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PA-12: Another Close Republican Poll; SSP Moves to "Likely D"

by: Crisitunity

Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 2:13 PM EDT


Dane & Associates for Glen Meakem (10/27-28, 'probable' voters, 10/13-14 in parens):

Jack Murtha (D-inc): 46
William Russell (R): 44
(MoE: ±3.9%)

Here's the takeaway: don't call your constituents 'racists.' Jack Murtha is an institution in this D+5 district (he's the one of only two sitting congress members to have the local airport named after him... the other one, of course, is Ted Stevens). Institution status notwithstanding, though, we're starting to see a pattern here in his post-gaffe environment... as much as these GOP internal polls individually seem ticky-tacky, they're accumulating and it's troubling that Murtha hasn't responded in kind. With the DCCC and NRCC (as well as right-wing Vets for Freedom) jumping in with last minute ad buys, and with Murtha making a pitch for money to Move On members, we at SSP feel there's enough cause for concern here to downgrade this race to "Likely Democratic."

Remember that William Russell is one of the 'defrauder' candidates raising funds through shadowy direct mail firm BMW Direct. Josh Marshall returned to this story yesterday, finding that Russell is actually pocketing a fair bit of money ($1.1 million, out of $2.5 million raised) even after paying for BMW's unusually large fees. That $1.1 million is still much less than the $2 million that Murtha has spent, though.

As for the other bit players in this story, Dane & Associates is a Las Vegas-based automated pollster who, as best as I can tell from a quick Google of the tubes, has never made public any of its polls prior to this race. This poll was made public through grassrootsPA.com, a right-wing state blog that seems to aspire to be a local version of Drudge, based on its firehose-spew of news items and atrocious design sensibilities. The guy who actually paid for it, Glen Meakem, seems to be a Pittsburgh-area internet rich guy with his own Republican political aspirations, at least according to this puff piece from the right-leaning Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.

Crisitunity :: PA-12: Another Close Republican Poll; SSP Moves to "Likely D"
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Rasmussen NC-Sen - Dole down 6
http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

NC-Sen
Hagan (D) 52% (49)
Dole (R) 46% (44)

I'll bet those hateful ads Dole is running is what's hurting her right now.

 


others
he's the one of only two sitting congress members to have the local airport named after him

Frank Lautenberg has a train station in Seacaucus, named during his brief retirement.


This poll doesn't pass my smell test.
1. It claims a sample size of 3657 (!) respondents, but a margin of error of 3%. An actual poll with that many respondents would have a MOE of ~1.6%. Whoever created this memo apparently does not even know basic statistics.
2. Their internal data is very confusing, and it looks like they actually claim to have sampled 20,000 (!!!) people in there. Which is extremely implausible, and also conflicts with their earlier claim.
3. Looking at their internals, only 3.4% of their sample were 18-24, and 4% were 25-34. An astonishing 48% were over 60. Their percentages are also very weird, in that they work out to nice 'even' decimals. Which is very unlikely.

Murtha may be in trouble, but this poll looks like its completely bogus.


Prediction
Murtha wins 59-41%.  Scott in GA-13 wins by an even bigger margin.  These two races involving the defrauders have people freaking out over nothing.  

Nevertheless, never be complacent
You don't want to jinx it.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Wouldn't call it a freakout yet...
I'd just call it "mild concern".

[ Parent ]

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