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Republicans Left in Blue Districts

by: Crisitunity

Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 4:29 PM EST


The 2006 election left a lot of unfinished business: a number of Republicans in Dem-friendly districts who survived strong challenges and got a two-year grace period. The 2008 saw another swath cut through these folks, but there are still some left to be picked off, so this list should give us an idea of where to train our fire in 2010 (and also where to expect retirements). Here are the top 10 most Democratic-leaning districts, rated by current PVI (note that PVIs will change soon, once clearer presidential numbers by district are released) represented by Republicans, before and after this week.

110th CongressRep.PVI111th CongressRep.PVI
DE-ALCastleD+6.5DE-ALCastleD+6.5
CT-04ShaysD+5.4NJ-02LoBiondoD+4.0
NJ-02LoBiondoD+4.0IL-10KirkD+3.6
IL-10KirkD+3.6WA-08Reichert (?)D+2.3
NY-25WalshD+3.4PA-06GerlachD+2.2
NJ-03SaxtonD+3.3NY-03KingD+2.1
NM-01WilsonD+2.4PA-15DentD+1.6
WA-08ReichertD+2.3FL-10YoungD+1.1
PA-06GerlachD+2.2IA-04LathamD+0.4
NY-03KingD+2.1NY-23McHughR+0.2

Note that we're down to only 9 GOPers left in districts with Dem-leaning PVIs (with the departures of Porter, Fosella, and Knollenberg as well).

Now let's look at the flipside: Democrats in the darkest red districts. Not as much turnover here, but obviously it suggests Walt Minnick will be our greatest vulnerability for 2010 when he runs against a non-brain-damaged opponent.

110th CongressRep.PVI111th CongressRep.PVI
TX-17EdwardsR+17.7ID-01MinnickR+18.9
UT-02MathesonR+16.9TX-17EdwardsR+17.7
MS-04TaylorR+16.3UT-02MathesonR+16.9
TX-22LampsonR+15.7MS-04TaylorR+16.3
ND-ALPomeroyR+13.1AL-02BrightR+13.2
MO-04SkeltonR+10.8ND-ALPomeroyR+13.1
MS-01ChildersR+10.0CA-04Brown (?)R+10.9
SD-ALHersethR+10.0MO-04SkeltonR+10.8
IN-08EllsworthR+8.5MS-01ChildersR+10.0
GA-08MarshallR+8.4SD-ALHersethR+10.0

Nancy Boyda was #13 on the old list, and Don Cazayoux was #19. Kratovil and Markey will slot in on the new list at #11 and #13. Also, note that we now hold the 14th (ID-01) and 19th (TX-17) most Republican-leaning districts in the nation. The flipside of that, if you can imagine, would be if the Republicans held IL-02 (Jesse Jackson Jr. at D+34.9) and MA-08 (Capuano at D+33.0).
Crisitunity :: Republicans Left in Blue Districts
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Republicans Left in Blue Districts | 74 comments
Did you use the new and improved 2008 PVI?
Thanks! Great post.
No, old PVI
Not enough information to calculate the new ones yet.
[ Parent ]
I am working on the new PVI list. (n/t)


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
If you don't mind my asking
are you just talking about in California (since they report pres totals by congressional district... although the pres counts for 2008 by CD don't seem to have been released yet, or at least I'm not finding them on the SoS website)? Or are you working on that across the boards? If so, what data are you using? Because you'd need precinct-level data to calculate PVI in most CDs, which is something that mere mortals like me don't have easy access to. I was planning to calculate PVI soon for CDs that neatly follow county lines (once numbers start to solidify), but there aren't too many CDs where that's the case.
[ Parent ]
I am checking all the states' districts.
I already found the Virginia numbers on their SoS site, and so far, this is what I have:

VA-01: R+8
VA-02: R+5
VA-03: D+20
VA-04: R+5
VA-05: R+5
VA-06: R+12
VA-07: R+9
VA-08: D+15
VA-09: R+11
VA-10: R+3
VA-11: D+3

Of course, the at-large districts (Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, Wyoming) were easy to calculate based on the presidential results (as was DC), so here they are:

Alaska: R+13
Delaware: D+7
District of Columbia: D+40
Montana: R+6
North Dakota: R+10
South Dakota: R+8
Vermont: D+13
Wyoming: R+19

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

[ Parent ]
Here are the new statewide PVIs.
Alabama: R+13
Alaska: R+13
Arizona: R+6
Arkansas: R+8
California: D+7
Colorado: R+1
Connecticut: D+7
Delaware: D+7
District of Columbia: D+40
Florida: R+2
Georgia: R+7
Hawaii: D+13
Idaho: R+17
Illinois: D+8
Indiana: R+6
Iowa: D+1
Kansas: R+11
Kentucky: R+10
Louisiana: R+10
Maine: D+6
Maryland: D+8
Massachusetts: D+12
Michigan: D+4
Minnesota: D+2
Mississippi: R+9
Missouri: R+3
Montana: R+6
Nebraska: R+13
Nevada: D+2
New Hampshire: D+2
New Mexico: D+3
New York: D+10
North Carolina: R+4
North Dakota: R+10
Ohio: R+1
Oklahoma: R+18
Oregon: D+3
Pennsylvania: D+3
Rhode Island: D+11
South Carolina: R+8
South Dakota: R+8
Tennessee: R+9
Texas: R+10
Utah: R+19
Vermont: D+13
Virginia: R+2
Washington: D+5
West Virginia: R+8
Wisconsin: D+3
Wyoming: R+19

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Florida
Has anyone found the Presidntial results by congressional district for Florida in 2008?  I don't see it on my state's SOS website.
[ Parent ]
I'm keeping an eye out.
Debra Bowen's site doesn't have the district numbers up yet for California's districts, but I am keeping an eye out there. I am also checking the numbers on the State Senate and Assembly districts and will calculate their new PVI's as well.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Edwards wasn't re-elected all that comfortably
he got only like 54%, didn't he?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
53-45
He'll be a target for sure.

[ Parent ]
The others
Matheson 63-35
Taylor 75-25
Pomeroy 62-38
Skelton 66-34
Childers 54-44
Herseth 68-32
Ellsworth 65-35
Marshall 57-43
[ Parent ]
Hmm...
Marshall and Edwards seem to be the weakest of the lot.  What did Edwards do wrong this year?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Runing for Congress in a Presidential year?
Remember, 2004 was pretty tight, and 2006 wasn't all that much of a blowout (18% margin).  This is simply a tough district.
[ Parent ]
Correct
In 2006 he had a better challenger than this year and still won handily.  It's just naturally tighter in a high turnout year it seems.
[ Parent ]
18% is quite a blowout in a district like this
and didn't they redraw in 2002?  Which would mean that we need to wait until 2012 to have yet another presidential year to judge this by.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
2004
Texas was redrawn in 2004.  Edwards district was made more republican, but he was the only targeted democrat to survive that year.
[ Parent ]
But what about the other districts' results from this year?


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
His district...
is also in the "racist belt" per that graphic from the NYT that's been going around.
[ Parent ]
Makes sense
George Bush lives there.
[ Parent ]
more accurately

those are generally counties in which the liberal young people have mostly migrated elsewhere while the aging populations are or turn net more reactionary.
[ Parent ]
tx-17
For a presidential year in that district, Chet did damn good.  Pelosi was seen all year talking about Chet being her favorite for the VP slot and then it was announced he made Obama's short list, so that's not actually going to sit well with constituents in some parts of the district.  Winning by 19,000 votes in a district that is among the 20 most Republican in the entire nation (I believe) is nothing to sneeze at.  But, I agree, Chet's pounding of Van Taylor two years ago does make this tight of a showing a little odd.  However, I don't think there's a Republican who can take out Chet in this district, even with the unfavorable drawing mid-decade.
[ Parent ]
2006 was such a large margin because Chet
was able to portray van Taylor as a carpetbagger, which he was.  I think this will be more typical of his margins there.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
I suspect quite a few of those will be open
Castle (retirement or a Senate race), Herseth (Governor or Senate), Kirk (Senate), Skelton (retirement), Taylor (retirement), King (Governor), Young (retirement), McHugh (retirement).
Man, the reality of the ID-01 win is only now sinking in.
What a great pick-up. Minnick does remind me of Matheson in a few ways and I'm hoping he can stay tough in that district for the next cycle or two. While it was a bummer to lose Boyda, I feel vindicated with knocking off 'ol Brain Fade.

Start fundraising now, Walt. Your gonna need it.

Crisitunity is making an assumption
obviously it suggests Walt Minnick will be our greatest vulnerability for 2010 when he runs against a non-brain-damaged opponent.

that Bill Sali won't run for it back. Let's hope! ;-)
After all, his bill to suspend the law of gravity didn't get passed
[ Parent ]
IN-08 will change
Obama only lost that district by one point according to make calculations.  That will bring it down to about R+4.  
IN-08 will change
Obama only lost that district by one point according to make calculations.  That will bring it down to about R+4.  
But he won nationwide by about 6%.
so that's an R+5 PVI based on the 2008 election results.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Y'know, there should be a nationally-adjusted PVI
and a raw PVI that uses 50% as a baseline.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Also,
Brad Ellsworth probably has the seat for as long as he wants it. Being a young, good looking, relatively conservative former Sheriff makes him damn near unassailable. He fits the district very well.  
[ Parent ]
Same with Donnelly in IN-02
That is now a lean D district at the Presidential level.  Obama carried it 55%-45%.  
[ Parent ]
I wish Minnick the best
That's gonna be tough as hell to hold, there's going to be a crowded primary to face him in 2010, but hopefully he manages to dig in the way Gene Taylor and Jim Matheson did.
May want to update your list
NJ-03 will be represented by a Dem next year. John Adler beat Chris Myers.
The list on the left
is the completed congress. NJ-03 is gone from the list on the right (which is next year's congress)
[ Parent ]
MI-08
represented by Mike Rogers gave Obama a 53%-45% margin.  That is one of many Republicans sitting in an Obama district.  
McCotter is even more vulnerable.
The two counties that are part of MI-11 went for Obama 74-25 and 57-42, and McCotter himself only got 51-45 despite neither party having spent a dime on the race this year. He's also a jerk. I hope the DCCC targets this race next cycle.  
[ Parent ]
Bad news in OH-15
Stivers, Steve (R) 47.42%  153,867
Kilroy, Mary Jo (D) 43.65%  141,627

Kilroy way behind now according to the Ohio SOS website.

Really?
Do you have a link for that?
[ Parent ]
Here ya go
[ Parent ]
That's wrong.
They're having the same problem as the AP did -- they're counting Madison and Union counties twice. Check the math yourself!
[ Parent ]
Ahh ok
That's a relief.  They had their numbers corrected earlier, now they are screwed up yet again.
[ Parent ]
Some more district results
PA-04(Altmire):  McCain 56% Obama 43%.  One of the few districts where McCain improved over Bush.

FL-15(Posey, R):  McCain 51%, Obama 48%.  Down from a 57%-43% Bush win.  

CO-03(Salazar, D):  McCain 51%, Obama 48%

CO-04(Markey, D):  McCain 50%, Obama 49%.  This is very good news for Markey's ability to hold on in the future.  

NJ-02(LoBiondo, R):  Obama 54%, McCain 45%.  Another Republican in an Obama district.

NV-02(Heller, R):  McCain 49%, Obama 49%.  McCain wins this by just under 1,000 votes.  

AZ-01(Kirkpatrick, D):  McCain 54%, Obama 44%.  If McCain had not been on the ballot, Obama would have likely won here.  

MI-07(Schurer, D):  Obama 52%, McCain 47%.  Schurer should be fine here in this majority Obama district.  

How did you
get these numbers? Just curious.
[ Parent ]
By calculating the vote
in the counties and partial counties in the district.  If the counties were partial I use a +R or +D % adjustment if that part of the county is more or less Republican than the rest of the county.  
[ Parent ]
Do you have something
beyond just an educated guess, though, as for what percentage of the divided county is included in that CD, and just how much it deviates from the overall county lean? Take PA-04, for instance; it includes a big chunk of Allegheny County, but I have no way of knowing for sure whether that chunk is 20% or 25% of the Allegheny County vote, or whether it's 5 or 10 points more Republican than Allegheny County as a whole. If there were only one partial county in a district, then you can suss out the percentage and the lean by subtracting the rest of the full counties from the district total... but PA-04 has other partial counties too (Mercer, Butler, Westmoreland). (I'm not trying to poo-poo your numbers; they seem pretty plausible at first glance. I'm just trying to see if I can refine my own method.)
[ Parent ]
These calculations are only rough guesses at this point
Good points from Crisitunity. Pennsylvania districts nearly always have highly irregular borders. We're going to need town statistics (and in some cases, precinct-level stats) in order to accurately calculate PVI. The PA-04 example is a good one; the parts of Allegheny County closest to Pittsburgh are extremely Democratic, but PA-04 takes in lots of the northern and very Republican parts of the county.

29, Male, Dem, NY-20
[ Parent ]
Some more
FL-02(Boyd, D):  McCain 54%, Obama 45%.  McCain actually outperformed Bush in 2004 here.

PA-17(Holden, D):  McCain 50%, Obama 48%.  A nice improvement for Obama over Bush's 58%-42% win.  

FL-10(Young, R):  Obama 53%, McCain 46%.

NJ-07(Lance, R):  Obama 51%, McCain 48%.  There is no reason we should have lost this one.  We probably wont get another shot at it until after the 2011 redistricting.

WI-08(Kagan, D):  Obama 55%, McCain 45%.  A very good omen for Kagan in the future.  He should be fairly secure in this seat from now on.  

TX-02(Poe, R):  McCain 61%, Obama 39%.  Small movement in our direction by Delay pretty much made this district pretty much uncrackable for Democrats by adding in that rabidly Republican part of Harris county.

NM-02(Teague, D):  McCain 50%, Obama 48%.  

OH-07(Austria, R):  McCain 55%, Obama 44%.  

AL-05(Griffith, D):  McCain 61%, Obama 38%.  We are SO lucky we held this one.  

OH-12(Tiberi, R):  Obama 53%, McCain 46%.  Another Republican in an Obama district.

MN-02(Kline, R):  Obama 49%, McCain 49%.  Obama carried this one by exactly 39 votes.

ID-01(Minnick, D):  McCain 62%, Obama 35%.  This is actually not bad considering that Kerry got just 29% here.

NC-08(Kissell, D):  Obama 52%, McCain 47%.  Kissell should be able to hold this seat for quite awhile.  

IN-03(Souder, R):  McCain 55%, Obama 44%.  I had hopes to pick this one up this year, but it seems to be just too red of a district.

TN-04(Davis, D):  McCain 64%, Obama 34%.  We better hope to hell Davis doesnt leave this seat and run for governor in 2010(which he would likely lose anyway) because it would take nothing short of a miracle to hold it without him.

PA-11(Kanjorski, D):  Obama 56%, McCain 42%.  I believed all along that this district was too Democratic to elect a far right nutcase like Barletta and I turned out to be right.  

OH-16(Boccieri, D):  McCain 53%, Obama 45%.  Im surprised that the needle did not move an inch since 2004 here.

OH-06(Wilson, D):  McCain 51%, Obama 49%.  Once again, no movement in this Ohio district from 2004.

PA-15(Dent, R):  Obama 55%, McCain 43%.  Another Republican in an Obama district.

NY-26(Lee, R):  McCain 54%, Obama 46%.  The Presidential numbers here show that this one was always going to be a tough one to win.

MN-06(Bachmann, R):  McCain 53%, Obama 45%.  I thought we would pick this one up, but it seems to just be too Republican of a district these days.  It was the only one in the state McCain carried.


[ Parent ]
And more
FL-16(Rooney, R):  McCain 51%, Obama 48%.  

KS-02(Jenkins, R):  McCain 55%, Obama 43%.  I really dont know what happened with this one.  The headwind in this district was not that bad and Boyda seemed to be a decent fit for the district.  Maybe she can try again.

TX-22(Olson, R):  McCain 58%, Obama 42%.  Obama improved significantly over Kerry's 36% and Lampson should have been able to run eight points ahead of his national ticket as an incumbent.  He did not and lost.  

NY-25(Maffei, D):  Obama 56%, McCain 43%.  A nice blue pickup that we will never have to worry about losing.  

FL-21(Diaz-Balart, R):  McCain 53%, Obama 47%.  Despite polls showing Obama winning the district and Diaz-Balart in a tie with Raul Martinez, McCain and Diaz-Balart carried the district handily.  One of my biggest dissapointments this year.

OH-14(LaTourrette, R):  McCain 50%, Obama 49%.  

OH-18(Space, D):  McCain 53%, Obama 45%.  Some progress over Bush's 57%-43% margin in this Appalachian district.

MS-01(Childers, D):  McCain 62%, Obama 38%.  Almost a carbon copy of 2004.  

FL-04(Crenshaw, R):  McCain 63%, Obama 36%.  Some movement here as Duval county nearly votes for Obama.

[ Parent ]
6 of 15 gone
What's amazing is that Democrats didn't even bother to compete full scale in some of these districts (DE, NY-3, FL-10, NJ-2).  I think the "plan" is to have Bill Young and Mike Castle die in office because neither seems inclined to retire.  Currently only 9 of 210 districts (4.3%) with a Democratic PVI are represented by a Republican and if Darcy Burner wins, the figure is eight (3.8%).  By comparison about 20% of districts with a Republican PVI will be represented by Democrats (probably somewhere around 46 or 47 when the dust settles).

PA-6 was the focus of a major campaign in 2006 and we lost.  Roggio spent under $400 K IIRC and still managed 48%.  We lefrt that one on the table.

we should have a thread

about the campaigns that realistically were failures by Democrats, i.e. underperformed their district partisan splits inexcusably.
[ Parent ]
for some reason ..
we have a hard time finding a top tier candidate for PA-06 ... Gerlach can be taken down .. Roggio never even ran one ad in the Philly TV market .. not one .. so Roggio benefitted from people voting straight Democrat ... because there is no way he should have gotten 48% .. because no one knows who he was/is .. Gerlach should be heavily targeted in '10
[ Parent ]
Maybe Bob Roggio could run again and be the Larry Kissell of 2010, lol

[ Parent ]
yeah ..
but at least Kissell had a base .. he ran things like a gas giveaway ... so people had an idea of who he was .. most people here probably still don't know who Roggio is
[ Parent ]
MN-Sen is tightening...
it's like watching a scoreboard:

http://electionresults.sos.sta...

They update this every hour or so...

It's down to 336 votes.

Yeah,
dailykos has a front page piece this afternoon about these MN-Sen numbers inching better for Franken
http://www.dailykos.com/storyo...
This will be nail-biting the next couple of weeks...
[ Parent ]
Is this the recount?
Are these number changing because of a recount or is Minnesota still coutning absentees, adjusting for mistakes, etc?
[ Parent ]
the recount hasn't begun
The Secretary of State's Office website has adjusted the vote totals several times since Tuesday night, most often tightening the gap.

The difference will continue to change slightly over the next week or two as counties go back and double-check their figures, the office has said.

Once the tally is final, an automatic recount will be triggered. Coleman has been urging Franken to concede to spare the state the $90,000 cost of the recount, a request Franken has laughed off. It'll be interesting to see, if Franken closes the gap and takes the lead after the final county is certified, whether Coleman will be so eager to spare the state the cost.

[ Parent ]
Down to 236
1,211,542 Coleman
1,211,306 Franken
[ Parent ]
Kratovil doubles lead in MD-01!
Looks like those absentees strongly favor him.  

http://www.elections.state.md....

Frank M. Kratovil, Jr. (D)  167,101 (49.0%)
Andy Harris (R)  165,230 (48.5%)

Thanks Club for Growth.  We coudln't have done it without you.

Nearly half
That's nearly half the absentees as 11,416 were counted and 25,539 were received.  Just 14,000 to go.
[ Parent ]
Warms my heart to see my congressman on the target list
Glad to see my congressman, John McHugh, crack the top ten of potential targets. This seems a fine example of the kind of district the Democrats don't bother with but should. For the first time, McHugh's opponent this year actually had a visible presence in the district (though he still lost by 30 points or more). I suspect that McHugh's personal popularity and occasional gestures to being a moderate (working with Senator Clinton on various issues) helps him. But I think the area is trending Democratic and it looks like he'll be one of the last two Republicans in NY state.

I suspect he'll retire once Dems redistrict NY after 2010 (assuming they hold the state senate they just won and the governor's office). But it would help to lay the groundwork for a credible challenge to him now. And even if such efforts fail, they put pressure on the "moderate" representatives to go against their party more, to lessen the heat.

Here's hoping the DCCC will start recruiting for at least a respectable challenge in districts like this in 2010.

NY-26
What're our chances at defeating Rep.-elect Chris Lee?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Probably good
If only we could rid ourselves of a certain gadfly.
[ Parent ]
That seat is very tough
I just ran the Presidential numbers and McCain won it by 54%-46%, not much different than Bush's 55%-43% win.
[ Parent ]
Any idea on Obama's NY-24 numbers?
Considering Arcuri's surprisingly poor performance I'm wondering if Obama did similarly badly in that district.
[ Parent ]
Ill check for you n/t

[ Parent ]
I got some info in NY-24
Obama won it 53%-47%, with Arcuri actually running two points behind him.  It looks as if there were a good amount of "drop off" votes from Presidential race here.  
[ Parent ]
Thanks
There are a lot of congressional democrats who ran well behind Obama.  Weird considering Obama actually did some coordination with the DCCC in trying to get more dems elected at all levels of government unlike the Clinton years.
[ Parent ]
Yeah
Obama did a hell of a lot better for Democrats than Clinton ever did in 1992 or 1996.  He is probably part of the reason why we won a lot of seats(OH-01, CT-04, NC-08 and NV-03 all come to mind.  These were his seats).  His strong performance also probably helped Shea-Porter win handily in NH, likely scaring off serious opposition for 2010.  
[ Parent ]
We may wave to wait for redistricting
New York is on pace to lose two seats (probably), and I wouldn't be surprised to see Lee's district chopped up in some way that would end his career.
[ Parent ]
It's in the right place
NY-26 was stuck in the middle of several odd-looking seats. It could easily be divided up.
[ Parent ]
MA Ballot Amendment that passed
I found this amusing since I went to the dog track to gamble just last night.  Dog racing is pretty big in my area.  My city just built a brand new state of the art greyhound track.

http://www.boston.com/news/pol...

Summary: Would prohibit dog racing in Massachusetts where there is any form of betting on the speed or ability of the dogs.

The amendment passed in MA 56-44%.

I remember seeing the sign for a dog-racing rink
back when I lived in Florida.  Vaguely remember.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Curious
While you were at the track, did you see Tom Rooney packing things into a moving van, too?
[ Parent ]
Republicans Left in Blue Districts | 74 comments

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