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It's Official: A Wave Has Formed (74 Republican Seats at Risk)

by: bushy08

Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 2:43 AM EDT

Very few could have expected a wave bigger than 2006, yet it appears that Republicans are in danger, even in Republican leaning districts.  Interestingly, a large number of these endangered Republican seats are in competitive presidential states.  The list shows the following:

- Mortgage foreclosures and economic slowdown is exposing candidates in CA, FL, MI, and NV.

- The Northeast and Midwest are gradually pulling away from Republican, even moderate Republicans.

- Open Seats and the weakest Republican incumbents are being thrown to the sharks.  The NRCC is only spending to protect extreme ideologues, including open seats in AL and NJ which feature far right candidates.  Obviously the Republican Party simply hasn't got the message: American's want less partisanship.

Here are 23 Republican seats which are heading into the Democratic column:

AK (AL) - Young
AZ (1st) - Open Seat
CO (4th) - Musgrave
FL (8th) - Keller
FL (21st) - Lincoln Diaz-Balart
FL (24th) - Feeney
ID (1st) - Sali
IL (11th) - Open Seat
MI (7th) - Walberg
MI (9th) - Knollenberg
MN (3rd) - Open Seat
NC (8th) - Hayes
NJ (7th) - Open Seat
NM (1st) - Open Seat
NV (3rd) - Porter
NY (13th) - Open Seat
NY (25th) - Open Seat
NY (29th) - Open Seat
OH (1st) - Chabot
OH (15th) - Open Seat
OH (16th) - Open Seat
PA (3rd) - English
VA (11th) - Open Seat

The NRCC is spending heavily on behalf of Musgrave, English, and Diaz-Balart.  They are also doing mailing in OH 15th.  The Club for Growth is protecting Walberg and the NM Republican Party is coming in strong for NM 1.

Here are the 9 endangered Democratic seats:

AL (5th) - Open Seat
GA (8th) - Marshall
KS (2nd) - Boyda
LA (6th) - Cazayoux
NH (1st) - Shea-Porter
PA (10th) - Carney
PA (11th) - Kanjorski
TX (22nd) - Lampson
WI (8th) - Kagen

The NRCC is spending heavily in AL 5 and against Cazayoux and Kagen.  Boyda's race has had only one outside expenditure from the Credit Union Assoc. on behalf of Jenkins.  Shea-Porter is appearing more safe in large part to massive spending by the DCCC.  Marshall makes the list for the first time due to backlash at home against his vote for the bailout.  Carney is looking more safe, but Kanjorski's problems in the neighboring district create problems for Carney.  Finally, Lampson may indeed pull an upset in Texas.  Olson is now being portrayed as a Yankee, due to him voting in Connecticut only years ago.  Seems that Yankee tactic worked very well in the past when another Nutmeger ran for Congress in Texas and lost: George W. Bush.  Lampson has a chance finally.

Now the obvious.  Mahoney's seat has been abandoned.  Making it one guaranteed Democratic seat lost.

As a result of Obama's surgence and McCain's fumbling and uneasiness on both Wall Street and Main Street, the number of Republicans being exposed has increased, while the number of Democrats previously exposed (ex: Mitchell, McNerney, Childers, and Walz) has decreased.  The reason why the incumbents of 2006 are more protected may be explained under two theories:

1. The NRCC did a poor recruiting job in several districts (Shuler, Space, Courtney, and Hodes)

2. It's difficult to blame a freshman incumbent for problems that originated previous to their arrival.  Many Americans view the problems starting with Bush's arrival.  Republicans, not Democrats, are the individuals being held culpable as a result.

Here are the 51 additional Republican seats at severe risk of being lost or swept away in the ensuing tide:

AL (2nd) - Open Seat
AL (3rd) - Rogers
AZ (3rd) - Shadegg
CA (3rd) - Lungren
CA (4th) - Open Seat
CA (26th) - Dreier
CA (46th) - Rohrbacher
CA (50th) - Bilbray
CT (4th) - Shays
FL (10th) - Young
FL (12th) - Putnam
FL (15th) - Open Seat
FL (18th) - Ros-Lehtninen
FL (25th) - Mario Diaz-Balart
IL (10th) - Kirk
IL (13th) - Biggert
IN (3rd) - Souder
IN (4th) - Buyer
IA (4th) - Latham
IA (5th) - King
KY (2nd) - Open Seat
LA (1st) - Scalise
LA (7th) - Boustany
MD (1st) - Open Seat
MD (6th) - Bartlett
MN (6th) - Bachmann
MO (6th) - Graves
MO (9th) - Open Seat
NE (2nd) - Terry
NV (3rd) - Heller
NC (5th) - Foxx
NC (10th) - McHenry
NJ (3rd) - Open Seat
NJ (5th) - Garrett
NM (2nd) - Open Seat
NY (26th) - Open Seat
OH (2nd) - Schmidt
OH (14th) - LaTourette
PA (6th) - Gerlach
PA (15th) - Dent
PA (18th) - Murphy
SC (1st) - Brown
SC (2nd) - Wilson
TX (7th) - Culberson
TX (10th) - McCaul
VA (2nd) - Drake
VA (5th) - Goode
VA (10th) - Wolf
WA (8th) - Reichert
WV (2nd) - Capito
WY (AL) - Open Seat

The list is diverse and includes races which are moving against Democrats (Bilbray, Ros-Lehtinen, and Capito).  

It also features races in Republican leaning districts where the DCCC is spending heavily (MO 9th and NY 26th).  

The list also includes extreme ideologues (Bachmann, King, Garrett, Foxx, McHenry, and Schmidt).

And the always inclusive moderates from the Northeast and Midwest (Shays, Gerlach, Biggert, Dent, and Kirk).

There are also the races that very few would have considered competitive, due to the Republican leanings of the district.  In each of these races the Democrat has raised massive funds (Goode, Culberson, McCaul, and Shadegg).

Then there are the challenger from 2006 back for seconds (Reichert, Wolf, and Wyoming AL).

And of course the self-funding races (Scalise and Brown).

Finally, there are the races featuring incumbents representing Democratic leaning districts (Latham, Putnam, KY 2nd, Rogers, and Boustany).

And one could never forget the perennial weak incumbents whom always struggle, even in Republican districts (Souder, Terry, and Drake).

Finally, we have incumbents whom have been in Washington for decades and if this is change year, then they could certainly be gone (Dreier, Young, and Bartlett).

bushy08 :: It's Official: A Wave Has Formed (74 Republican Seats at Risk)
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Latham has gone negative in IA-04
No public polls on this race, surprisingly, and no leaked internal polls, but Latham released a negative tv ad on Becky Greenwald this week (about the bailout).

His internal polling must indicate that he is not secure.

In a major landslide for Obama in Iowa, I agree with you that IA-04 and IA-05 are both possible pickups.

The early voting is crazy
Check out the last Iowa Pres. poll from SUSA.  This piece of information caught my attention:

Among those who have already voted in Iowa
14% have already voted, Breakdown is:
Obama - 65%
McCain - 31%

Numbers like that have to help down ballot.

[ Parent ]
will be the only Dem. loss and a poll shows Bilbray (CA-50) up by only 4 today

FL-16 is gone as well n/t

[ Parent ]
Not just a loss
FL-16 might be among the biggest losing margins for an incumbent in recent history.

[ Parent ]
Florida Polling
Feeney's numbers took a Mahoney nose dive after he released his "Rookie Mistake" ad.  The NRCC has written him off, yet the Club for Growth continues to support the corrupt Feeney.

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