Sali's favorable rating? A dismal 33-47, compared to Minnick's 45-23. Minnick is taking 21% of self-described conservative voters, and sweeping among moderates (80-16) and liberals (94-5). No wonder the NRCC went up with a $200K ad buy last week to help stall Minnick's momentum.
Gary Trauner (D): 44
Cynthia Lummis (R): 50
David Herbert (L): 4
Two recent polls by Mason-Dixon and Research 2000 have given Trauner a 44-43 lead, with a high share of the undecided vote coming from Republicans. These numbers are not so kind. Also of concern are the favorable ratings of both Trauner and Lummis -- they are virtually identical (41-35 for Lummis and 42-36 for Trauner), and Lummis takes a decent chunk of the moderate vote (33%) and even 10% of self-described liberals. Democrats had hoped to portray Lummis as another Barbara Cubin, the retiring GOP Rep. who has a dismal 23-53 approval rating in this poll. When Trauner and Lummis are sitting at an equal position in terms of likeability, that doesn't bode well.
Bonus findings: McCain beats Obama by 57-37 in Idaho's 1st, and by 58-37 in Wyoming.