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FL-18: Taddeo Within Striking Distance in New Poll

by: James L.

Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 5:55 PM EDT

Lake Research for Annette Taddeo (10/8-10/21, likely voters, June in parens):

Annette Taddeo (D): 41 (27)
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-inc): 48 (58)
(MoE: ±4.6%)

That's some big movement for Taddeo since June, and the gain is across the board for Democrats -- Obama has pulled ahead of McCain by 47-45 here, after trailing McCain by 10 points in June. These results come after a Carlos McDonald poll from late September showed Ros-Lehtinen ahead by 48-35 -- a wide margin, but also not a particularly strong top line for a longtime incumbent.

Taddeo has made a lot of progress, increasing her name recognition from 14% to 63%. With Democrats experiencing a remarkable voter registration surge in this district (cutting a 23,202 GOP registration advantage in 2006 down to a deficit of only 1,730 voters this year), Ros-Lehtinen could end up receiving a November surprise.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.

UPDATE: Barack Obama weighs in on this race:

Speaking at his "jobs summit" in Palm Beach Community College, Barack Obama dropped Congressional hopeful Annette Taddeo's name.

He told the crowd she is a "future member of Congress -- as long as you guys turn out to vote!"

James L. :: FL-18: Taddeo Within Striking Distance in New Poll
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This poll is for all of you people who had no hope for this race!
Go Taddeo!

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

It still looks a little tough for Taddeo. Still, to go from 20-30% deficits to a single digit gap is nothing short of breathtaking! If Obama wins Florida, then I have little doubt that he will be able to provide enough coattails to pull challengers like Annette Taddeo and Joe Garcia over the finish line! And btw, she's obviously run a great campaign to get this close. :-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
If you can't lead in your own internals, you aren't going to lead any polls.  It's still a long shot.  

[ Parent ]
   It seems you picked the wrong cycle to be a hard-nosed realist.  This is, however, the right cycle to quit sniffing glue.  
  I love SSP and its pop culture references.  It has a young enough readership that I actually understand the references!

24, Male, GA-05

[ Parent ]
That's exactly right
This is a screwed up, messed up, shaken up, twisted up, crazy-ass election - once-in-a-generation, perhaps even rarer. Of course Taddeo still has an uphill climb - but this is not the cycle to start placing bet hard-nosed bets.

[ Parent ]
Looking through all the information
Fundraising disadvantage, the unwillingness of the DCCC to commit resources here.  It's unlikely.  I'm just saying, Obama waving his hand and declaring her the next congresswoman from Florida's 18th, and an internal poll showing the race within single digits doesn't make a race competitive.  

[ Parent ]
Please, please, please...
I so want to see her win! I guess we still have some ground to make up, but it may actually be doable in two weeks.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

Obama numbers
definitely sound right. He should win this district, so I don't buy any poll that said he was down 10. Hopefully Taddeo can pull off the Shea-Porter-style victory.

Bush brothers bounce
I bet Ros-Lehtinen bringing in the Bush brothers to fundraise had a lot to do with the movement in this race.

the obama campaign
has been documented lately as really pushing downballot races hard... we have this shout-out at a rally, and the emails they've been sending out to people urging them to vote for the democrat running for congress in their district

since this is happening in the wake of obama's "don't get cocky" comment, i do wonder if this sudden focus is not just an attempt to get obama as many democrats as possible (my congresswoman, for instance, i don't think even has a republican challenger), but also a clever way of aiding their GOTV operation. if anybody out there is seriously considering staying at home because the media says obama is sure to win, well, they're giving them an extra reason to actually show up at the polls.

It is difficult to get the news from poems, but men die miserably every day for lack of what is found there. --William Carlos Williams

He should start campaigning for House and Senate candidates
That would be a smart move to make sure he has a big Democratic majority to work with.  

[ Parent ]
He probably is already
just not making it obvious that he is that's all.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
This will be close
but I think it's a late breaker we can win.  

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