Seems possible

His opponent had been raising major cash even before this (although it was through the shady BMW direct, which takes absurdly large portions of the money they raise).  Murtha's always been somewhat mucked up, but I think his dedication to soldiers, own service record, and ability to deliver for the district outweighed that.

But now, he basically called his constituents racist.  Not smart.  McCain's campaign excluding Northern Virginia from the rest of the state won't help him there, and I think Murtha does indeed have a real fight on his hands.

John McCain: Healthcare for kids?  Not for a Bush-McCain America.

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by: bosdcla14 @ Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 15:20:04 PM CDT

I'm I wrong to hope that...

...should Murtha and Kanjorski win on Tuesday, that should retire in 2010?

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

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by: TheUnknown285 @ Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 15:23:27 PM CDT

eh

Murtha I don't know... We'll see... I think ultimately, he'll probably be fine... and thats almost 500K that the NRCC couldn't spend elsewhere.  

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by: Venslor @ Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 15:23:42 PM CDT

I'm inclined to agree

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

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by: TheUnknown285 @ Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 15:26:59 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

it's for the future

They need to prove to their base that they can win something, somewhere.

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by: Adam B. @ Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 16:14:52 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

$500 K

"thats almost 500K that the NRCC couldn't spend elsewhere."

Actually that I think shows how good a chance the GOP thinks they have against Murtha. With their limited warchest, they need to be very, very smart were they spend their money, and they wouldnt be spending here if they didnt think they could win.

Im starting to get excited.      

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.

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by: Kyle98632 @ Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 19:14:49 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

You seem to think the NRCC is rational

After watching the NRCC's decisions over the past two years I don't believe they are thinking and acting rationally.  I have a strong feeling they just don't care anymore and want to go all out in a lame attempt to take out Murtha who they despise, which would give them one victory in an otherwise completely disasterous night.

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 19:51:19 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

irrational?

I dont think the NRCC is irrational. Did they do a poor job raising money and finding good nominees in many races? Yes, though I certainly dont throw all the blame at Tom Cole and Co's feet, two years and the GOP brand just hasnt improved.

Dispite those two facts, I dont think that makes them irrational. They have to be very careful where they spend their money and I doubt they would just give up on many races we could win to focus on a longshot for some sort of revenge.

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.

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by: Kyle98632 @ Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 19:59:03 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

And I wouldn't get too excited if I were a republican

That money could easily be spent in better places than PA-12, a seat they are almost guaranteed to lose in 2010 if they win this year.  But hey, if they want to waste their money on Murtha I hope they waste another million or so there.

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 19:53:19 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

DCCC

One last point. Why would the Democrats spend almost half a million on this race as well if they didnt fear for Murtha's re-election?

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.

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by: Kyle98632 @ Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 21:21:04 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Because they have ungodly amounts of cash?

Good lord, look at their overall receipts and expenditures.  Like many on this site I don't agree with a lot of the DCCC's expenditures.  They are spending far more than is needed to protect many incumbents.  The same I would say is true of PA-12.  Thankfully they can afford such extravagance.

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by: ChadInFL @ Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 00:41:19 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

It's holdable

It needs a certain sort of Republican - pro-union, anti-immigration, anti-free trade and big on culture war issues without going Musgrave, but I think a Republican probably could hold this seat for a while.

I'm not sure if their candidate does tick those boxes, but it's D+5 and shouldn't be hopeless for a non-ideologue.

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by: Englishlefty @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 05:04:27 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Sen. Mike Bouchard (R-MI)

completely agrees with you!  Screw defending drowning incumbents, throwing hundreds of thousands of dollars into challengers running against both potential vulnerable Democratic incumbents and a building Democratic tsunami is an awesome strategy for the Republicans.  Just look at how well it worked for the NRSC in 2006!
Oh, wait...

This is nothing short of a desperate move with the hopes of scoring a victory that will be slightly more symbolic then carrying Ric Keller's crusty ass back to Washington.  I don't think it means that the NRCC thinks they have a solid shot here as much as it means they'd rather pour money into the chance of scoring a symbolic victory (right-wingers are obsessed with him for some reason; I don't think most Dems care much for him either way) that will help keep Republicans from killing themselves on the 5th.

House races have much different dynamics then Senate races, and this strategy could well work (though, probably at the expense of a couple of Republican seats where that money could be enough to hold off a surging Dem), but the NRSC in '06 is the closest parallel I see to this situation.  And if there was message Republicans should have taken to heart from that year, it's that trying to switch to offense in the 11th hour is a disastrous idea.

22, Democrat, AZ-08

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by: Nico @ Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 01:39:39 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I was thinking of the same thing

This decision reminds me of the NRSC's late decision to throw money into the Michigan Senate race after they believed Bouchard was within the margin of error and ended up losing by 16 points.  

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by: BillNolan @ Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 03:26:09 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

An upset? I don't see it happening.

However, if it does, he'll get no sympathy from me.

With the Dems in power and all the lobbyists cuddling up to them, I wouldn't trust Murtha as far as I could throw his 250 pound ass. A scandal waiting to happen. He would probably be indicted by the Feds for something or other by 2012. It could be a positive not having him there.

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by: Tyler Oakley @ Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 15:27:43 PM CDT

Agreed

I appreciate his strong and relatively early stance against the war, but I haven't heard much else about him that I've liked and a fair amount that I've disliked (with the admission that that I'm not in his district and have not followed his positions that closely).

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by: dsimon @ Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 15:34:58 PM CDT

Chet Edwards

When Nancy Pelosi kept pushing Chet Edwards' name for VP I was thinking that she thinks she needs a new Jack Murtha. He's a great guy to put out there on military issue but since Murtha was getting old and had some ethics issues she'd need a fresh face that was respected by the DC pundits. I tend to believe that we'll see much more of Edwards in the future and even sooner should Murtha lose next week.

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by: Sven @ Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 15:58:21 PM CDT

Murtha's district

I live near, but not in, the district. I met their candidate, Russell, briefly. His campaign has employed a lot of merchandising to get his name recognition up. Mugs, sweatshirts. I have seen his name way more than I've seen the name of either the Democrat or the Republican running for the open seat in the 5th, where I live. Not on yard signs, but on campaign paraphernalia.

Russell has some radio ads on that spill over into my market, and they're pretty shrewd. He can be attacked for being a carpetbagger, for instance, so he wisely makes a virtue of it and brings it up in the ads.

'I've served my country in 30 different assignments all over the globe,' he says (I'm paraphrasing, I didn't memorize it) so I could never put down roots, but now my family is making our home in Johnstown, and...'

They were wise to run a vet, this time, instead of a pretty blonde socialite in high heels. It goes part way to neutralize Murtha's long suit.

I expect Murtha to survive the challenge, but the margin may give him a scare.  

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by: Christopher Walker @ Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 16:27:27 PM CDT

This is personal for them

In what will be an awful night, this would be the one shining win for the staff at RNC/NRCC headquarters.  I just can't believe the people in this district would toss out the chair of defense approps.

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by: Andy Dufresne @ Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 18:16:08 PM CDT

Hey, they already have FL-16

which, frankly, we don't want at all (with Mahoney, that ****).

They don't deserve anything else.  Not NH-01, not PA-10, PA-11, not PA-12, and definitely NOT TX-22.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 19:27:40 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Yes, but Republicans despise Murtha

They still have not gotten over his early criticisms of the war.  Plus, a lot of them still thinks he is a crook from his role in ABSCAM and that famous tape of him almost taking a bribe.

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by: Andy Dufresne @ Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 19:59:07 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I'd rather lose PA-11 than TX-22

Lampson has done nothing to deserve getting booted and it's a district trending our way.  Kanjorski on the other hand is a disgrace and it's a district we'd probably win back in 2010 with a good candidate.

Sadly I think we'll win PA-11 and lose TX-22.

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 20:05:49 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I constantly read here

that Murtha is corrupt and a nepotist etc. have not read it anywhere. Where does all this come from?

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by: fai calif @ Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 20:57:33 PM CDT

please do not tell

me about ABSCAM again. I want some fresh evidence.

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by: fai calif @ Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 20:59:05 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

don't know about the nepotism

but Murtha has been on Defense Appropriations since the 1980s.  A lot of large and small defense contractors have since opened offices and small factories and such in and around Johnstown, I've read, as a direct result of his dealings with them.  You can google up some articles about the way those dealings are what he spends a lot of his time doing and very much likes doing.  It all seems very Reagan '80s- sunny public facade, lots of dismal muck underneath the surface.

Where goodwill and back-scratching becomes coercion and corruption in these things, I don't know.  But defense contracting has never been a clean, efficient, or transparent business done by upstanding citizens to great public benefit.  I don't wish Johnstown ill, but the way I've seen it an economy built on defense contracting differs from an economy built on drug dealing only by a matter of degrees and pretenses.   Eventually it goes away and leaves something of a ghetto behind as well.  There are lots of industries preferable to it- though Johnstown sadly probably doesn't have what it takes to attract those.

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by: Baystater @ Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 22:31:15 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Here's my response to $465,000 if I were head of D-trip. WARNING: Rated R

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by: nrimmer @ Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 00:09:23 AM CDT