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ID-01, WY-AL: Minnick Ahead, Trauner Down in New SUSA Polls

by: James L.

Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 12:23 AM EDT

Roll Call is back with a pair of Mountain West SurveyUSA polls in two deeply conservative districts (10/18-19, likely voters, no trend lines).


Walt Minnick (D): 51
Bill Sali (R-inc): 45
(MoE: ±4%)

These numbers confirm Minnick's own internal polling, which also has Sali trailing by six points.

Sali's favorable rating? A dismal 33-47, compared to Minnick's 45-23. Minnick is taking 21% of self-described conservative voters, and sweeping among moderates (80-16) and liberals (94-5). No wonder the NRCC went up with a $200K ad buy last week to help stall Minnick's momentum.


Gary Trauner (D): 44
Cynthia Lummis (R): 50
David Herbert (L): 4
(MoE: ±4%)

Two recent polls by Mason-Dixon and Research 2000 have given Trauner a 44-43 lead, with a high share of the undecided vote coming from Republicans. These numbers are not so kind. Also of concern are the favorable ratings of both Trauner and Lummis -- they are virtually identical (41-35 for Lummis and 42-36 for Trauner), and Lummis takes a decent chunk of the moderate vote (33%) and even 10% of self-described liberals. Democrats had hoped to portray Lummis as another Barbara Cubin, the retiring GOP Rep. who has a dismal 23-53 approval rating in this poll. When Trauner and Lummis are sitting at an equal position in terms of likeability, that doesn't bode well.

Bonus findings: McCain beats Obama by 57-37 in Idaho's 1st, and by 58-37 in Wyoming.

James L. :: ID-01, WY-AL: Minnick Ahead, Trauner Down in New SUSA Polls
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Glad to see that Sali is in so much trouble
He is after all, "an absolute idiot." heh.

Too bad about Trauner, but the undecideds in other polls are breaking as I would expect them to.

This is what I would expect from Wyoming
when the undecideds get pushed to one side or the other... Unfortunate.  But that's why we still have this as Leans Republican.  

It's at likely

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Bleh. CQ and I agree. lol

[ Parent ]
Makes sense
Most of the undecideds in the R2000 poll were Republicans.  

[ Parent ]
Assuming Trauner has already done all he can re: ground game and etc,
about all we can hope for is that McCain is down by 6 or 8 nationwide on election day.  Depression among the GOP and an enthused Democratic base might create enough of a turnout disparity to get Trauner elected.

This is partly why the ACORN stuff is being floated.  To motivate the GOP base to turn out, even in the face of certain defeat at the presidential level.  Something or other has to be done to get the base to turn out, and ACORN seems to be the bogeyman du siecle.

Because a base that knows it will lose AND never liked McCain anyway is a scary scary prospect for McConnell and Chambliss and about three dozen others.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

I hope...
that that Wyoming poll is wrong, and the Idaho one is right.  M-D and R2K had identical polls so maybe SUSA is an outlier in Wyoming...

In terms of ID-01, no wonder the NRCC just dropped $225 K there.  I bet Tom Cole had a hard time signing over that check!  Honestly, if I was the GOP I would let Sali lose knowing that a half-normal GOP candidate in the district could win back a lost seat in 2010.  

It's a R+19 district
Both ID-01 and WY. Any competent GOP could win this. Obama being down only 20,21 looks good though. That's a 20 point improvement from the 2000+2004 (though Cheney was on the ticket).  

[ Parent ]
Any indications as to which of Minnick or Trauner is more progressive?

I'll take what I can get just to see both those districts go blue on the map. LoL Plus it would be just a really, REALLY big middle finger to Cheney for his old Congressionaly seat to be represented by a Democrat because of the great work he did as VP.

[ Parent ]
What a coincidence!
Because ID-01 is SHAPED like a middle finger!

[ Parent ]
Giving the finger to you Canucks! heh.

[ Parent ]
And WY-AL is shaped (vaguely) like a fist coming at your face?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
They list a bunch of House races, but why the heck don't they include ID-01 and WY-AL?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

A part of me
wants to say, why spend money on these races when we can spend money on seats we can keep.

But the other, bigger, part of me says, hahahahahaha big ole middle finger!

Ya, I think of it this way
Incumbency in and of itself is a huge advantage even in deep red districts like ID-01.  At the very least Minnick having one term under his belt would open the floodgates for big fundraising on his part and would force and GOP to spend a lot to get the seat back in 2010.  

Plus, funny things can happen.  The consensus mainstream thought after 2006 seemed to be that people like Lampson, Carney, Space, Kagen, etc. were fluke winners in 2006 and would probably lose their next election.  Turns out that doesn't appear the case.

[ Parent ]

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