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OR-Sen: Merkley Leads by 5

by: James L.

Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 3:42 PM EDT

This one isn't available online yet, but the Portland-based KATU-TV just aired the results of a new poll that they commissioned of the Oregon Senate race. Let's have a look.

SurveyUSA (10/11-12, likely voters, 9/22-23 in parens):

Jeff Merkley (D): 46 (44)
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 41 (42)
Dave Brownlow (C): 7 (8)
(MoE: ±4.1%)

Check out the Pollster.com trend (which does not yet include this poll). Call it a downward spiral for El Gordo, if you will:

UPDATE: Crosstabs available here. And here's a bonus finding for you: Obama leads McCain by 57-40 in the same poll. (H/T: skywaker9)

James L. :: OR-Sen: Merkley Leads by 5

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OR-Sen: Merkley Leads by 5 | 22 comments

Did anyone really doubt Merkley had the Big Mo?

Now he clearly does. Smith is going down!

by: skywaker9 @ Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 14:45:40 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

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Are these post-debate results?

I'm really curious about public opinion in the aftermath of the Oct. 10th debate. If this is inclusive of those results, things look good. There's actually another debate tonight in Medford, so we'll hope the streak continues!

by: nautilus1700 @ Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 16:06:50 PM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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Expect a OR-SEN Rasmussen poll today ot tomorrow

They came out with a OR-Pres poll days ago so a Senate poll should be forthcoming.

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 14:48:04 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

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Also expect a Hibbits poll soon

Hibbits is the gold standard of Oregon polling (similar to the Field poll in OR). He usually releases a poll about this far out.

by: skywaker9 @ Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 14:49:15 PM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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Maybe tomorrow

But not today. Here's what they have on tap for this evening:

6 p.m. Eastern: Virginia President
6 p.m. Eastern: North Carolina President
6 p.m. Eastern: Missouri President
6 p.m. Eastern: Ohio President
6 p.m. Eastern: Florida President

by: James L. @ Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 14:53:26 PM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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My guesses

VA - Obama by 3
NC - Obama by 4
FL - Obama by 1
MO - Obama by 4
OH - Obama by 2

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 15:00:23 PM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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It is Rasmussen so

VA - O +1
NC - Tie
FL - Tie
MO - O +1
OH - M +1

by: conspiracy @ Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 15:12:50 PM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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The last set of Ras

polls from those states was, VA-Obama +2, NC-Obama +1, FL-Obama+3, Ohio-McCain +1, and MO-Obama +3.

I don't expect to see too much change from that.

by: safi @ Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 15:59:13 PM CDT

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Actual numbers

VA-Obama +3
NC-Obama Tie
FL-Obama +5
OH-Obama +2
MO-Obama +3

by: conspiracy @ Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 17:03:05 PM CDT

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Good numbers

Especially good to see Florida is holding for Obama. If he wins Florida there is zero chance he loses the race.

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 17:47:15 PM CDT

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will brownlow really get that much?

n/t

being normal is for the mediocre.

by: doug_tuttle @ Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 14:52:40 PM CDT

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Maybe some Republicans are upset

That Gordo is using Kerry/Kennedy/Obama in his ads and running such a mushy middle campaign. Who knows.

by: James L. @ Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 14:54:16 PM CDT

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They were already pissed at him

For taking a non-racist immigration position.

by: skywaker9 @ Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 14:56:17 PM CDT

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Maybe

Mary Starett, who was the Constitution Party nominee for Governor, got 4% in 2006 because Saxton was not seen as far right enough for many Rs....Granted that race wasn't as close as Kulongoski won by 8.

by: skywaker9 @ Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 14:55:47 PM CDT

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I'll wager yes

A lot of right-wingers already view Smith as a RINO because of his breaks with the GOP on Iraq and Medicaid. Throw in the revelations about his employing undocumented immigrants at his frozen pea factory, and you've got open revolt on the nativist right flank.

by: Crisitunity @ Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 14:56:21 PM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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It's possible, but not likely

Brownlow is appealing to the disaffecteds, but when it comes right down to coloring in that dot for him, who knows if they'll really pull the trigger.

The real key in Oregon is going to be GOTV. Obama and Merkley's field operation here is very, very good.

I would caution that polling during the primary seemed to be somewhat Portland-centric, so we should definitely NOT sit on our laurels. Smith could do well outside of Multnomah County--which would make it very tough for Jeff.

by: carla @ Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 15:49:13 PM CDT

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The Vote By Mail System

How does the vote-by-mail system Oregon uses effect the campaigns' GOTV efforts? It seems as though it would be a tad more difficult simply because it's different, but that's a visceral reaction without any evidence to back it up.

Mad At Thad: A Blog Devoted To Ousting Rep. Thaddeus McCotter, Republican - Michigan

by: Sean Fitzpatrick @ Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 19:27:16 PM CDT

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It makes it easier

We know when you've turned in your ballot (since they verify the signatures) so its effective a targeting exercise spread out over 2.5 weeks. Greatly increases turnout.

by: skywaker9 @ Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 19:53:24 PM CDT

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Crosstabs out

Crosstabs up: http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

Bonus poll (OR Pres): http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

by: skywaker9 @ Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 19:53:37 PM CDT

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Wow - Obama by 17

Do those crosstabs pass the smell test Sky? A 9 point voter edge for Dems doesn't seem too high does it?

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 20:26:45 PM CDT

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Makes relative sense

Kerry won Oregon by 4, and lost 3 nationwide.

If Obama's winning by 10 points nationally, as some polls have him doing, he's performing 13 points better than Kerry, so he wins Oregon by 17. It is a tad bit high for him, though... I would say actual numbers would be more like a 10-12 point win at this point. Note that Nate Silver's regression model has Obama+18, and overall model O+15, so this isn't much off.

by: MichiganLiberal @ Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 20:38:16 PM CDT

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That's about what it is

We have between a 10-12% edge actually.

by: skywaker9 @ Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 22:46:54 PM CDT

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