what is normally used by reputable pollsters. Either way, it's a junky poll.)
Republicans are hyping this poll in response to a Kitchens Group survey for Carmouche that showed Dems in the lead by 10 points. If this is their best evidence of Fleming's strength, they have a lot to feel embarrassed about.
Meanwhile, Roll Call gives us a taste of the air war in the 4th:
While the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has released an ad attacking Fleming's Social Security plan and his support for a national sales tax, the National Republican Congressional Committee is going after Carmouche's record as a district attorney.
The NRCC's attacks are focused on the case of John Pilinski Jr., who Republicans say was allowed to go free after numerous arrests and convictions because Carmouche failed to prosecute him under Louisiana's habitual offender law.
"Paul Carmouche, soft on crime, wrong for us," the NRCC ad states.
The Pilinski stuff reeks of typical of out of context Republican BS, but it remains to be seen whether or not it'll stick. The Carmouche campaign is pretty livid over this one.
