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CT-04: Himes Up 3 in New SUSA Poll

by: DavidNYC

Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 11:37 PM EDT

SurveyUSA for Roll Call (10/13-14, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jim Himes (D): 48
Chrissy Shays (R-inc): 45
(MoE: ±4%)

Shays's favorables: 43-32; Himes: 39-22. Shays has a small lead among independents, 46-42, but it's not going to be enough. That's because Obama leads McCain 59-37 in this district - in other words, Democrats are energized. (Remember, Kerry carried this district by just six points.)

This race is far from over, but I wouldn't want to be in Shays's shoes right now.

UPDATE: Crosstabs are available here.

DavidNYC :: CT-04: Himes Up 3 in New SUSA Poll

Tags: SurveyUSA, Polls, Chris Shays, Jim Himes, CT-04, (All Tags)

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CT-04: Himes Up 3 in New SUSA Poll | 13 comments

Great news

He might be my favorite candidate this year. From what I've seen, he is unabashedly progressive. Connecticut residents - and all Americans - would be better served with him in the House.

by: wpa1984 @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 22:53:44 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

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Really?

Maybe I need to pay more attention here! I like me some Jim Himes! ;-)

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats

by: atdleft @ Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 00:09:25 AM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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Hooray!

I think this is the year we win.

And I think Himes is going to replace Corporate Joe in 2012.

by: Populista @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 23:12:14 PM CDT

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Or, in a perfect world...

Ned Lamont takes Lieberman's seat (how's that for poetic justice?). Himes stays in the House and eventually takes Sen. Dodd's seat. I'd read that Sen. Dodd was looking at retirement in 2010 or 2016, but who knows if that's true. Who knows if Lamont would consider running again? It would be nice to have Himes in the Senate sooner, but Lieberman deserves to lose badly to Lamont.

by: wpa1984 @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 23:33:12 PM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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Dodd told the FEC

He's not running in 2010, but that could obviously change. If he does run for re-election, he's got pretty pedestrian approval numbers but the CT GOP bench is basically 2-deep and Jodi Rell is by all indications running for re-election. But also, Dodd has a massive war chest and he's a helluva campaigner.

If he didn't run for re-election, I think Dick Blumenthal would be the more obvious choice over Lamont. Blumenthal seems to have much more interest in the senate than Governor.

by: safi @ Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 01:20:19 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I'll second Ned Lamont running again.

I loved that guy. He seemed like an edgy Mr. Rogers.

by: nrimmer @ Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 08:40:17 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

New England Sweep

Republicans need not compete here after Shays' reign is put to rest.

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 23:16:35 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

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Have to hold NH-01 if we want the bragging rights.

Now what is the best case scenario re: New York. There's still gonna be Peter King and John McHugh, but we're running at Fossella's seat, Reynolds', Kuhl's, and Walsh's, and we seem to have all but Reynolds' in the bag already.

So best case scenario, we reduce the GOP to only two House seats in ALL OF NEW YORK + NEW ENGLAND.

That's hot.

by: texas dem @ Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 14:49:51 PM CDT

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It's also interesting because that's how long it took for the Civil War alignment to die out.

I'm guessing that the GOP was strong in New England even through the 30s and 40s, so it should be a more or less steady fall from 1864 til now.

by: texas dem @ Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 14:51:57 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

MOAR EXCELLENT NEWS!!! FOR THE "GOP PARTY"!!! (h/t: Dino)

With Gilcrest gone, Shays and Mary Bono are in competition for the least odious Republican House member. He always seems like a geniuinely nice guy but sets my gaydar off something fierce.

by: Tyler Oakley @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 23:48:12 PM CDT

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Really?

I guess I'm missing something here... Or I'm so mesmerized by David Dreier's (CA-26) closet case hypocrisy. Either way, I need to better tune in my gaydar! ;-)

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats

by: atdleft @ Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 00:05:53 AM CDT

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I'd go with Castle (DE-AL)

I believe he has the most liberal voting record of any house republican.

by: ChadInFL @ Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 09:06:12 AM CDT

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