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So What'd We Win? (Updated)

by: James L.

Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 6:34 AM EST


Alright, one more post before I conk out for good.

As far as the House goes, what exactly did we win last night? Well, let's start by checking in with what we lost:

  • FL-16 (Tim Mahoney)
  • KS-02 (Nancy Boyda)
  • LA-06 (Don Cazayoux)
  • TX-22 (Nick Lampson)

And what did we pick up? Here's what we know for sure -- 21 23 24 seats, by my best count:

  • AL-02 (Bobby Bright)
  • AZ-01 (Ann Kirkpatrick)
  • CO-04 (Betsy Markey)
  • CT-04 (Jim Himes)
  • FL-08 (Alan Grayson)
  • FL-24 (Suzanne Kosmas)
  • ID-01 (Walt Minnick)
  • IL-11 (Debbie Halvorson)
  • MD-01 (Frank Kratovil)
  • MI-07 (Mark Schauer)
  • MI-09 (Gary Peters)
  • NC-08 (Larry Kissell)
  • NJ-03 (John Adler)
  • NM-01 (Martin Heinrich)
  • NM-02 (Harry Teague)
  • NV-03 (Dina Titus)
  • NY-13 (Mike McMahon)
  • NY-25 (Dan Maffei)
  • NY-29 (Eric Massa)
  • OH-01 (Steve Driehaus)
  • OH-16 (John Boccieri)
  • PA-03 (Kathy Dahlkemper)
  • VA-02 (Glenn Nye)
  • VA-11 (Gerry Connolly)

And what's still up for grabs? We're currently sitting on leads in the following districts:

  • ID-01 (Walt Minnick): With 90% of precincts reporting at the time of this writing, Minnick leads GOP Rep. Bill "Brain Fade" Sali by 4300 votes. Some of the outstanding precincts should add to Sali's total (but not all), so this race is still way too close to call. UPDATE: 95% of precincts are now in, and Minnick is up by 4363 votes. The remaining votes are from Bonner County (where Minnick is leading by 54-46) and Canyon County, a more populous area where Sali is leading by 54-46. Bonner has reported 52% of its vote, while Canyon only has 11% more to go. Looks like Minnick may just pull this off. (LATER UPDATE: Walt Minnick, you magnificent bastard, you did it!)
  • MD-01 (Frank Kratovil): With 100% reporting, Kratovil leads Club For Growth stooge Andy Harris by nearly 1000 votes. No one's making a call here yet, but I'd be surprised if there are enough outstanding votes floating around that would tip the outcome here.
  • VA-05 (Tom Perriello): In what could be the biggest shocker of the night, Democrat Tom Perriello is leading GOP Rep. Virgil Goode by over 1657 votes with only one precinct outstanding according to the VA SBoE. (LATE UPDATE: The VA SBoE now says the Goode is ahead by six votes.)

What else has yet to be called?

  • CA-04 (Charlie Brown): With 100% of precincts in, carpetbagging blockhead Tom McClintock is leading Charlie Brown by 451 votes. It seems pretty cruel, but it looks like Brown might not get a chance to kick that football, after all.
  • CA-50 (Nick Leibham): With 63% of precincts reporting, GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray leads Democrat Nick Leibham by 50-46 here. (Update: Bilbray wins.)
  • LA-02 (Bill Jefferson): Democratic crumb-bum Bill Jefferson will face a December general election against Republican Anh Cao.
  • LA-04 (Paul Carmouche): Democrat Paul Carmouche won the Democratic primary runoff here, and will face Republican physician John Fleming in the December general election. This one could be a chance to avenge Don Cazayoux.
  • NJ-03 (John Adler): This race was actually called for Adler by CNN earlier in the night (after an extremely bleak start) and Adler declared victory, but now CNN has moved it back into the too close to call column. Myers leads by about 1700 votes with 93% of precincts reporting. (LATE UPDATE: Adler wins.)
  • OH-15 (Mary Jo Kilroy): CNN and the AP have moved this race back into the undecided column.
  • SC-01 (Linda Ketner): GOP Rep. Henry Brown is currently leading Democrat Linda Ketner by 53-47 here, and CNN has called this race for Brown. But 26% of precincts are outstanding, and they're all in Charleston County, where Ketner is leading Brown by a 59-41 margin. The Ketner campaign is not yet conceding, believing that they still have a chance at eeking out a win here, based in part on 35,000 absentee ballots from Charleston that have yet to be counted. (Update: The bad guys win big.)
  • WA-08 (Darcy Burner): With 39% of precincts reporting, Darcy leads Reichert by a mere 60 votes here.
James L. :: So What'd We Win? (Updated)
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How about NJ-03
The last thing I saw was the Dem trailing by 1500 with 93% reporting. Any other updates out there? It's interesting that, bar the New York seats, everyone (both Dem and Rep) who had a rematch went down (we'll see how CA-04 goes though).
By the way, thanks to you all for all of the had work on this site over the past two years. SSP quickly became indispensable over the election season. Onwards to 2010!!

Forgot about that one
I just included it - thanks.

As far as high-profile repeat candidates go, Kissell, Maffei, and Massa won.

Kilroy, Stender, Wulsin and Seals all lost. Brown looks like he'll lose just barely in CA-04, and WA-08 is anybody's guess at the moment.

On the GOP side, Greg Davis, Anne Northup, Jim Oberweis, Lou Barletta, Jon Gard, and Melissa Hart were all failures.


[ Parent ]
Also Christine Jennings
nt

[ Parent ]
NJ-03
Apparently, Burlington County had a glitch, and stopped counting with 36 precincts to go.  Word is that the 36 are in Dem areas (and this in a county that went Dem for the first time in a long time).  One precinct in Camden County (Adler's base) is also outstanding.

[ Parent ]
CNN called this for Adler 52-48 with 99% in...
This one is ours phew...

[ Parent ]
OH-15- difference of 321 votes
In OH-15, at this moment, the Ohio Secretary of State's website is reporting that Stivers has 123,322 votes and Kilroy has 123,001.

I am trying to get a reliable count on the number of provisional ballots that have yet to be counted.

What I don't understand is why the AP (and the Columbus Dogpatch) are reporting this race as a win for Stivers (by a large margin!) I wonder where they got their numbers?

The count will not be final until the provos are counted and that won't be for about two weeks.

For example: registered voters who moved prior to the election without updating their registration, can cast provisional ballots on election day and if they didn't have any ID with them yesterday, they have ten days to go into the BOE and establish their new residency. Some provos will get rejected, others will be counted without further action by the voter.

So this doesn't seem to be over (to me, anyway.)

Interesting: in 2004, 218,000 Ohio voters but the The Shrub back in the White House. Yesterday (also prior to provos being counted) Barack was ahead by about 203,000 in Ohio...


Here is a possible reason for the discrepancy
CNN has the results as follows:

146,902 Stivers
134,492 Kilroy

The Franklin County results are:
123,322
123,001

The Franklin County results are the exact #s reported on the Secretary of State web site.

For some reason, the Secretary of State is not including the results from Madison and Union County, which Stivers won decisively according to CNN.

I called the Kilroy office and was told it was a "300 vote race" and that the results could be seen on the Franklin County Board of Elections web site (which by definition only includes results from Franklin County).

Why both the Kilroy campaign and the SOS office is not including results from other counties is unknown, but it seems to account for the difference in the results.


[ Parent ]
Franklin county results include the other two
If you go to the SOS results page and click on the name of the district, you can see a county by county breakdown. The Franklin county results, do, in fact, include the results from all three counties.

Under Ohio election laws, the county with the most voters from the Congressional District handles stuff like collecting and verifying nominating petitions and tabulating results.

It's really a 321 vote race.

From the SOS website, here's the county by county breakdown:

Results by County for:
U.S. Representative - District 15

Franklin County - 99.88% (853 of 854) Precincts Reporting

Kilroy, Mary Jo (D) 48.24% 111,510
Stivers, Steve (R) 43.15% 99,737
Noble, Mark (L) 4.51% 10,425
Eckhart, Don (I) 4.11% 9,494
Casper, Travis (I) 0% 0

Madison County - 100.00% (43 of 43) Precincts Reporting

Stivers, Steve (R) 58.17% 9,363
Kilroy, Mary Jo (D) 31.15% 5,014
Eckhart, Don (I) 5.49% 884
Noble, Mark (L) 5.18% 834
Casper, Travis (I) 0% 0

Union County - 100.00% (48 of 48) Precincts Reporting

Stivers, Steve (R) 62.49% 14,222
Kilroy, Mary Jo (D) 28.46% 6,477
Noble, Mark (L) 4.56% 1,037
Eckhart, Don (I) 4.49% 1,023
Casper, Travis (I) 0% 0


[ Parent ]
Thanks for the clarification.
I do see the results you listed by county on the Secretary of State's web site now.

The results on CNN are wrong.  CNN (and the AP apparently) took the results from all 3 counties (123,322 to 123,301), then added in the results again for Madison and Union Counties.  So, the results for Madison and Union counties are double-counted on the CNN website.


[ Parent ]
Like last night before I went to bed...
I'm still rather down (though I'm extremly glad to see Obama won the presidency).

In a way, the GOP actually pulled it off, and energized their base... however slim that base is, the base is still the base.  They managed to use that to hold off a lot of take over attempts we had on various seats of congress...

Sigh, I guess I can never get over the fact that AK maintained the status quo, and CA banned gay marriage.


Franken lost by only 571 votes!!!!


Mehh...
A good night's sleep makes me feel better.  I was disappointed last night too....

I figure the outstanding races go 50/50 to each party, so we should reach 20.  

I'm one of those people who is scared of total Democrat control, so the rationale seems reasonable.  Unfortunately, the Repubs that seem to have gotten saved are ones I could do without.

And the Senate seats, I'm surprised but still think the Oregon and Alaska races go Dem and Geoorgia is a runoff (prob Repub though) and MN who knows, maybe it will end in a tie.


Sure, I'm a little dissapointed
But a gain of 48 seats in a two cycle period while not losing a single incumbent or incumbent's seat from what we were clinging onto in the 108th congress really isn't anything to kill ourselves over.  It looks like that net gain should end up over 50 at least.
I don't think this ended up being a wave as much as it was us picking up the leftover bits of the last wave with a little help from the O-man.
While our performance certainly wasn't fantastic, the fact of the matter is (and say it with me now) WE DID GOOD!!

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


I meant to say
*109th Congress

It's been a long, election-tastic day.  Numbers are failing me.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


[ Parent ]
From a scale of 1 to 10, 10 being perfect...
How would you rate our performace then?

I'm personally gearing toward a 6.5~7...


[ Parent ]
I'd agree
6-7 sounds about right.  I was expecting a little more, sure, but D-trip certainly did it's job with incumbent protection amd it looks like we only lost a handful of seats we should have "won" while still managing to pick up a couple that didn't look to be tilting our way.
Not another '06-style tsunami, but we still did alright by historical standards.  Even in the much heralded 1934 election, Dems only picked up 9 seats (though if we had won 97 seats in 2006 like Dems did in 1932, I imagine we'd pretty much be out of places to look for pickups).  Hell, Reps lost 27 seats in 1982 after the wave of St. Ronnie.  Besides, there have been plenty of landslide presidential elections where the house basically came out awash.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


[ Parent ]
I'm disappointed
We lost a lot of races we should have won, several of the New jersey races, Minnesota I'm just off the deep end on WTF IS GOING ON THERE! We should have got Terry in NE-02. Missouri was a massacre, very disappointed there. Seals should have won, ditto on charlie brown. Bob Lord and Jilly Derby I'm also disappointed in.

We did ok, its not a death knell to the Republican Party and it could have been. Obama's coattails don't seem to extend out of Ohio, NC, and VA.

The Senate sucks just fucking sucks explain to me why we lost MN,OR and AK. ALL OF THOSE SHOULD BE DEM. Especially MN and AK (FFS he's a convicted felon).

Minnesota pissed me off beyond no end.


[ Parent ]
We haven't lost MN and OR
There are still tons of votes to be counted in OR, and from the looks of things the largest number of those are from Portland, and those should go heavily to Merkely -- the mail-in vote system actually means the count is slower than it often in when they're counting voting machines in others states at polling places on election night. We should take the  OR Senate seat when the final votes are all counted in a few days.

The MN seat is simply TCTC... 300ish seats with unknown numbers of provisionals etc left to count -- this could still flip as those leak in or during a recount -- gonna be a nailbiter for a few weeks

Alaska amazes me... clearly having Palin on the ticket saved the corrupt Republicans in the Senate and House races there....maybe when they kick Stevens out of the Senate Sarah will appoint herself and go to Washington to further her huge ambition.

Hard to know for sure, but it is looking like Adler is going to win NJ-3 after all - but I agree that NJ 7 and Stender was a huge disappointment.



[ Parent ]
Well
Esch losing was pretty heartbreaking, I'll give you that.  Also, I have no clue what happened with Seals.  Surely Obama kicked ass and took names in IL-10, so THAT many people decided to split their ticket?
CNN just called NJ-03 for Adler.  I'm not sure what happened with Stender, but now that I think about, I can't think of any poll that she actually led in.  If someone can find one, lemme know, but in hindsight I think the motif was always, "she's right there just behind Lance, she just has to _ and she's got it" and that _ didn't happen.
Alaska boggles my mind, but keep in mind that this is the third election in a row where they've let us down.  I think it just might be time our 50 state strategy becomes a 49 state one (preferably by means of Todd Palin succeeding)
Minnesota is the only one that really pisses me off.  The Independence Party causes no shortage of follies.  How many elections have we lost thanks to those self-important assholes now?
Oh, and there's been some glitch with they way they've been reporting OR-SEN.  Assume some in the SOS office gets off their smoke break long enough to notice and fix the problem, Merkley should pull this off.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


[ Parent ]
Why did this post
Turn into an adventure with formatting?  I swear I didn't do any of that except for the link.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


[ Parent ]
Well good news in Jersey and Oregon
At least that's something........ Stender I thought was gonna pull it out.(Guess no Obama Coattails in Jersey.)

Minnesota needs to have its head examined, I mean Al Franken wasn't the best person for the Job but Norm Coleman is an asshole. And the house races there are just infuriating.

Jill Derby and Bob Lord I thought could upset, but it just didn't pan out.

Missouri I am surprised at I thought Baker would have won, and I thought the polling in the Barnes race was off and we had a shot.(guess I was wrong)

Alaska and Minnesota are the two great disappointments we should have ran the table in all the races in both these areas. (That Palin pick doesn't look so dumb, if the Right's theory was to turn out the base to save republican House incumbents.)

I hope WA-08 comes through and Charlie Brown comes back.


[ Parent ]
I'd say they actually did it
By turning out the base where it counts the most of save the incumbents.

Which is why it sank my heart even more...  to see that they still had some gas in the tank to pull it off...

Oh well, we can always brag about New England being almost completely Blue now!  This does cheer me up slightly.

Still grumbling about Josh Segall not visiting Auburn-Opelika enough...


[ Parent ]
Stender
had the double disadvantage of running in a more Republican district than Adler, and having a much better opponent than Adler. Leonard Lance is a pretty well-respected State Senator, and got nearly all the newspaper endorsements in the district.

[ Parent ]
Yay!
99% of precincts in and Adler's up 52-48!

Male, 23, DC-At Large

346 votes
That's how many votes now separate Franken and Coleman. Votes are still coming from somewhere, perhaps absentees or provisionals.

How can it be called?
I don't understand how they can call it yet... Can someone explain to me.

20 M MD-01

[ Parent ]
AP "uncalled" it
About 10 am EST this morning

I think they thought 100% meant every ballot, but clearly there are still possibilities for provisional ballots, mistakes etc that could change this

We all knew this was going to be close, but WOW... 300ish in a statewide race in a state the size of MN? We'll probably not know for sure until the final recount in a few weeks


[ Parent ]
and back to over 700
http://www.startribune.com/

Guess we'll just have to wait for this to settle over the next days and weeks.


[ Parent ]
CA-4 is still too early to call
It is far too early to write off Charlie Brown yet ... while they are reporting 100% of the precincts in, that is deceptive. In California, mail in ballots continue to get counted and added to the totals for several days.... there are reported to be at least 2,000,000 outstanding mail ballots statewide (no idea what that means for the number of such ballots in this district), as well as provisional ballots ... with such a slim margin, it is very conceivable that this race could still flip.

This is the reason most news sources have held off calling the Prop 8 referendum -- there is a history in California of this large number of late counted ballots affecting races (remember the primary, when Obama picked up almost 2% over the original count when all these were counted in the day/weeks after the election).


Whoa, good to hear
Maybe that's why they're not calling CA-50 either?  Leibham's only down about 9K.  I'm not holding breath, but...

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


[ Parent ]
same with Leibman
but it is now about 11,400 down and they're finally showing 100% of precincts in there (it was only in the 70% until a little while ago).

This one seems like a bigger stretch, but always good to hope


[ Parent ]
Darcy
CNN only has about half of the precincts being counted so far. What's the delay?

20 M MD-01

Mail-in ballots in WA are always slow in counting
Remember the Cantwell race took weeks to count, and Gregoire/ Rossi 4 years ago went on forever for the same reason

At least a week until we have a final count there


[ Parent ]
Indiana State House
It would appear at this moment that we have lost the Indiana state house in an all important year and re-districting coming up in 2010. From what I have found the make-up of the house currently is 50D-49R with one too close too call, with an R leading it. There are two other Republican won districts that that will be headed off to a recount but unlikely to switch so it appears we will have a 50-50 split in the state house.

VA-05
What's going on with Virgil Goode's race? The AP numbers that everyone was using showed Perriello ahead, but now the VA elections site has different numbers (Perriello lost votes)?

I hope this makes everyone stop fawning over Anzalone list
They were good for the two special elections, but they were nowhere close on a lot of races they polled.  LA-06, are you kidding me?

no Obama coattails

I have gone over my personal list of House seats and expected district generic partisan splits, and the pattern is painfully clear.  Only a very few Democratic House candidates successfully exceeded the generic split in their district- Markey, Teague, Kratovil, Dahlkemper (maybe), Grayson, Massa, McMahon.

Candidates like Burner and Kilroy seem to be running under generic partisan split of their districts.  Also Madia probably, perhaps Seals, maybe Stender, and definitely Roggio and Bennett.

Short analysis from looking at House, Senate, and state office results : no Obama coattails downticket.  Everyone downticket pretty much won or lost on their own.  We should talk to the people who promised us an Obama landslide and big transformation.


I think the Palin Pick Change the downticket dynamics
I was a wave supporter and am extremely disappointed.

What I think happened was this: The right saw that they were going to go down hard this election. In a shrewd move they forced McCain into a suicidal move that made Palin his VP in order to court the base in the conservative areas of the country and polarize voters. This caused us to win democratic areas by bigger margins but at the same time caused them to hold these conservative districts required to win 30-40 seats.  In essence it was a get out the vote effort.

I think they accomplished what they set out to do, in this election; survive.  


[ Parent ]
Hmm. You might be right. Though I don't get why they'd support Stevens in Alaska.
I was wondering, is Stevens's stellar performance in Alaska due to:

* star power on his part
* Palin coattails in getting straight-ticket R votes
* (reverse-?)Bradley effect favoring Begich in polling but Stevens in the booth?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]
Reffering to this and my list:
http://www.ncsl.org/statevote/...
We picked up:
DE-House
NV-Senate
OH-House
WI-Assembly

We Tied them (gaining) in AK-House

We Lost:
MT-Senate
OK-Senate (we only had a tie here beforehand...)


Dems have...
...their hat in the ring (i.e. at least one chamber) in all of the states that will gain or lose seats in 2010 except Fla, Tx and Utah.

Not too concerned about Utah, the seat will be Repub no matter how they draw it.  Dems will have 1 seat in Utah even after reapportionment.

Fla and Tx are headaches.  Tx house is close so maybe by 2010 we can get a few more seats, just to keep it honest


[ Parent ]
New York Senate
too...first time since 1965.

Joe Addabbo defeated Serphin Maltese in my district in Queens to clinch the majority :-)  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens


[ Parent ]
Woops. Yes, I missed that.


[ Parent ]
various

There are some seemingly helpful substantial downticket gains in Blue States- MI state House, OR state House, DE state Senate, Maine state Senate.  It looks like minor changes or de facto stalling in Purple States: little or no net changes all over the Midwest and Southwest, slight setbacks in Arizona, gains in Nevada.

Democrats have also lost the Tennessee state House and the formal (but not real, the Independent almost always voted with the Rs) nominal tie in the state Senate.  Local Democrats were not in thrall of what the state legislature Democrats were doing and not doing, so the upset is limited.  The Democratic seat losses in Montana are larger in number than I thought, too.

On the whole the picture looks to me like Blue States getting more blue, the slowly diminishing number Red States getting more red.  Though in the Deep South Republicans are not necessarily more socially conservative than the Old Democrats they replace and sometimes more liberal; the difference is more tribal, economic, and ethics(sic) thereof.


[ Parent ]
it was a wave alright
but it went in the wrong direction.  it seemed we would have a minimum of 7 senate pickups with the potential of an additional 3 if we rode the wave.

instead we picked up 5 and it's very possible that that will be the most we get.

in MN we are once again heartbroken.  the brutal vise of an active 3rd party that draws disproportionately from democrats and revulsion at negative ads keeps squeezing us and costing us victories that should be ours.  we DID net 2 leg seats last night and obama won big, but we were all a little sad last night.


The election is over so I'm done being a team player
We lost the MN-Sen because Al Franken was an absolutely horrible candidate who had no business being our nominee.  I honestly think ABSOLUTELY ANYONE ELSE would have gotten those extra 700 votes.

[ Parent ]
Also, I think it's important to look at
Which states did good, mediocre, and bad.  The states we did outstanding in, cleaning the slate with races we should have won...

The "Gave us all they Could" States
New York - NY-St.Senate, NY-13, NY-25, NY-29.
Virginia - VA-Sen, VA-02, VA-05, VA-11.
Michigan - MI-07, MI-09
New Mexico - NM-Sen, NM-01, NM-02
Colorado - CO-Sen, CO-04
North Carolina - NC-Sen, NC-08
Maryland - MD-01
Alabama - AL-02
Wisconsin - WI-St.Assembly
Nevada - NV-St.Senate, NV-03
Deleware - DE-St.House
Connecticut - CT-04

Any more that fit this category?  I think Obama-Biden performed better than Democrats usually do in these states.  


True Blues!!!
I like the whole totally blue states:

Mass - Dem gov, all reps, both senators
NH - Dem gov, all reps, 1 senator (tick tock Judd)
NM - Dem gov, all reps, both senators

Did I forget any?  Hawaii maybe...

Maybe Delaware is next (appoint Castle as Ambassador somewhere???), or maybe Maryland.  Maybe ND, do we have any strong D's for governor who aren't reps/senators?  


[ Parent ]
Connecticut should be our next target...
With Shays gone, time to take out Lieberman...

It would be tough to take out Jodi Rell though.


[ Parent ]
Don't forget Lieberman...
he needs to go b4 Rell...

[ Parent ]
unfortunately not Hawai'i
The current gov is Linda Lingle, a Republican... but we'll probably take everything back in 2 years there

[ Parent ]
GA Senate
The SOS page now has Chambliss under 50% with lots of
early/absentee/provisional ballots left to count
http://www.sos.georgia.gov/ele...

Its gonna be a runoff...
thank god.  I was shocked last night when Chambliss was called so dang early.

Looks like not-sexy Saxby needs the next 10,000 votes to all come in from him just to get to 50.00, and since they are in Atlanta, I doubt it.

Still think the runoff favors Chambliss, since Obama isn't going to go near GA during the runoff.  But previous posters are giht, Carter, Clintons, John Lewis, etc are all going to be very visible


[ Parent ]
CNN calls ID-01 for Minnick!!! 51-49 with 99% in!
GOOD riddance to you Bill Sali!

23 and counting
And still to add Perriello, Kratovil and hopefully Darcy. And Carmouche in the runoff. Down four so net 23 isn't what we were expecting but is still damn good considering 2006.

[ Parent ]
VA05 is now showing Perriello with a 119 vote lead with 99% in...
I think a recount maybe on the horizon for this one...

[ Parent ]
100% in according to CNN
Presumably that doesn't include absentees though correct?

[ Parent ]
you maybe right...they're showing the same thing for CA-04...
I guess we'll have to sit and wait it out.

[ Parent ]
VA Recounts don't change all that much though.
In the Deeds/McDonnell race in 2005 for AttyGen, only 37 votes changed out of 1.9 million votes cast.

Maybe this is wishful thinking, but I'm thinking Perriello might just hold on.


[ Parent ]
His lead just jumped
To over 500 votes.

[ Parent ]
And now down over 400.
Damn.

[ Parent ]
Now Up 35
Looks like they're still counting something.

[ Parent ]
50,000+ votes still to count in Alaska
The Anchorage Daily News website is reporting that there are still a lot of ballots left to count in the Stevens/Begich race

With Stevens up by about 4,000 they tell us that:

Still be be counted are roughly 40,000 absentee ballots, with more expected to arrive in the mail, as well as 9,000 uncounted early votes and thousands of questioned ballots. The state Elections Division has up to 15 days after the election to tally all the remaining ballots before finalizing the count.

That's a lot of votes out there is a close race... Stevens might still win, but no one should call this yet.


Questions
1. Which candidate are we toasting in the OR senate election this morning?

2. Can Tyler Oakley spell irrational exuberance?

The loss in CA-04 really hurt.


We'll win Oregon
Just about all Republican areas are in and huge chunks of votes left in the Dem areas. Merkley has already closed the gap to 12,000 and should take the lead soon.

ouch - IL-10
what happened there?

PA-06
Anyone take a gander at PA-06?  Gerlach won, as expected, but only by four points.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

Sure did
Did the DCCC invest any money in PA-06? I thought this one was a lot  like CT-04 after 2006. The wave didn't get them despite decent candidates and  a crap load of money. Maybe the problem in 2006 was the recycled candidate issue. CT-04 only broke late  and most predictions had it as lean Rep until the last couple of months. A fresh look at PA-06  and a couple of other PA seats may be in order in 2010.

[ Parent ]
I don't think they did
Everyone assumed PA-06 fell through the cracks.  No major recruits stepped up.  In fact, I saw the Democrat referred to as "some guy."  And I don't remember much spending from the DCCC.  And Gerlach only won by four points.

I think PA-06 seriously needs to be on our targest list next time.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


[ Parent ]
some coattails... maybe
It seems that the states targeted heavily by Obama did show some signs of downballot benefit. Virginia is the obvious example, Connolly was going to win, but I never thought Nye could pull it off and Perriello had no business even being close. The same seems to go for NC. Hagan won by a much larger margin than I expected as did Kissell.

Also NM (Heinrich and Teague), FL (Kosmas and Grayson), OH (Driehaus and Boccieri), MI (Schauer and Peters), and PA (Dahlkemper and Kanjo) showed signs of Obama helping out in congressional races.

Even Dem base states like CT (Himes), MD (Kratovil) and NY (McMahon, Maffei, Massa) played into the trend - though Arcuri needs to not almost give me an election day heart attack. The two glaring exceptions were IL where I can't for the life of me figure out why Seals lost by a worse margin than 2006, and MN.

I think in some instances we may have been thinking a bit too ambitiously. - Shadegg, Buchanan, Souder, Scalise, Graves, Heller, Culberson, McCaul, and Captito won handily so really we had few genuine disappointments - (Berkowitz, Seals, Boyda, Cazayoux, Madia, Tinklenberg, Stender, and Kilroy)

Palin also had obvious limited coattails in Alaska - Berkowitz lost by a margin that I thought he'd win by and Stevens appeared to have squeaked one out felony and all.

Bottom line, it could have been better, but I think overall we did pretty well.


I agree with you on everything except NY
I think he would have won the three New York Seats with or without Obama, if we won ny-26 and didn't have a close call in NY-24. I would agree with the coattails in New York, but it didn't. That being said I think that your summary of his coattails is extremely accurate.

I think we saw the great results of 2006 with no incumbent loses and wins in areas we didn't think; (Iowa 2nd, Kansas 2nd, NH 1st)coupled with the special elections wins in blood red districts; and thought we couple replicate these improbable victories on a wide scale with an Obama tailwind.

What we failed to understand; I think is the Palin effect as well as the increased voter turnout of Republicans in these conservative areas due to the presidential election. Many people only vote during Presidential years. I think these two facts did us in on some of our reach elections.

Other then the stated none coattails in Minnesota and Illinois; I was surprised at the none coattails of Obama in Indiana, Missouri, Iowa, California, Oregon, New Jersey, and Southern Florida. It seems like in some of these races the Presidential Race hurt the candidates down ticket.  


[ Parent ]
Rematch in Alaska
Alaska is not done yet.  Thousands of ballots still out there to count apparently.  Even if they do not make up the current deficit, McConnell and Reid are both saying they will have expulsion vote.  Will the Senate really let a convicted felon stay while his appeals run?  I'm doubtful.  If expelled, who will be the likely candidates?  I'd guess a battle of losers--Begich v. Parnell, with Parnell favored, but who knows.

[ Parent ]
The fact that you're saying McConnell will still vote
disappointed me early in the evening already.

DAMN they played good defense.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]
What this tells me...
Is Recruitment, Recruitment, Recruitment, Recruitment.  Our senate pickups came from where we sported the best of the best.  Our house pickups get a little more complicated than that, but we have to realize our opportunities and build on them looking toward 2010.  

Hawaii legislature Repubs got pounded
Obama's coattails saved a bunch of Democrats that shouldn't have been re-elected, and even helped us further extend our majorities, from 21-4 to 23-2 in the state Senate, and from 44-7 to 45-6 in the state House.  Republicans were expecting to at least pick up seats in the state House.

All in all, the impression I get is that GOP turnout was just too high in a presidential election to let us take the kinds of districts we did in 2006.  A lot of weak targets have been revealed (Lundgren and Bilbray in California, Gerlach, Rogers in Alabama, Mario Diaz-Balart, McCotter, Terry, and Brown and Wilson in South Carolina), and all in all most of the pickups we've netted tonight should be safe, it doesn't look like we'll be facing a reverse landslide unless things go horribly wrong with Obama's presidency.


OR Senate
Merkley now within 6,187 with over half of the precincts in his two best counties, Multnomah and Lane, still to be counted.  This one is looking good.

What with CA-44?
Was anyone aware that one might be close?  I sure wasn't.

CA-46
69% of precincts reporting

Calvert(Incumbent) 64,599 53%
Hedrick 56,616 47%



Kratovil
Its looking good for Kratovil. As far as absentee ballots go, 60% of them are from the Eastern Shore. Kratovil won every single county on the Eastern Shore often by more than ten points.

20 M MD-01

Lessons from last night
1. Do NOT underestimate the enemy.
2. Do NOT underestimate the enemy, especially not the Republican Party.
3. Do NOT underestimate the enemy, especially not the Republican Party, even if it's just a bunch of crazed right-wing nuts.
4. Do NOT underestimate the enemy, especially not the Republican Party, even if it's just a bunch of crazed right-wing nuts, and even if it is backed into a corner.
5. Do NOT underestimate the enemy, especially not the Republican Party, even if it's just a bunch of crazed right-wing nuts, and even if it is backed into a corner and merely wielding a blade with seven felony counts layers of rust on it.

6. Even the most undeserving candidates win, and even the most deserving candidates lose.

7. (a good lesson) The Fifty State Strategy is a key to our electoral success.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


More lessons
8. Races that LOOK promising on paper have NO requirement to be promising in reality.  (OH-15 was supposed to be an easy win, right?  Marginal district, longtime incumbent nearly lost, repeat candidate on our side?)

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
more
9. Just because you think there should be a wave doesn't mean there will be one.  In fact, there might be one going in the other direction.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Let me add #10
When the DCCC tries to help you out, don't chase them away with a shotgun (see: Boyda, Nancy).

[ Parent ]
Dang.
I really liked Boyda in there.  Thought she could hold it on her own steam, since she lots in 2004 using the D-trip's and won in 2006 using her own.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Ditto
I really respected Boyda and donated a little her.  Of our four losses in the House, that was the most disappointing.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Good points
BUT I really don't thunk many of these races slipped away due to complacency.  It seems as though they are more to do with divided government.  More people than expected split their tickets in the close races.  It seems as though people were just a little hesistant to give President-Elect Obama TOO much power.

[ Parent ]
I'm not so much saying they slipped away due to complacency
as I am trying to rectify my mood of disappointment right now.  I was expecting a wave; I got a gentle lapping held back by pebbles.

I suspect top-level party leaders and strategists working in the fray knew quite a lot more than we all together do.  And I suspect the Republicans were using the divided government argument against us (one that's (GASP) actually legitimate, though probably combined with nuttery crap like "lib'rul soash'list uhgenda") and that Democratic strategists were aware of this.  My only question is whether we could have done more to stop them from fighting back.

The ideal situation, as I've said before, is a competitive two-party system that keeps both parties in check and reasonable.  However, if the Republican party should firmly choose to be the party of crazy, bigoted, and xenophobic special interests, then I have no qualms about pummeling them into the ground, and I'd rather see them die off and the Democratic party take over and then itself split into factions.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]
Florida
Basically Central Florida came through big at both the Presidential level and Congressional level (FL 8th and 24th were pickups).  

South Florida was a success at the Presidential level and huge disappointment at the congressional level with no congressional pickups and the loss of FL-16.

Some other shocking Presidential results were Duval County (Jacksonville) which was split nearly 50/50 Obama/McCain.  That is one of the more conservative big cities in the nation, so that was unexpected good news.

The Florida House and Senate were disasters.  No change in the state Senate and 1 seat gain in the state House.  We should have done MUCH better.


See my rule #9.


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
VA-05
Perriello currently up by 30 votes.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

I am hardly happy about these results
We should have picked up another 10-15 seats in the House.  I guess the positive way of looking at it would that the less we take away from Republicans this year, the less Republicans can take back in 2010.    

I am REALLY pissed
about losing AK-AL, MN-03, MN-06, FL-25, IL-10, KS-02, LA-06, NJ-07, NE-02, and OH-15.  Those were seats that I thought we had.  I just hope to god VA-05, WA-08, and CA-04 come through.  

[ Parent ]
Races I'm really pissed at losing
TX-22, WY-AL, KS-02, MN-06, OH-15, LA-06, KY-Sen, MS-Sen*, ID-Sen, OK-Sen, TX-Sen.

I'm also disappointed at AL-03, SC-01, NC-05, NC-10, NE-Sen, FL-18, FL-21, FL-25, and NY-26.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]
Oh, add AK-AL to the really pissed list.


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
TX-22, and WY-AL
as well as SC-01, NC-05, and NC-10 were all districts we never really had a chance in and would be nearly impossible to hold if we somehow won them.  

[ Parent ]
I have three words for you.
Fifty State Strategy.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Possible 2010 targets
Okay, here are some possible targets, in my opinion:

PA-06 (Gerlach): Gerlach only won by 4% against a candidate no one thought would even put up much of a fight.

VA-01 (Wittman), VA-05 (Goode, if Periello doesn't pull it off), VA-07 (Cantor): Obama did very well here, getting into the high 40s.

VA-04 (Forbes), VA-10 (Wolf): Obama won these districts

That's not all, but just a couple I've noticed.



Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


a whole host of California districts
I think 44, 46, and 50 come to mind, and 04 if the carpetbagger wins.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Significantly further down ballot...
Does anyone have any idea what is up in the Texas and Montana State Houses of Representatives?  

The National Conference of State Legislatures reports that Montana was 49D/50R/1U pre-election, and is 50D/50R now.  

It reports that Texas was 71D/77R and is now 74D/76R.  

However the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee indicates that both results are in question and Texas may be tied.



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