I don't understand

Why some of these guys don't form exploratory committees. I think if Udall and Mike Moore formed exploratory committees they could force those incumbents into retirement.

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by: safi @ Wed Mar 28, 2007 at 23:43:01 PM CDT

Your keyboard to Schumer's ears... (n/t)

Check out the Guru's blog at http://www.senateguru.com

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by: senate2008guru @ Wed Mar 28, 2007 at 23:46:51 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

We need the local grassroots

To start Draft Udall and Draft Moore sites. That could help kickstart things.

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by: DavidNYC @ Thu Mar 29, 2007 at 08:43:07 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

MS-netroots?

Is there much of a Mississippi netroots to get things started?  Any "Blue" Mississippi site in the soapblox network?  Mississippi's LeftyBlogs page doesn't offer much.

Check out the Guru's blog at http://www.senateguru.com

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by: senate2008guru @ Thu Mar 29, 2007 at 17:40:04 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I'm surprised...

I think he has a lot more faith in Liddy Dole than, well, even Liddy Dole does...  She certainly seems more vulnerable than, say, Senator Warner in Virginia.  Although he's a likely retiree, iirc, she also is - she's dropped from one of the most powerfull members of the Senate, head of the RSCC while the Republicans were in the majority, to one of the weakest, a freshman senator who mismanaged her own (now-minority) party into an amazingly devasting election loss.
She's also going to have a lot of trouble with the carpet-bagger accusation.

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by: Kalil @ Thu Mar 29, 2007 at 00:27:14 AM CDT

Caught this earlier...

...but ran out of time to blog it.  So does Karl know something that we don't about a potential Thaddy Cochran retirement?  For the love of God, please give us an opportunity to run Mike Moore for a major office again while he still has some residual goodwill from Mississippi voters.

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by: James L. @ Thu Mar 29, 2007 at 02:17:37 AM CDT

Someone somewhere (possibly you, guru) pointed out

that Cochran screws over Democrats the longer he waits to declare.  Rep Pickering (R) can fundraise right now for federal races, but AG Mike Moore (D) can't until he declares (or apparently he could start an exploratory, but that's almost the same thing these days).  So Cochran's incentive is to wait a long time, whereas Allard's incentive was presumably to get out early so the inevitable GOP primary fight could be resolved.

Warner has incentive to wait too, cause the earlier he declares his retirement, the more time Virginia cons have to primary Davis.

Domenici... dunno his incentives.  If he wants to coronate Wilson, he's probably better off waiting.  On the other hand, he wants Tom Udall declared before Richardson finds himself defeated in the pres primary.  Unless Richardson would rather be Secretary of Interior than Senator, which I wouldn't know but Domenici probably would.

Anyway, that's a long way of saying that if Cochran were gonna retire, he'd probably tell Pickering and Rove early and then wait as long as possible to go public. 

On the other hand, wasn't this briefing in December or something?  That's a long time ago and Cochran probably had legitimately not decided at that time.  If he even has now.

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by: texas dem @ Thu Mar 29, 2007 at 02:19:50 AM CDT

Richardson will be . . .

. . . either Vice-President or Secretary of State in the next Dem administration.  I highly doubt he has any desire to be a senator, knowing 1.) his ambitions, and 2.) his expertise in international diplomacy.  Personally, I think the best possible scenario for this country would be President Gore, Vice-President Obama, and Secretary of State Richardson.  That's a combo that could re-establish American credibility worldwide, helping to undo the damage wrought by the Bush regime.

Anyway, getting back to the topic at hand, I would be wary of anything Rove says.  Maybe he's deliberately trying to bait us into spending our resources in Mississippi early on, when he knows that Cochran will not retire.  I wouldn't put it past Evil Personified to carefully calculate every last word, with the intention of ensnaring us.

(A side note: I say, run John Grisham in Mississippi!  He has huge name recognition, legislative experience in the State Legislature, and he can self-fund, minimizing the amounts that the DNC and DSCC would have to spend on a very red state.  Remember also, it's a presidential year, which makes a victory in Mississippi at the senate level less likely for us).

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by: The Caped Composer @ Thu Mar 29, 2007 at 14:00:43 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Actblue

A few comments have mentioned the need to create "Draft [insert candidate]" groups and exploratory committees.  I know Actblue has candidate funds for races with announced candidates.  Perhaps we should donate to those, making sure potential candidates know the money is there.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

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by: TheUnknown285 @ Thu Mar 29, 2007 at 09:23:57 AM CDT

Retirement watch?

I would say putting MS on the defense list implies that Cochran is a very serious retirement risk.

The "secondary defense" in the House portion is also illuminating. Only a couple of these aren't in this category for potential retirement reasons - IL10, PA15 and MI7, for instance, are on everybody's radar because of how close they were in 2006.

At risk of retirement are a pretty large set of names. Some of these are seats that are potentially pick-up-able if open. In order of PVI, from the latest Cook almanac:

DE AL - Castle - D+7
FL 10 - B. Young - D+1,  a classic swing seat
OH 16 - Regula - R+4
IL 14 - Hastert - R+5
CA 24 - Gallegy - R+5
CA 25 - McKeon - R+7
CA 41 - J. Lewis - R+9, but possibly easier to win if he doesn't retire, as he's potentially in corruption trouble
CA 52 - Hunter - R+9. His namesake son is his most likely replacement.
MI 3 - Ehlers - R+9
AK AL - D. Young - R+10
KY 4 - G. Davis - R+12. Only in his second term; what does Rove know that we don't? Still, I think our only candidate who could win here (Lucas) lost last cycle.
NC 9 - Myrick - R+12
MD 6 - Bartlett - R+13
LA 1 - Jindal - R+18. I assume he's on this list because Rove thinks he'll be governor.

One way to look at the Rove chart is to acknowledge that the "top defense" seats are going to be tough since they're anticipating the challenge; the way to make them more vulnerable is to go strongly on offense where they're suspecting it less.

There are a lot of worthwhile lessons to draw from the Rove chart, although the fact that it exists proves to us the most important one: these people have absolutely no interest n governance and policy, and they think the executive branch exists to advance a political party's power. Creepy.

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by: Seth D @ Thu Mar 29, 2007 at 10:16:19 AM CDT

I dont have the chart handy

but I think he was referring to Tom Davis of Virginia, who would retire to run for John Warner's Senate seat.

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by: texas dem @ Thu Mar 29, 2007 at 17:19:53 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I transcribed

all the relevant charts in my diary.  I also have a link to a pdf of the presentation.  you can print it if you wish.

Learn more about Bobby Jindal.

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by: louisianagirl @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 04:26:28 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Absolutely correct.

I wrote down the names and didn't see the states column - don't know why I assumed it was Geoff Davis. Tom Davis' seat is only R+1, and possibly gettable even as a challenge; his name on the potential-retirement list, coupled with VA's presence on the Senate list, means that Rove is probably betting on two open-seat races.

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by: Seth D @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 09:13:07 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Jo Ann Davis

Rove could have had in mind Jo Ann Davis (VA-1), not Tom Davis (VA-11).  She has suffered a recurrence of breast cancer.

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by: Vadranor @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 12:25:25 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I type the list

and provide a link to the document in my diary.  I recommend you read it.

Learn more about Bobby Jindal.

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by: louisianagirl @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 13:20:19 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Nope.

He meant Tom Davis, because he referred to his district as having voted for Bush by a 50/49 margin in 2004.  The other Davis' district is redder, as I recall.

LAgirl has it right.

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by: James L. @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 15:31:20 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

VA-01-Joann Davis

Voted for Bush by a 59/39 margin, which is not that bad for the South.  A Democrat nearly won there in 1990.

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by: Sean @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 20:53:37 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

This is why

we have a 50 state strategy.  But Rove is focused on VA-11.  See the document I cite in my diary.

Learn more about Bobby Jindal.

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by: louisianagirl @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 21:43:42 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

There is not much Rove can do

once he is out of the White House.  VA-11 would probably lean towards the Dems if it opened up.

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by: Sean @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 21:54:06 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I agree

Virginia Dems have a winning strategy in northern Virginia.

Learn more about Bobby Jindal.

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by: louisianagirl @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 23:41:18 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

If they control redistricting in 2012

they can make it nearly impossible for a Republican to win in VA-04 by bringing the black percentage back to 40% by adding back in Portsmouth and moving about 2/3rds of heavily Republican Chesterfield county into Bobby Scott's district, which is so Democratic that he would hardly feel it.

VA-10 and VA-11 can be made into Democratic districts by taking more VA-08 Democratic precincts and dividing them up among the two districts while adding some of the more rural Republican parts of VA-10 to VA-08. 

Under this plan we would be turning a 8-3 Republican delegation into a 6-5 Democratic one.

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by: Sean @ Sat Mar 31, 2007 at 00:21:47 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

NC-9

Myrick may run for Governor.  Or this is the rumor.

Learn more about Bobby Jindal.

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by: louisianagirl @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 05:06:34 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

KY-02

Not KY-04 is included in the list.  See my diary.

Learn more about Bobby Jindal.

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by: louisianagirl @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 05:08:06 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Right, that too.

Caution before commenting, Seth D.

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by: Seth D @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 09:13:44 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Cochran...

It could be that Cochran will wait until just before deadline and announce he is not running. It is strange that Rove would list Mississippi.

BlueSunbelt.Com Netroots for the Sunbelt states robwire.com My personal blog

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by: rob @ Thu Mar 29, 2007 at 11:06:14 AM CDT

are Cochran and Mike Moore law partners?

I thought someone said the two were chummy b/c they were law partners.

If true I expect you can rule out Moore challenging Cochran.

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by: Carl Nyberg @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 13:56:16 PM CDT

2008 Senate Election cycle

On the Democratic Side.

The following Senators are over 70
1)Levin(MI)
2)Lautenberg(NJ)
3)Rockefeller(WV)

All 3 of those Senators are running again. All are strongly favored to win re-election.
If Levin retire- Race becomes competive- Other than Jennifer Granholm- There is no other Democratic Replacement for the 2008 MI US Senate Race.
NJ and WV remains safe regardless of whether Lautenberg or Rockefeller runs or not.

The following Senators represent red states
1)Pryor(AR)
2)Harkin(IA)
3)Landrieu(LA)
4)Baucus(MT)
5)Johnson(SD)

Pryor(AR),Harkin(IA),Landrieu(LA),and Johnson(SD)won re-election with less than 60% of the popular vote.

On the Republican Side
Following Senators are over 70
1)Stevens(AK)
2)Roberts(KS)
3)Cochran(MS)
4)Domenici(NM)
5)Dole(NC)
6)Inhofe(OK)
7)Warner(VA)

Retirements of Domenici(NM),Dole(NC)and Warner(VA)will garantee Democratic pick ups. In KS,MS,and OK- Democrats have top tier challengers- Sebelius,Moore,and Henry. But Seat will remain Republican due to Presidential Coattails.

The following Senators Represent Blue States
1)Collins(ME)
2)Coleman(MN)
3)Sununu(NH)
4)Smith(OR)

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by: CMBurns @ Sat Mar 31, 2007 at 13:59:43 PM CDT