My jaw

is quite literally open.

SC-01?!?!?!?!?!?!?!??!?!?!?!?

I didn't even know it was on Red to Blue. I'd love to see what kind of poll numbers the DCCC sees there. Great news.

On other fronts. Why the hell is that kind of money still being put into CA-11, VA-11 and IN-09. Van Hollan needs to learn how to cut races lose when we've won.

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by: Populista @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 23:38:04 PM CDT

As for the safe seats...how about using that money for CA-46, IN-03, TX-07, TX-10, and AL-03?

There are a ton of races we really need to play in; we can't afford to leave more Larry Kissells behind!

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 13:25:17 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

wasted money

so much watsed money...I'm starting to think that Van Hollen needs to be replaced with someone who won't waste so much cash on races we've already won.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

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by: skywrnchsr509 @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 23:43:04 PM CDT

This is S.O.P. for the DCCC

DCCC spent a lot of money on districts like IN-08 and OH-18 last cycle -- and they were blowouts.

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by: James L. @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 23:45:08 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Maybe they literally can't stop spending

because of decisions that need to be made weeks in advance.  I wonder how much leeway is needed before an ad can be yanked.

However, in addition to the first time spending, there are other positive signs here, including:
- More spent on OH-01 than OH-15 & OH-16 combined.
- Ramped up coordinated campaign against the Diaz-Balart brothers.
- Increased spending on NE-02, NY-29, VA-02, VA-05.

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by: DCal @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 00:30:11 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Well

he's also been very good on other things and obviously isn't going to be replaced this late in the cycle considering we're on the brink of winning 20+ seats at the very least.

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by: Populista @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 00:04:34 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I am frustrated as well

$100K would buy a lot of paid media in IA-04, but they can't find money for that, even after Becky Greenwald was added to Red to Blue?

But they are spending lots of cash in districts where we are heavily favored.

Also, I'm sorry, but I refuse to believe we have a better chance in WY-AL (R+19 in a state Obama will lose) than we do in IA-04 (D+0 in a state Obama will win big, where Democratic voter registration gains in 2008 have been enormous).

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by: desmoinesdem @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 07:03:28 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Pull a Boyda: spend it all

Last cycle the DCCC threw in 700 K late in KS-2 and pulled Nancy Boyda even with Jim Ryun in spending.  She won.  Put the $600 K in one district and win it.  There are at least fourteen lovely choices: NJ-5, IA-4, OH-7, OH-3, IL-6, LA-4, MO-9, NV-2, WV-2, VA-5, VA-10, FL-18, CA-3, CA-46 and maybe CA-42 or CA-50.

Just add the IEs on the tracker and the FEC spending to date.  Heck, it's getting too late to blow 10 or 20 k a pop on polls to spread the money like the team of Reynolds and Rove did in 2006.  I did it yesterday.  See diary.  Not too hard.

Btw, what are the Republicans thinking throwing small chunks of change in a multitude of races at $20 K a pop.  CYA, Mr. Cole?

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by: David Kowalski @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 09:05:56 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

With the longshot races

I think it's better to throw money at a lot of them rather than pick one and go all in.

I am just furious to see the DCCC spending so much in places like IL-11 and IN-09 when we have winnable races getting no investment. We will NOT have another opportunity like this to capitalize on such a ground game imbalance.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 10:21:37 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

They just wasted $600,000

in IL-11. Last poll had Halverson winning 50-29...and Obama is at the top of the ticket. Halverson has more money too. I could understand why some money was dropped, but 600,000 is too much.

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by: sulthernao @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 23:43:28 PM CDT

Right.

   The DCCC finds that their candidate is up 21 points in their own polls and then spends $600K on her behalf?  I can't believe I'm saying this, but I want Rahm back.  OTOH, at least they've stopped spending in AZ-01.  I don't understand why we are going full throttle in some very red districts, when some bluer districts with strong challengers could use the money.  I take solace that they are now fully invested in Perriello.

John McCain lets lobbyists shape his economic policy

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by: cilerder86 @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 23:44:08 PM CDT

Stopped spending in AZ-01?

I guess you didn't read yesterday's roundup.

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by: James L. @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 23:46:18 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

spread that 600K around

among a bunch of Democratic challengers who haven't received anything from the DCCC and we would pick up a couple of seats.

Debbie Cook only needs $75K to get her direct mail out.

Ridiculous.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 07:04:37 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Two new OR ads

OR-5 ad (defensive ad to all the negative ads Erickson is running, since he can self-finance the DCCC chose to make a small buy):

And for a bonus, the League of Conservation Voters saying Obama needs Merkley:

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by: skywaker9 @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 23:48:52 PM CDT

Great LCV ad!

That's what I'd like to see in all the Lean Dem districts.

Now why did LCV endorse Shays and a few other Republicans in seriously contested, lean Dem districts.

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by: trowaman @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 00:11:27 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Beacuse

they follow the same failed interest group model that HRC, NEA, NARAL and other Washington interest groups follow where having a member of the opposite party to endorse makes you "bipartisan" and so even if their Dem opponent would be better you endorse the Republican if they are decent.

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by: Populista @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 00:25:39 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

*sigh* this is getting ridiculous.

Boccieri, Halverson, Kosmas, Hill, and Connelly.  It is doubtful any of them still need help.  Come on...

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 23:50:09 PM CDT

& How could I forget Rodriguez...

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 23:53:15 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

DCCC strategy should be questioned

as most of the comments indicate we are spending in races that we have won.

No money however has been put into several Red to Blue races.

NC-10 is one that comes to mind. We have matched McHenry in cash their and have a great candidate.  

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by: politicalal @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 23:53:28 PM CDT

IA-04 is also Red to Blue

yet no DCCC spending yet.

Latham is pounding Becky Greenwald on the bailout in a heavy tv and radio buy.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 07:05:50 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

AL-03 is also Red to Blue

and no spending yet from the DCCC.

I am very disappointed by this strategy. I wouldn't be surprised if we narrowly lose a dozen winnable seats.

In 2010 we will be on defense and won't have the same opportunity to take Republican-held seats.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 07:07:24 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

NC-10 is a good example

of where a little money would go a long way.  

The DCCC needs to be expanding the field far more and stop wasting so much money on expensive races that are already won.

Every House seat counts the same, right?  Why not try and expand the field and challenge some of the more obnoxious GOPers who have never had a real challenge?  

Their strategy is a mystery - again.  Which Democratic candidate will be this year's Larry Kissell '06, coming within 329 votes of a GOP incumbent with NO help from the DCCC? $50 or $100 thousand could have pushed Larry over the top 2 years ago. Who is this year's Larry?

 

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by: bear83 @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 08:01:41 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

a whole bunch of people

as I wrote in my latest diary for this site:

http://www.swingstateproject.c...

But what's even more annoying is that 2010 is likely to be a much less friendly environment for Democratic candidates, so we won't easily be able to right the wrongs done to this year's Kissells.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 10:25:26 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

There's a lot of rotton GOP reps

who may not be vulnerable again for a decade or more.  This may be our only chance to take out a lot of these losers.

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by: bear83 @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 13:04:50 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Did McNerney really need that much more help?

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by: andgarden @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 00:01:27 AM CDT

I'm guessing a couple of these they are spending to embarass.

No better way to scare off challengers than by embarassment

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 00:14:08 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Good Point

I hadn't thought of that. If they're worried about 2010, it does make some sense to make sure that, say, Dean Andal gets beaten badly enough that he won't run again.

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by: Angel Eyes @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 08:13:58 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Just to clear it up

the SSP IE Tracker says the DCCC has spent a little more then 300k in VA-05 with the last drops being on Oct 21. Seeing as today I assume referenced the 22nd is that extra 250k not been added to the VA-05 total or are dates being messed up.

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by: Populista @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 00:07:47 AM CDT

No, the dates are fine

I include the dates that the expenditures were made, not when they were filed. A lot of these buys were made yesterday, but only reported a few hours ago. Hope that clears any confusion.

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by: James L. @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 00:17:48 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Ah

I see. Thanks for clearing it up.

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by: Populista @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 00:23:21 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

They are still not spending in TX-22

I'm getting worried. Even if he is way behind, it's better spent money to help Lampson than Hill and others who are safe.

Good that they are finally active in WY-AL.  

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by: Ectoras @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 00:16:07 AM CDT

KS-02

I thought the DCCC agreed to stay out of this race. They must have reason to be worried if they are spending money there when boyda doesnt want them in that race.

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by: ThinkBlue @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 00:44:43 AM CDT

Don't be worried

If the DCCC felt like Nancy was in trouble the media buy would have been much larger (i.e. at least 350K, instead of 104K).  Also, the ad would have been hard negative instead of a pro-Boyda positive peice (which by the way is very well done for the DCCC, who rarely goes positive). It looks the DCCC didn't want to set a precedent of staying out of any race, especially when 2010 could be much more difficult for us Dems.  It is important to read between the lines with any ad buy.  If you do that, usually it isn't too hard to see what the DCCC is telegraphing.  

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by: KSDEM @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 08:51:45 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

WV-02

If you're curious what their ad looks like, check out this diary (and discussion).

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by: WVaBlue @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 05:26:46 AM CDT

Nearly half a million on IN-09?

Seriously?  This is exactly why I donate to candidates and not the DCCC.  Hill was up like 17 in the last SUSA poll.  I doubt it's narrowed to single digits.

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 09:01:09 AM CDT

Im worried about NV-03

I have a feeling that this race is going to be like PA-06 and OH-15 in 2005, races we thought we had but then slipped away on election night.  There was a recent article that says Porter is doing a great job raising Titus' negatives to make her unelectable.  If Porter is reelected, he will likely defeat Harry Reid in 2010 and a Republican will probably keep NV-03 since it will likely be a bad year for Dems.  

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by: BillNolan @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 16:02:34 PM CDT