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NE-02: New Poll Shows Esch in a Dead Heat, Obama Close

by: James L.

Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 5:27 PM EDT


Anzalone Liszt (10/13-15, likely voters, July in parens):

Jim Esch (D): 46 (40)
Lee Terry (R-inc): 47 (50)
Undecided: 7 (9)
(MoE: ±4.9%)

And here are the Presidential numbers:

Barack Obama (D): 44 (42)
John McCain (R): 48 (46)
Undecided: 8 (12)

Wow. These are ground-shaking numbers. No wonder Lee Terry has been fishing so furiously for "Obama-Terry voters" -- he might need a few to survive this November.

Terry's favorables: 54-39 (down from 60-33), while Esch is at 51-30 (from 35-13 in July). Terry's job approval rating has also taken a dive -- from 60-34 in July to 53-43 today. With the DCCC currently pounding Terry on the airwaves, these numbers could fall even further.

Update: One thing that's worth mentioning is the sample's composition. This poll pegs the African-American vote at 4%, while the population of the 2nd District is 10.2% black according to the Almanac of American Politics. If those voters turn out, they could tip the balance here.

Partial crosstabs given exclusively to the Swing State Project are available below the fold.
James L. :: NE-02: New Poll Shows Esch in a Dead Heat, Obama Close
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NE-02: New Poll Shows Esch in a Dead Heat, Obama Close | 21 comments
Nice
After worrying about losing an electoral vote in Maine, let's make the Republicans worry about losing one in Nebraska.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Whoa
Anzalone is a good pollster.  I'm starting to feel good about this district, on both fronts.
exciting
Well, that explains the Obama-Terry voter ad.

This also reflects well on the Nate Silver 538 model.

Progressive New Jersey news at Blue Jersey.

I wish Obama would visit Omaha
For Jim Esch as well as himself.  It could be the difference maker.
Yes!
And Lincoln! NE-01 is still plausibly in play, as well. A visit to Nebraska might even put Kleeb in play ...
[ Parent ]
What is 'in play' supposed to mean?
Keep him within 20 points?
[ Parent ]
No -- it means put it on the map, and then roll the dice
NE-Sen and the eastern two congressional districts are winnable. That doesn't mean they are likely to flip, but considering how solidly Dem Iowa is now, the demographics aren't terrible for us. It's worth a one day trip to try and put another Senate seat, and maybe another House seat, in play.

We could be on the verge of an historic election, anything really could happen. I suspect there will be 5 or 10 races that aren't even really on the map that will flip this year, because the electorate is that ornery.  

[ Parent ]
Which district is Lincoln, Nebraska?
The one where our candidate has only raised $11,000?  Or the one where our candidate hasn't even raised enough money to bother filing?

In 2006 Fortenberry spent just over 1.1 million dollars for re-election to the Democrat's just under 1 million dollars.  He won 64%-36%.  

In 2006 Adrian Smith (Although I'm guessing this is not the Lincoln district) spent about 1.25 million dollars to Kleeb's .975 million.  Smith cruised 55%-45%.  

If either of these districts are supposed to be put into play because of a magical appearance by Obama, I would love to hear which one and why.  

[ Parent ]
NE-01
is the district. And I don't expect it'll flip, but it is similar demographically to NE-02 (Omaha), although with about 10% more total white people (90 versus 80 in NE-02), and includes the outer Omaha 'burbs and Lincoln in eastern Nebraska.

The Smith/Kleeb '06 race is NE-03, about the most Republican district in all of America (R+24). That Kleeb could get within 10 points in that district means that he has a shot, even at this late date, to carry the whole state, imo.

NE-01 (Fortenberry) is R+12, versus NE-01 (Terry) which is R+9. In '06, Fortenberry won NE-01 over Maxine Moul, 58-42, and on '04 Fortenberry won his first race 54-43 (don't know where you got your numbers, mine are from CQ). You are however correct that Yashirin is basically raising no money, while Fortenberry's opponents in '04 and '06 spent close to on par with him. With Obama and Kleeb in full effect, this thing could happen, altho still very unlikely at this point. The cash disparity is a killer; it's too bad Moul didn't run again.  

[ Parent ]
Odd
Usually Opensecrets is on w their percentages.  I was getting fundraising numbers from '06 here.  http:/www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=NE01&cycle=2006  And for some reason their numbers are apparently off here.  
[ Parent ]
apparently the
http://www.opensecrets.org/rac...
...The link got screwed up because of some shortkeys
[ Parent ]
75% of NE-03
voted for Bush. The fact the Kleeb was within 10 is amazing.  
[ Parent ]
I think it's worth a trip
While I agree with Jeremiah about the really long-shot nature of this, I think it's worth an Obama trip.  It would only take a few hours on the way to Colorado or Nevada (I'm sure he's going to be flying out West at least a couple of times in what's left of the campaign), and that type of attention can go a long way in an area that's typically ignored.  Also, "Obama stopping off in Nebraska" I think would play well in the rest of the country.
[ Parent ]
Obama can make news
Obama needs to get off his well beaten track. He's been to Dayton four times already. What is the projected excitement factor for a fifth stop in that fair city? I'm stunned with boredom to contemplate it. If Obama really wants to make news in Dayton, he should go to Omaha and Houston and Little Rock and Shreveport and Louisville and Charleston ...

Barring intervention by Osama bin Laden, our side has about 350 EVs in the bag. Now the job is to run up the score, to get the mandate that comes with carrying 40 states, getting 55% of the vote, and electing a dozen Senators and 50 new Democrats to the House. Got to get out of the Dayton rut to do that. And now his time is running out.

[ Parent ]
Uh...that's just a little bit of complacency
I agree that Obama should spend a day in Nebraska. But still, I think you are a little overzealous.  
[ Parent ]
What price to pay?
What's the cost of leaving possible victories on the table? How many excess and surplus Democratic Senators do you see coming out of this election? How large a margin in the House do we need to neutralize the Blue Dog compromisers? How many electoral votes are we comfortable losing by one percentage point or two? How many million total votes more than McCain's total will provide a real mandate? Don't we want to crush them, destroy them, force them to rebuild their party into an opposition that's not nutty and hateful?

Complacent? When I look at FiveThirtyEight.com I see the likelihood of an Obama win around 95%, the likelihood of an Obama landslide at about 35%, the chance of 60 seats in the Senate at 30%. Do you think Nate has got the math wrong? I want to push up that landslide percentage up a few points, grab 62 Senate seats, take 50 House seats, carry 40 states, win with 55% and millions of votes -- I want to crush them, destroy them, force them to change.

Polling shows WVa within reach and some people are surprised. I see it as a portent of things to come (and a signal that he needs to make a stop in Charleston.) Democrats are surging all across the South, from VA and NC to FL and GA to LA and TX. If WVa and MO are now Lean Democratic, AR is an unpolled toss-up. Obama needs to go to Little Rock and get into every other media market that reaches into the state, two-fers like Shreveport and Memphis. It's time for Obama to head into the South and ask the white people for their votes. They are ready to hear him.

Time is running out for Obama to make the move to maximize  a national sweep. He's got a lockdown on about 28 states, but another half a dozen will go his way if the current trends continue, possibly a dozen more if he reaches out to them.  The trends I see are the economy going down the toilet -- layoffs up, unemployment up, foreclosures up -- and a country ever more comfortable with Obama himself and with the need for change from the White House to the Capitol to the state officials.

I'm afraid it's been so long since Democrats won big that we don't know what to do with it when the opportunities are staring us in the face. And Obama has no experience at all whatsoever at being at the top of the ticket when downticket allies need his coattails. His races have always been for his own election alone. Now he needs to lead the party as he prepares to lead the nation. Go for it! Seize the day! Ride this wave to massive victory.

[ Parent ]
Doubt Osama could do much
He's more or less an afterthought nowadays.  The economy has trumped every other issue.
[ Parent ]
If we pick up this seat
this means we are probably picking up 45 seats.  
Black turnout estimates
Are you serious? If they're underestimating the Black vote by that much, the Republicans are in big trouble in this CD. What do past turnout rates look like for this district?
Wow, Obama is only 4 points from picking up
an extra electoral college vote from NE-02???
I just SO hope that happens. That would be very cool
also
there was this dailykos diary on this topic last week:
33 Days until Nebraska elects Obama
Obama is putting a fair amount of resources in NE-02. That certainly can only help Esch
[ Parent ]
NE-02: New Poll Shows Esch in a Dead Heat, Obama Close | 21 comments

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