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Who do you wanna see coming back?

by: Glenn Magus Harvey

Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 1:41 AM EST


Well, I don't know who else to include in the tags, but this thread is about people who lost races--even if by landslides--who we think have real potential to do something awesome.
Glenn Magus Harvey :: Who do you wanna see coming back?
Scott Kleeb: obviously, the netroots darling of this cycle.  With his coming so close in NE-03 last time, I think he should have run again there, rather than get in over his head running for the Senate seat against a non-crappy (and quite tough) candidate.  It seems that the fact that Adrian Smith sucked hasn't yet resonated into netroots consciousness the way Bill Sali's antics have, and thus it was passed around that Kleeb's overperformance in NE-03 meant that he could similarly overperform in all of Nebraska.  But he seems like he's got a future ahead of him, and I think we'd love to see him back.

Gary Trauner: I think I've mentioned several times that he's my favorite candidate, and not only that, he's almost singlehandedly built a semblance of a Democratic bench in Wyoming (of all places!).  His name's been tossed around as a gubernatorial candidate, since (to paraphrase someone) Wyomingites are more comfortable sending a Democrat to Cheyenne than to DC.

Nancy Boyda: a nearly heart-breaking loss, from the person who I've heard got DCCC money in 2004 and lost badly, then refused it in 2006 (mostly) and won a surprise victory, and then refused it again in 2008 and lost narrowly.  I remember seeing one of her announcements in her capacity as a Representative, and she seemed like a quite hard-working person who really wanted to serve her constituents.

Jon Powers: three words: Jack ****ing Davis.  Will we see more of him?  He can't really high-tail back to New York immediately either, so this one is really in the air.

Alice Kryzan: How good of a candidate was she?  Will we see more of her?  Would we like to?  I have little to no information about her.

Chris Rothfuss: the Democratic Senate candidate against Mike Enzi of Wyoming, this college instructor with chemical engineering and diplomacy experiences was in WAYYYYYY over his head.  But as my mother mentioned, this guy's got presidential-level potential, and I hope he gets somewhere.  I was very receptive to his appeal for more scientists in Congress, and while we just got one more recently (Bill Foster), there's no question that we need more.

Don Cazayoux: Unfortunately, Michael Jackson Wanted to Be Where Don Cazayoux Is, and made everyone not Happy by running as an independent and not Beating It.  This caused this One Day of Cazayoux's Life, this past Tuesday, to be Bad, because the district's African-American voters were torn by the question of Black or White, and caused a rare election-day Thriller for Republicans this year as Bill Cassidy succeeded in letting himself say "This Seat Is Mine".  So Farewell Our Summer Love, LA-06, but let's not Cry over it, because Cazayoux might Wanna Be Startin' Something since he's still got quite a bit of potential.  Will You Be There for him?

Nick Lampson: A comeback kid swept back out of office, by extremely unfriendly turf that nearly elected Snelly Dracula-Gibbr Shelly Sekula-Gibbs in write-in ballots.  Will he be back for another round once we can tip Texas's districting a bit closer back to sanity?

Larry LaRocco: does this guy have anything else he can do?  Will he wait until Risch really screws it up?  Or can he do something else?  Or is Walt Minnick the way of the future, with apologies to poor LaRocco who worked his butt off on one of the best Senate campaigns this year?  (Speaking of which, what's Larry Grant doing?)

Larry Craig: Hmm, I think we'd love to have him around!  (What about other Idahoans named Larry?  Is there something that really curses them to political problems?)

Debbie Cook: Seems like a quite awesome candidate...can we get her to run again in 2010?

Dan Seals: Will he be running again?  Or is third time seriously not going to be the charm?  What else could he do?

Elwyn Tinklenberg: How about our favorite light rail champion?  How about another run against the House Anti-American Activities Committee's lone member?

Tom Allen: I've heard that he kept the campaign relatively placid in order to position himself to run for governor.

Rick Noriega: Rumor has it that Hutchison wants the governorship.  Is Noriega our man for the job?  He ran a decent (though, according to people around here it seems, not quite stellar) campaign even though it was a serious uphill battle.

Who else do we want to see again?

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Ummm,
Scott Kleeb, depending on how much money he raised, very well could have lost by a bigger margin in 2008 because of the presidential coattails of a heavily conservative district.  He was doomed to lose either way.  

Rick Noriega for governor in 2010?  Is that a joke?  He lost to Cornyn and Hutchison is wildly more popular than him.  If you are talking about running for the open US Senate seat, I am guessing we would have a better shot with someone who loans his campaign ten million dollars... Mikal Watts sounds right, or Nick Lampson could make a comeback here.  Noriega didn't have the fundraising to run statewide in Texas.  Period.  

Dan Seals needs to find something else to do, because he performed worse with Obama coattails.  There's no room for LaRocco in Idaho, it's just too blood red.  


Lots of good people
Cazayoux - Either go for the rematch or go after Vitter.

Lampson - Deserves a nice appointment in the Obama administration in relation to NASA, his one great passion and what makes his loss so hard for the district. The House now lacks diehard NASA fanatics with seniority (goodbye Feeney, hello Freshmen Kosmos, Parker, and Sophomore Giffords).

Noriega - He's got options now that Harris is electing Dems county wide. He can go for County Judge (assuming Ed Emmett can be beaten at this point) or he can go for Lt. Gov. in 2010. The state of Texas' statewide offices are all a question as to what Hutch does (and no, Rick is not running for Governor, that's gonna be Houston Mayor Bill White's (D) job).

Kleeb, Trauner, and Boyda . . . dunno where they can go, but I want them somewhere.


Hmm, that might be a good idea
Running Dems for "lesser" statewide offices, such that people might be less inclined to be so strongly partisan on those.

On the other hand, ticket-splitting takes more effort than straight-ticket voting.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...


[ Parent ]
This is Texas
We have an odd bit of trivia we pass along. What is the least powerful office in Texas? The Governor.

Governor is the "Lesser Office" in comparison to just about anything, it's how we bi-passed post civil war laws and we never changed it.

Lieutenant Governor has all the power here and Lt. Gov. Dewhurst (R) has his eye right on KBH's Senate seat. The Rs are ready to eat their own and pass their own ideology to move where they want to for more power.


[ Parent ]
Noriega
I was disappointed in Noriega's campaign.  He wasn't bad as a candidate, but he wasn't great and he was also way underfunded.  Not sucking is no where near good enough to win as a D in Texas.  Maybe there's a Congressional District around Houston that will open up for him in 2012.

As far as Senate if Hutchison resigns, I think our strongest statewide candidates would be Bill White and Chet Edwards.  Not sure either would be interested however.


[ Parent ]
I'll get a TX diary up soon
but the Senate candidate is rumored to be former Comptroller John Sharp (D).

[ Parent ]
Josh Segall (AL-03)
That should be one of our strongest candidates in 2010. Battled Mike Rogers and outperformed Obama in his district despite no help from DCCC.

Did better than Dan Seals and a host of others where we dumped a lot of money.


Oh yeah, I forgot about him!
Though I have a suspicion that the DCCC purposely wanted to keep that race flying under the radar.  Because blowing a race up to national attention really makes red districts way harder to hold.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
There are a few I dont wanna see back
Linda Stender, Dan Seals, and Darcy Burner all for a second time lost races they should have won.  Mary Joe Kilroy will likely pull out a win in OH-15 after the provisionals come in, but she nearly blew a sure thing as well.  

[ Parent ]
Well...
I don't know about that -- they went all-in for Bobby Bright and pulled his lazy ass over the line. (And yeah, I'm going there.)

Whereas Red to Blue co-chair Artur Davis needlessly and shamefully attacked Segall in the local press for airing an ad criticizing Rogers for voting for the bailout bill. I'll never forget or forgive him for that. Rahm would have burst a blood vessel if that shit happened under his watch.


[ Parent ]
And:
What caused Linda Stender to lose and lose badly in NJ-07? Was she really that bad of a candidate?

[ Parent ]
Her TV ads were incompetent
She was this year's Lois Murphy. Actually, I also think NJ-7 is a harder district than PA-6.  

[ Parent ]
whoa
don't go there. Bobby lost his sister and brother within weeks. Bobby and his sister were very close.


[ Parent ]
Whoa...I never knew that.
What happened?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
Kleeb
I feel sorry for the guy. He ran a hell of a race in 2006, but this year he was simply up against a guy who was more well-known and better liked throughout the state than he was. I'm not even sure what his endgame was -- clearly I think he knew his odds were daunting. He didn't try to land any blows on Johanns (he never ran a single negative ad), so perhaps he was hoping to lose gracefully and set himself up for a future statewide run. But for what? And where? Another NE-03 run is out of the question -- voters aren't gonna dump an incumbent who has kept his nose clean in an R+25 district, and I don't think Kleeb is suicidal enough to try.

Maybe he can put roots down in Omaha and wait a few cycles to run for that seat. Who knows. Like I said, I feel sorry for him -- he's obviously hungry to serve, but I just can't see a path for him unless he wants to try for something further downticket. He even got fewer votes than Obama did statewide.


Kleeb
I think you are right that he has limited options, short-term, and unlimited potential, long-term. He may want to drop down to the state legislature and continue building local support by winning a leadership role there; that would enable him to keep his day job as a college prof and avoid uprooting his young family.

The other option would be for the new Obama administration to lend him some gravitas with an under-secretaryship in one of the Departments that will seem (and be) useful experience for Nebraska voters to ponder in a future election.

Or, as I've said before, Ambassador to Italy. He speaks Italian.  


[ Parent ]
my list
These candidates should try again:

1) Joshua Segall - He should absolutely, 100%, run again in 2010. He received no help from the DCCC in Alabama during a presidential year, yet came within 6 points. This should be one of the DCCCs top targets.

2) Linda Ketner - She came out of nowhere and almost knocked off a well-entrenched incumbent. Next time she'd be a top candidate.

3) Don Cazayoux, Nancy Boyda, and Nick Lampson - Our only losses in the last two cycles (other than D-bag Mahoney). Boyda gets one more shot in 2010, and if she loses again then she becomes like Mike Sodrel. Cazayoux got screwed by Jacko, but I like both options mentioned about a rematch or taking on Vitter. Lampson had the toughest fight of anyone this year, but I doubt he'd win a rematch. He'd be better statewide.

4) Joe Garcia - Many thought that Raul Martinez had a better chance of knocking off Lincoln, but Garcia gave Mario a much better run for his money. It'd be worth giving him another shot to see if he can pull it off.

5) Scott Kleeb and Andrew Rice - Both did very well given the laundry list of things working against them (deep red Nebraska/Oklahoma, presidential year, facing popular former governor/entrenched incumbent), but like already mentioned, I'm not sure what offices they should seek.

6) Dan Johnson and Rob Miller - Veterans make good candidates in red districts, and Miller overperformed this cycle. Both should try again in 2010.

7) Bill Durston, Scott Harper, and Steve Sarvi - These three should have lost in blowouts, but they all had respectable showings. Maybe a little DCCC help would give them a boost if they ran again.

8) Debbie Cook and Sam Bennett - Both were on the Red to Blue list but got no DCCC money. Rohrabacher only got 53% of the vote, so despite the district's R-lean, it seems like many are willing to consider someone else. Also, Dent represents a D-leaning district, so some expenditures could help them out.


I don't think that is right
I'm pretty sure Cook was never on R2B... At least if she was, I didn't hear anything about it, and I worked on the campaign. Ultimately, Cook would be an amazing candidate to run again with. She didn't get into the race until February of 2008, was underfunded, and still kept Rohrabacher to roughly 8 points or so.

Give her the time, and the money, and I think that she could do it. She pulled in 10% more than any candidate that ran before her.

Unfortunately, I'm not sure another run is in her. She is such a wonderful person to be around, always smiling, and always happy. Even if its 11pm and she's been campaigning since 6am. If she does decide to run again, I hope the national party will get behind her. Ca-46 is slowly but surely trending Democratic, and if she can win it, its my belief she'll be able to hold it, since she'll actually do something for the district.


[ Parent ]
CA-46: Methinks the DCCC should have gotten involved, based on my minuscule knowledge of California
but of the several major races that the DCCC ignored (CA-46, AL-03, and possibly IA-04), it seems that CA-46 might be least antagonistic to DCCC expenditures.

Thus, one potential explanation--that the DCCC doesn't want to frame the race as a D vs. R thing--is moot.

Now, the question is, did the DCCC have anything to gain by NOT blowing the race wide open.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...


[ Parent ]
Ketner and Rice
Second your motion on Ketner. A surprisingly strong performance and a refreshing breath of fresh air. I'm not sure where her funding came from, does anyone know? Will she have resources, if she tries again?

Andrew Rice doesn't need to do anything right now. His seat in the State Senate isn't up until 2010; he should stay right where he is.  


[ Parent ]
She has unlimited resources
Her family founded the Food Lion grocery store chain, so she has as deep of pockets as necessary.  I wonder, however, if there is a limit that an openly gay candidate can reach in South Carolina, at least in the current social climate.

[ Parent ]
as a lesbian
She will be more able to get past that then a gay man would. Its less of an issue with many men, even social conservatives. I think she did an amazing job and would LOVE to see her come back. She nearly beat him this time, although, next time, he'd probably be a little more prepared, but give it another shot. She just might win and serve with pride.

[ Parent ]
Perhaps you're right -- I hope at least
She was one of the great "out of nowhere" candidates of the cycle.  And it proves no one can win a district unless they try, and she came within 4% of the biggest upset of the night.  The fact that she got over 160K votes says a lot about her, and frankly a lot about costal South Carolina as well.

[ Parent ]
It also says...
...a lot about Henry Brown. Jeez, what a jerkwad of a human being that guy is.

[ Parent ]
Bill Hendrick
Amazing under the radar performance against Calvert - assuming he doesn't actually win the seat when all the votes are counted, which he might.

Visit Election Inspection for analysis, polls, and predictions!

Boyda I'd like to see appointed to something
Re-runs are fine for reasonable candidates who lost in districts that were just too red for them.

But let's be honest - most of the time, that means the representative's greatest quality would have been not being a Republican.

Whereas Boyda was actually pretty good, trying to join the Blue Dogs notwithstanding. I think she should slide into a decent Interior/Agriculture job in Washington, possibly riding to head one of those departments in a few years time, then if she wants she could be parachuted back in to Kansas statewide office.


Please no more Dan Seals
I supported him, but he is a loser of a candidate. He couldn't win in a Democratic Candidate in a Democratic Tidal Wave in freaking Illinois.

And he ran what 10 points behind.


Here are a few
What about Leibham (as soon as I learn to spell his name--I've only recently realized it's "Kratovil," not "Kravotovil."), Russ Warner, William Durston, Bill Hedrick (assuming he doesn't pull it off), Tom Periello (if he doesn't hold on), Frank Kratovil (if he doesn't hold on), Debbie Cook.

At the very least, these races should be targeted in 2010.

And what about Christine Cegelis giving it another run in IL-06?

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


There are like a dozen California races to target
Every California Republican except for a few was held under 60% this year as Obama racked up on of the biggest statewide victories ever.  When districts were drawn in 2002 there was a mutual incumbent-protection plan, so the Republicans got like R+7 districts that they thought they could easily hold...well the ground is shifting under their feet.

Herger 57-43
Lungren 50-46
McClintock 50-50 at the moment
Gallegly 58-42
McKeon 57-43
Dreier 52-41
Calvert 51-49
Bono Mack 57-43
Rohrabacher 53-43
Campbell 55-41
Issa 58-38
Bilbray 50-46
Hunter 57-39

On the contrary every Democrat got around 70% or better except for freshman McNerney who beat an over-hyped challenger by 10%.


[ Parent ]
wow
Looking at these numbers, Debbie Cook did fairly well.

[ Parent ]
Nancy Boyda
Maybe Boyda should run for Governor in 2010 when the second term of Kathleen Sebelius is up.  I would like to see Sebelius run for Brownback's seat.  If she doesn't, maybe Boyda should run for that.

That would probably setup a bloodbath primary
Lt. Governor Parkinson seems to be the heir apparent for Governor of Kansas.  If Bodya jumped in it would be a very nasty primary.  I really like Boyda but she has a mostly liberal congressional voting record that would hurt her trying to run statewide in Kansas.

[ Parent ]
On the other hand
Parkinson is a former Republican. I can see that Sebelius needed to bring them onside, but that doesn't necessarily need to mean that the long-term Dems are shut out of higher party office.

I don't necessarily think she should run in 2010 - I think setting her up in a role where she can parachute back into Kansas politics as a more experienced candidate is a better idea - but I would back her in 2010.

Also, why would it be nasty? Are we talking personality clash, or do you just mean it'd be competitive and therefore potentially nasty?


[ Parent ]
Important question:
How popular is Sebelius to the people of Kansas?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
Ashwin Madia
From the little I saw of him, I really liked him and thought he had a good future.  Not sure what the post-mortem on his loss is however.

Good Point About Trauner
I actually thought in 2010 as Governor Freudenthal was going to leave office the Wyoming governorship would just fall back into GOP hands. If Trauner runs for governor, I think it would be a better fit and the Dems would have a better chance of hanging on, since he's run statewide and a 2010 campaign in Wyoming would be more focused on the state, as opposed to a national campaign like this past Tuesday.

As for Freudenthal, he would be a good fit for Secretary of the Interior. Traditionally that post has gone to a Western state politician, usually a governor.  


my picks
Josh Segall,  Alabama 3
Bob Lord, Arizona 3
Jeff Morris  California 2 (ran well for not having any money)
Bill Durston California 3 (third time the charm?)
Charlie Brown California 4 (open seat when McClintock runs for something else?)
Russ Warner California 26
Bill Hedrick California 44
Julie Bornstein Cali 45
Debbie Cook  Cali 46
Nick Leibham  Cali 50
John Dicks Florida 9  (DCCC recruit lost to Mitchell)
Anette Taddeo  Florida 18
Joe Garcia Florida 25
Bill Gillespie   Georgia 1   (increased recognition should do him good)
Tammy Duckworth Illinois 6  
Scott Harper  Illinois 13
Joe McMenamin  Illinois 19  (had raised good money in primary but failed to overcome Davis who was better known)
Mike Montagano Indiana 3
Nels Ackerson Indiana 4

I'll have more later    this is as far as I've gotten

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions


M & M's
Michael Montagano should have a long and prosperous future ahead of him; wasn't he the youngest candidate running for Congress, this cycle? The Indiana Dem Party should nurture him carefully.

Speaking of good guys who came close, when are we going to see Kentucky State Senator Dan Mongiardo try again for higher office?  


[ Parent ]
Isn't Dan Mongiardo the current Lt. Gov.?
Both Wikipedia and my memory say he is.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
thanks!
I missed that, when it happened.

I track hundreds of races nationwide, but except in unusual cases (Sam Page, for instance) Lt-Governors are not on my radar until they use that office as a springboard to run for Senate or Governor. I appreciate the update.  


[ Parent ]
continue my list
Don Cazayoux  Louisiana 6
Steve Sarvi  Minnesota 2
Roy Carter  North Carolina 5
Daniel Johnson  North Carolina 10
Dennis Shulman   New Jersey 5
Linda Ketner  South Carolina 1
Robert Miller   South Carolina 2
Michael Skelley  Texas 7
Larry Jo Doherty  Texas 10
Anne Barth   West Virginia 2

there are a few others who ran decent campaigns that got blown away that I'd liek to see come back in some capacity   like Zeitz in New Jersey 4

but these 2 lists are candidates I'd liek to see run for Congress again in 2010 and get some serious attention this time.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions


[ Parent ]
Skelly should wait...
...for redistricting. Maybe he can find himself a better district by then.

[ Parent ]
Not sure I agree with Russ Warner
He never seemed to gain any traction, despite a lot more talking up early on than most of the California longshots.

Yet he did essentially the same as most of them, and notably worse than Hedrick and Durston.

That could not be his fault. But I'd like to hear more before I'd want him to run again.

Also, if a DCCC recruit loses the primary, I'd junk him. Failure to win the primary in those circumstances is a mark of an appalling campaign.


[ Parent ]
Warner and Dicks
Warner's lack of real traction came on the fact that Drier constantly outspent him 2-1.  Drier sat on a 2 million dollar warchest to start and he's down to a million.  If Warner keeps running, he'll pull that out and maybe get some DCCC funding to help put him up more.  He did no worse than people like McNerney and Boyda did befor they won.  

As for Dicks, Dicks lost to Mitchell IMO, because of the libelous attack Dicks made for which Dicks has sued Mitchell.  Mitchell sent out attack mailings and TV ads about some connection Dicks had to a person with some shady financial deals (think a Bill Ayers like attack)and the attack worked in the primary.  I think overall, Dicks would be a solid candidate.  Though I'd like to know how that lawsuit worked out,  I can find any results about it.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions


[ Parent ]
Do you mean 2-1 literally?
Or was Dreier's CoH advantage greater than that?

Because a 2-1 disadvantage is really not that bad for a challenger.


[ Parent ]
Drier cash on hand
Drier started this race with 2 million in the bank

Both Drier and Warner raised nearly the same amount, just over a million.  When you add this in, Drier actually had a 3-1 CoH advantage.  

Warner forced him to spen nearly half of his built up CoH this past race.  If he can do that again, the DCCC can help make up the difference IMO

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions


[ Parent ]
damn you
The comment about McClintock running for something else almost made me spit my Tazo Chai (yes, I'm an elitist, and I work for starbucks,so I'm even worse), well, I almost spit it all over the place. I honestly can't see McClintock staying in one elected office for very long. Maybe someone will retire two years from now in Washington? or Arizona. lol

[ Parent ]
let's hope he goes the way of Alan Keyes
who did "quite well" against a "little-known state senator with a funny name" after carpetbagging cross-country from Maryland to Illinois.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]

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