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2006 Senate: When They Filed

by: DavidNYC

Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 10:21 PM EDT

(Bumped - promoted by DavidNYC)

Campaigns, as we all know, start earlier and earlier every cycle. But I thought it might be helpful to take a look back at when some of last year's Senate challengers formally filed statements of candidacy with the FEC, as something of a benchmark for what we might expect this year:

Candidate Party State Date
Bob Corker R TN 10/14/2004
Matt Brown D RI 2/16/2005
Mark Kennedy R MN 2/22/2005
Amy Klobuchar D MN 3/1/2005
Bob Casey D PA 3/11/2005
Patty Wetterling D MN 3/14/2005
Tom Kean, Jr. R NJ 3/15/2005
Kweisi Mfume D MD 3/17/2005
Sheldon Whitehouse D RI 3/31/2005
John Morrison D MT 4/16/2005
Bernie Sanders I VT 5/2/2005
Ben Cardin D MD 5/6/2005
Harold Ford D TN 5/25/2005
Jon Tester D MT 5/27/2005
Katherine Harris R FL 6/20/2005
Michael Steele R MD 6/24/2005
Richard Tarrant R VT 7/6/2005
Mike McGavick R WA 7/26/2005
Pete Ricketts R NE 8/15/2005
Jim Pederson D AZ 9/2/2005
Claire McCaskill D MO 9/13/2005
Paul Hackett D OH 10/11/2005
Mike Bouchard R MI 10/15/2005
Sherrod Brown D OH 10/18/2005
Jack Carter D NV 11/1/2005
Harris Miller D VA 1/9/2006
Jim Webb D VA 2/9/2006
Ned Lamont D CT 2/10/2006

So this table tells me two things. First, that running for Senate is an incredibly hard two-year slog for most people. Alright, we already knew that, but seeing all these dates puts this fact into stark relief. This business ain't for the weak of heart - or body.

Second, this also tells me that if this cycle is anything like the last one, we may have to wait almost a year to see the field get hammered down. However, given general trends, plus the presidential race (with its super-early primaries) sucking up so much oxygen, I'd expect to see most serious candidates filings take place well before February 2007. I don't think we'll have too many - if any - Lamonts or Webbs this time. I wouldn't be surprised if just about every contender files by Labor Day of this year.

Bottom line: We've still got plenty of waiting left to do on the Senate recruitment front, but probably not as much as last time. And you can be sure Chuck Schumer isn't wasting even a moment. Neither, of course, are we.

(One small caveat about this list: As I say, it reflects candidate filing dates with the FEC. Actual announcements - ie, the kind with all the hoopla and press coverage - might have taken place at different times than listed in this chart. But in most cases, they should probably be pretty close.)

DavidNYC :: 2006 Senate: When They Filed
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Really interesting.
I've been thinking about this in respect to my own corner of the world - NH-Sen, and how, on the one hand, we've had so much speculation about candidates who have declined (Lynch, Hirshberg, Gottesman), and on the other, candidates who have either filed or exploring (Marchand, Swett, Buckey).  All of this happened very early, with Marchand being the earliest, if  I recall correctly.

Here we are in March of 2007 and the big news for challengers right now is "who will win the Q1 money expectations game?" in a few days.

My sense is that the field is setting already, and that those who get on board even just a month or three later (unless they are self-funding or extraordinarily name-rec'd) are not going to be able to compete.

Combine that with the insane acceleration of the presidential primaries, and you pretty much have permanent campaign mode going on here in NH.

Wonder if Sununu's fired now.

I can't imagine there is anyone
Waiting around out there who has high name rec/access to lots of money, except perhaps Sheehan. However, given how desperate access to media oxygen is in NH in a presidential year, I can't see how waiting would help her.

[ Parent ]
Let's not mix up Sheehan and Shaheen. I don't think Cindy Sheehan running for Senate would be a good idea.

[ Parent ]
Sheehan's from California.
So I don't think we'll have to worry about her running against Sununu.  I do remember some short-lived rumor of her challenging Diane Feinstein in the Democratic primary.  Ugh, glad that never happened.

[ Parent ]
Well, I know Nebraska's going to be a little different...
Everyone (with the exception of Bruning, who filed exploratory papers with the FEC on 3/15) is waiting on Hagel's decision before they jump in. The Democratic candidate can afford to wait a little longer, simply because it's unlikely that we'll see a contested primary. But I imagine the movement will be fast and furious as soon as Hagel makes his final decision.

In one respect
I kind of wish that Shaheen would jump in just because of the money apsect. Sununu will have fundraisers with every GOP candidate and will be extremely well-funded while our candidate won't have that advantage.

I think from our side, a lot depends on recruitment and retirement. Everyone thinks we'll give Gordon Smith a race but we've yet to have anyone step up, then you've got Virginia New Mexico and Mississippi where we could win depending on retirement.

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