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Independent Expenditure Roundup: 10/6-12

by: James L.

Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 11:17 PM EDT

A round-up of all the major House race Independent Expenditures field in the last seven days:

District	Incumbent	Group	Last Week	Total
AK-AL	Young	DCCC	$798,068	$965,980
AK-AL	Young	DWAF	-	$25,000
AL-02	Open	DCCC	$148,169	$420,136
AL-02	Open	NRCC	$84,316	$96,316
AL-05	Open	DCCC	$117,129	$408,700
AL-05	Open	NRCC	$113,353	$113,353
AZ-01	Open	DCCC	$248,207	$973,544
AZ-03	Shadegg	DCCC	$309,689	$697,548
AZ-05	Mitchell	DCCC	$256,884	$965,046
AZ-08	Giffords	DCCC	$115,324	$318,037
CA-11	McNerney	DCCC	$14,049	$208,102
CA-11	McNerney	NARPAC	$258,251	$720,695
CO-04	Musgrave	DCCC	$32,896	$70,233
CO-04	Musgrave	DWAF	$665,000	$916,974
CO-04	Musgrave	EMILY	$82,057	$82,057
CT-04	Shays	DCCC	$179,113	$648,948
CT-04	Shays	NARPAC	-	$505,670
FL-13	Buchanan	EMILY	-	$19,000
FL-16	Mahoney	DCCC	$9,729	$431,095
FL-24	Feeney	DCCC	$268,606	$484,026
FL-24	Feeney	CFG	$166,875	$166,875
ID-01	Sali	DCCC	-	$11,475
ID-01	Sali	NRCC	-	$18,500
IL-10	Kirk	DCCC	$86,800	$405,612
IL-11	Open	DCCC	$109,211	$710,024
IL-11	Open	EMILY	$46,012	$162,185
IN-09	Hill	DCCC	$195,485	$413,716
KS-02	Boyda	CULAC	$78,883	$78,883
KY-02	Open	DCCC	$162,387	$382,957
LA-06	Cazayoux	Grigsby	$34,502	$34,502
LA-06	Cazayoux	DCCC	$186,520	$442,151
LA-06	Cazayoux	NRCC	$62,230	$62,230
MD-01	Open	DCCC	$245,565	$637,110
MD-01	Open	CFG	$209,940	$209,940
MI-07	Walberg	DCCC	$172,031	$437,800
MI-07	Walberg	AFSCME	$500,000	$500,000
MI-07	Walberg	NRCC	$262,019	$307,994
MI-07	Walberg	CFG	-	$189,942
MI-09	Knollenberg	SEIU	$15,771	$77,866
MI-09	Knollenberg	DCCC	$268,166	$643,659
MI-09	Knollenberg	NARPAC	-	$533,760
MN-03	Open	DCCC	$278,785	$904,339
MO-06	Graves	DCCC	$206,998	$233,510
MO-09	Open	DCCC	$114,552	$207,258
MO-09	Open	CULAC	$17,130	$17,130
MS-01	Childers	DCCC	$11,600	$29,265
NC-08	Hayes	DCCC	$310,205	$920,669
NH-01	Shea-Porter	DCCC	$367,810	$1,061,849
NJ-03	Open	DCCC	$136,931	$525,874
NJ-03	Open	NRCC	$93,665	$164,916
NJ-07	Open	DCCC	$160,125	$874,509
NM-01	Open	DCCC	$191,189	$866,421
NM-02	Open	DCCC	$204,415	$464,432
NV-03	Porter	DCCC	$244,051	$612,661
NV-03	Porter	NRCC	-	$15,046
NY-26	Open	DCCC	$264,697	$554,247
NY-29	Kuhl	DCCC	-	$8,576
OH-01	Chabot	SEIU	$18,625	$91,076
OH-01	Chabot	DCCC	$298,659	$692,560
OH-01	Chabot	NRCC	$396,160	$396,160
OH-02	Schmidt	NRCC	-	$11,000
OH-15	Open	DCCC	$227,371	$1,031,337
OH-15	Open	EMILY	$41,551	$51,646
OH-15	Open	NRCC	$45,705	$73,131
OH-16	Open	DCCC	$232,831	$1,035,229
PA-03	English	DCCC	$183,076	$599,418
PA-03	English	NRCC	$123,574	$301,212
PA-03	English	AMAPAC	$155,335	$155,335
PA-10	Carney	DCCC	$215,438	$520,324
PA-11	Kanjorski	DCCC	$199,098	$690,359
PA-11	Kanjorski	NARPAC	-	$1,037,000
TX-22	Lampson	DCCC	-	$382,682
TX-23	Rodriguez	DCCC	$115,915	$299,964
TX-23	Rodriguez	NARPAC	$126,682	$593,770
VA-02	Drake	SEIU	-	$150,000
VA-02	Drake	DCCC	$173,724	$173,724
VA-11	Open	DCCC	$127,343	$549,345
VA-11	Open	NARPAC	$324,000	$324,000
WA-08	Reichert	DCCC	$235,640	$254,692
WI-08	Kagen	DCCC	$119,708	$275,037
WI-08	Kagen	AMAPAC	$16,800	$16,800
WI-08	Kagen	NRCC	$148,580	$284,982
WV-02	Capito	NARPAC	$436,000	$436,000
		Total Blue	$11,032,386	$30,075,951
		Total Red	$3,203,457	$4,436,307

As always, this total does not include expenditures from 501(c)(4) groups like Freedom's Crotch (who have spent a few million bucks against Democrats in a handful of districts) and the Dem-allied Majority Action. The NRA and a few other groups are making some very piddly expenditures in a few races (the NRA on billboards in about a dozen contested districts), but they're not included in this roundup for the sake of brevity. More details are available at SSP's Independent Expenditure Tracker.

James L. :: Independent Expenditure Roundup: 10/6-12

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Independent Expenditure Roundup: 10/6-12 | 23 comments

Question: What's "Grigsby?"

by: andgarden @ Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 22:40:31 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

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A guy with a vendetta

Against Don Cazayoux:

http://cazayouxtruth.org/about/

by: DavidNYC @ Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 23:03:02 PM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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And unions. Yikes.

by: andgarden @ Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 23:43:16 PM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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Randy "Shotgun" Kuhl is not a Democrat. n/t

by: wmlawman @ Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 22:44:18 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

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I was mistaken for so long! :)

Thanks for catching that.

by: James L. @ Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 22:46:16 PM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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MD-01

Does the d-trip feel that good about Kratovil's chances, or is part of it that Van Hollen and Hoyer really want to get the job done in their backyard?

Don't get me wrong, I am glad it is winnable and they're spending there, but I think that's part of why we're seeing the buying spree in the district.

by: Andy Dufresne @ Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 23:30:54 PM CDT

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If I had to guess...

Coupled with the Gilchrest endorsement, and the relative electoral weakness of Harris, it is a winnable district... (Strategically we should be able to gerrymander it into something relatively more D-Friendly)

However, I would hope it's a district we could trick the NRCC into dropping a lot of money into.

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 23:37:37 PM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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It's gerrymandered in the opposite direction now

But who knows.

by: andgarden @ Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 23:44:02 PM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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Yes, and like I said

You should be able to make it a more D-Friendly district if you un-gerrymander it in a state like Maryland, especially considering that Democrats are the ones who gerrymandered it the way it is in the first place.

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 23:48:26 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Maryland's map was intended to be 6-2

When they drew the current lines, the map was intended to create all safe seats: six for the Democrats, and two for the Republicans. This district should not be competitive at all, as they squeezed in all the Republicans they could into the First and Roscoe Barlett's Sixth District, and they're something like R+10 and R+13.

That this district is in play is a testament to the stupidity of the Club for Growth. Wayne Gilchrest would have never lost a general election here. If they lose this seat, we should send a bouquet to the Club's offices.

by: Andy Dufresne @ Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 23:52:08 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Ya, those two are very republican MD districts

But they are not batshit crazy republican districts. An R+10 district in Maryland isn't the same as an R+10 district in Alabama or Georgia. Andy Harris is pretty far to the right for MD-01.

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 01:36:27 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Poll

They had a poll the other week that had the two of them tied. I wouldn't be surprised if Harris did a poll recently as well and did not release it. I'll be checking his FEC filings to see if he did.

by: mahimahi1414 @ Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 15:41:43 PM CDT

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OH-01

That the NRCC has dumped more money into this district than other is telling, and it's pretty clear why, imho. This is a pretty marginal district, but the Republicans know that if they lose the district, they will never elect a guy as conservative to the First again.

Steve Chabot is extremely conservative, and the fact that he has been able to survive in such a close district with such an arch-conservative record is amazing. They're doing everything they can to keep the wingnut in the seat. I can't say I disagree with Tom Cole's rationale given his perspective.

by: Andy Dufresne @ Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 23:48:10 PM CDT

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I can't imagine that the NRCC

cares that much about ideology. A Republican is a Republican is a Republican to them. At least, that's how it's supposed to work.

by: andgarden @ Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 00:13:43 AM CDT

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They know they wont get OH-01 back

if they lose it.

by: BillNolan @ Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 00:25:57 AM CDT

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They won't get OH-15 and 16 back either

But I'm sure they know those two are un-winnable at this point anyway.

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 01:32:46 AM CDT

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Ugg... there goes the Club for Growth

Trying to save my disgrace of a congressman Tom Feeney. Do they have some sort of scumbag test for who they donate to? Honestly, wouldn't it make more sense for them to donate to ultra-conservatives who don't come off as completely unelectable slimeballs? Then they wouldn't need to waste so much money on what should be safely republican districts every cycle.

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 01:53:59 AM CDT

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Carol Shea-Porter reverse

In 2006, Jeb Bradley outspent Carol Shea Porter by more than 3-1 with CSP spending under $300 k and Bradley spending about $1.1 million. The NRCC (or maybe RNC) invested their nominal $10 K for a poll and spent elsewhwere. This time around CSP had already raised $900 K by the 6/30 deadline and the DCCC has poured in over $1 million. Jeb was back around $700 K and had spent most of that on his primary.

by: David Kowalski @ Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 10:41:58 AM CDT

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in all honesty

I'm not worried about CSP at all. On paper, tough race. How it will actually play out, she'll win comfortably. She already beat the dude once, in an even less favorable year, in a non-presidential year when Obama appears he is going to win by a solid 10% at the top, Sheehan will win by upper single digits. Lynch will win by about 70% (hahaha), there is just a hell of a lot of up-ticket races that are going to win by healthy margins that will help out CSP, which I really dont think she even needs the help.

Again, on paper we should spend $1 million on her but if we had just let it all play out, I'm confident we would've won anyway. But it's better to win by 10% than by 3%.

by: Andrew @ Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 12:40:13 PM CDT

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We locals can't stop worrying, but

she did raise $320k in the quarter just ended. Her opponent is probably still funding his campaign with his lunch money. So that's good, I guess.

by: Bill Duncan @ Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 16:45:42 PM CDT

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