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CA-44: Neither Side Declaring Victory

by: James L.

Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 12:53 AM EST


We talked earlier about the freak race in California's 44th District, where Democrat Bill Hedrick is running only 4600 votes short of GOP crumb-bum Ken Calvert with 100% of precincts reporting.

Well, it turns out that calling this race for Calvert is a bit premature, as neither side is declaring victory:

Inland Rep. Ken Calvert clung to a small lead over challenger Bill Hedrick late Wednesday, as officials counted votes in the tightly contested 44th Congressional District.

Neither side claimed victory nor conceded defeat.

As of Wednesday evening, Calvert, R-Corona, had about 51.4 percent of the vote and Hedrick, a Democrat and longtime Corona-Norco school board member, had 48.6 percent. All of the precincts have reported, but thousands of late absentee and provisional ballots had yet to be tallied.

"At this point, we honestly think our votes are in the provisional ballots," Hedrick said late Wednesday. "If all the votes are counted and we come up short, I can accept that. But we want every ballot counted."

Even if Hedrick falls short here, it looks like this district will be ripe for a challenge in 2010 based on its demographic changes:

By far the closest Inland congressional contest in recent years, the election was a tale of two counties. Hedrick won handily in the Riverside County portion of the district, which includes Riverside, Corona and Norco, while the portion of the district that covers south Orange County went heavily for Calvert.

Calvert's low vote tally in his home county is indicative of a shift in voter registration in favor of Democrats. The fast-growing area has seen increases in both parties in recent months, but the Democrats are growing at a faster clip than the GOP, voter registration figures show.

As Crisitunity noted, this is the second-fastest growing congressional district in California, with the majority of this growth being Hispanic. Calvert better keep an eye on his rear-view mirror.

UPDATE by Crisitunity: Here's the actual demographic data on what's happening in CA-44. Interestingly, this district is also #5 on the list of greatest gain in median household income in the 2000-2007 period (which, I'd guess, is mostly coming from the Orange County portion of this district).

--PopulationWhiteAf.-Am.AsianHispanic
2000639,008327,01934,78929,871224,626
2007837,967362,20247,42148,972351,022
Change198,95935,18312,63219,101126,396
James L. :: CA-44: Neither Side Declaring Victory
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Wow
talk about a race NO ONE saw coming. This is pretty amazing and looks ripe for the taking in 2010. Hopefully this guy or someone better funded runs again and can win.

I think we'll fall short in this one but the extra ballots in Cali might put Charlie Brown over the top. I sure hope so at least.


What did I say?
I remember saying here a while back that CA-44 had upset potential. And what happened? Jeez, if only I promoted Hedrick more! It would suck to lose this narrowly so we could all ask ourselves what more we could have done to win.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
California is guaranteed to be a redistricting mess
now that the redistricting commission referendum has apparently passed.  

Not quite...
The referendum specifically reserves for the legislature the right to draw Congressional districts. The commission only applies to state legislative and board of equalization districts.

[ Parent ]
Wait until 2010...
Now with Prop 11 passing, don't be surprised if there's a sequel that targets Congressional seats! While I usually applaud the efforts of the League of Women Voters and Common Cause, I don't understand why they're on a mission to screw up our state government some more.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Interesting
Thanks.

[ Parent ]
Calvert should know better
Calvert's first election, in 1992, was that year's closest House race. He won by 519 votes.  You'd think that experience would render a person immune to ever taking re-election for granted, even in a district that was redrawn in his favor.  

This is a shocker!!
Considering Calvert is my hometown congressman!!
Damn I wished I forced my parents to vote for the DEM I didn't think that we could win here.

Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  


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