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WA-08: Burner Leads In Another Dem Poll

by: Crisitunity

Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 2:53 PM EDT

Lake Research Associates for Darcy Burner (10/11-14, likely voters, 9/23-25 in parentheses):

Darcy Burner (D): 47 (45)
Dave Reichert (R): 40 (48)
(MoE: ±4.4%)

There was a sudden wave of pessimism about this race in the blogosphere (and elsewhere) last week in the face of two bad polls (an 8-point deficit in a public poll from R2K via Daily Kos, and a 3-point deficit in a Dem-sponsored poll). Things seem to have turned on a dime in the Eighth District, though.

Coming right after yesterday's surprising DCCC poll giving Burner a five-point edge, here comes a second Dem poll from Lake (who found the 3-point deficit last time) showing Burner up by 7. I'd still like to see a poll from SurveyUSA of this race before I feel confident that it's tracking alongside other possibly-successful rematches (like NC-08 and IL-10), but this has to be a real confidence booster.

As I've stated elsewhere, this is a district dominated by Microsoft and Boeing, and isn't as directly impacted by chaos in the financial sector as a lot of other affluent suburban areas may be. However, Microserfs and Boeing employees still have 401(k)s, and I suspect they may have finally opened their statements last week.

Update: The full polling memo is available below the fold.

Crisitunity :: WA-08: Burner Leads In Another Dem Poll
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And now Reichert is attacking us!

Check that out.

Also Lunsford outraised Mitch 3.2 mil to 2.5 mil but has way less on hand and 2.4 of that was from a loan.

I can't really tell
But are they using footage of a woman shaking her head while wearing an Obama button?

[ Parent ]
It definitely looks like she has a "Women for Obama" button on.

[ Parent ]
I saw that too
I thought I was crazy though.

[ Parent ]
Speaking of Darcy, she just fundraised her way back into Toss Up in my book
7/31/08 - 9/30/08 (2 Months)
3Q = $843K
CTD = $3,186K
COH = $771K

I'm still not buying it.
If Burner was well ahead like this poll indicates, it should have been mirrored by the two polls last week. Which one do you think is the outlier?

WA-08 is a money trap. Dumping $3 million every two years in a district Kerry won is a complete waste.

It's foolish to dump money into races that cannot be won.  But, how in the world would you classify this as one of those?  Extremely close in 2006.  Democratic turf.  Phenomenal fundraiser.  Candidate great on the issues and loyal Democrat.  This race certainly deserves our and the party's support.

[ Parent ]

Puget Sound is like Maricopa County- it's big enough and close enough that Democrats have to put up one big fight every election, successful or not.  So far it's also an area where once post-1994 Democrats win, they keep the seat/district.  And it presumably net funds locally, i.e. the DCCC gets more out of Seattle area Democrats than it puts in.

[ Parent ]
I'm glad you're not Van Hollen.
   Why should we write off the candidate who raised nearly $1.2 million last quarter?  I thought money was everything in politics.  Are there any races you're optimistic about?  Probably any race with a really conservative male challenger?

24, Male, GA-05

[ Parent ]
Ha, I must have hit a nerve.
Her sex doesn't have a damn thing to do with it and I really don't like most conservative Dems. And I'm definitely not saying I don't want her to win. Burner should win taking into account the D+2 lean of WA-08. But she just hasn't been able to do it. When our candidates in R+ districts can turn a race into a toss-up yet a candidate in a district Kerry won can't (that's John Kerry for chrissakes), it raises a red flag for me.

And its exactly as you said, she has raised tons of money. But money obviously can't buy you an election judging from the polls we have seen of this race. It seems stupid to me to channel resources to a candidate who doesn't need more money ('cuz obviously its not helping), while some of our other candidates are starving for cash. Shulman in NJ-05, Perriello in VA-05 and Baker in MO-09 are perfect examples of where netroots money could have done way more good.

I am of the opinion that Burner is a friend of some VIP bloggers and, just like Jon Powers, this friendship has proved lucrative. If we don't win WA-08 in Nov, we should definitely reevaluate how and why a candidate becomes a "darling" of the netroots. That way, in 2010 we can really stick it to 'em.  

[ Parent ]

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