FL-21, FL-25: On Fire In Florida

by: Crisitunity

Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 7:09 PM EDT

Raul Martinez (D): 44
Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-inc): 45
(MoE: ±5%)

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/20-22, likely voters, 9/23-25 in parentheses):

Joe Garcia (D): 43 (41)
Mario Diaz-Balart (R-inc): 46 (45)
(MoE: ±5%)

Two last stragglers from this weekend's poll blitz to discuss: both the South Florida races involving the Diaz-Balart brothers are almost neck-and-neck as we near the finish line. They're similar districts (the 21st is R+6, the 25th is R+4, both are more than 60% Hispanic, most of which is Cuban-American), obviously similar incumbents (Mario is the slightly more conservative one), and the challengers are similarly close.

Raul Martinez, the former mayor of Hialeah (the population center of the 21st), is trailing Lincoln Diaz-Balart by one point. Among the 17% who've voted already, Martinez leads 55-42. While it's not surprising that the locally well-known Martinez is performing well in this one-time reliable GOP stronghold, it is very surprising that Obama is leading in this district 50-45 (and 55-42 among early voters). (Although given dramatic changes in registration numbers, maybe not that surprising.)

In the 25th, a district which is further out in the suburbs (and includes a whole lot of empty territory in the Everglades), Joe Garcia is back by 3, a slightly closer race than one month ago, and is leading among independents 42-41 (much better than the 4-point deficit among indies last month). Of the 12% who've voted already, Garcia leads 52-46.