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NV-03: Porter Leads by 3 in New Poll

by: James L.

Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 1:03 PM EDT

Mason-Dixon for the Las Vegas Review-Journal (10/8-9, likely voters, 6/9-11 in parens):

Dina Titus (D): 40 (42)
Jon Porter (R-inc): 43 (45)
Other: 4
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±6.4%)

The last couple of polls we've seen from this district, both of them Anzalone Liszt internals from July and September, have both shown Titus leading by four and nine points, respectively. (Even Porter's own internal poll showed him leading by only a 41-39 margin.)

The best news for Porter in this poll is Titus' favorability rating, which clocks in at 37-46 (compared to 40-34). The RGJ speculates that Porter's hits against Titus are giving him the same kind of traction that Jim Gibbons got in his gubernatorial campaign against Titus in 2006. In the latest Anzalone poll of this race, those numbers were flipped: Titus had a 50-37 favorable score, while Porter was only at 44-41.

In any case, no incumbent is in a good position at 43% in the polls, and Porter will have to slog this one out on his own for a little while before the NRCC kicks in on his behalf.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

Bonus finding: Obama leads McCain by 47-45 statewide.

James L. :: NV-03: Porter Leads by 3 in New Poll

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NV-03: Porter Leads by 3 in New Poll | 16 comments

Titus is going to win this thing 53-47.

Their Pres. numbers also show a much tighter race than other pollsters have shown it.

by: Tyler Oakley @ Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 12:10:10 PM CDT

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At least

My thinking is that 53-46 is as close as it's going to be. I'd put the winnign margin at somewhere between 5-12 points for Titus.

by: ChadInFL @ Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 12:14:29 PM CDT

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You think so?

I hope so! Hell, I've already booked my hotel room on The Strip so I can go there & make sure it becomes so! :-)

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by: atdleft @ Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 20:22:05 PM CDT

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Ya, I really do

And it's no fault of Jon Porter's. He seems like a saavy politician who has run a good campaign as he usually does. It's just the rapidly changing demographics, registration trends and strong performance in the district by Obama that are going to do him in. It's a good thing too because he's the republican I worry about most for future statewide races in NV.

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 01:39:58 AM CDT

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Yes...

CNN had Obama +5 in Nevada while The Reno Gazette Journal had Obama +7. Considering how Mason-Dixon polling seems to be suffering from a Republican leaning house effect, I suspect CNN & RGZ are closer to the truth here.

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by: atdleft @ Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 20:18:00 PM CDT

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That's a very small sample size

only 236 people. The Anzalone-List poll from September was 500 people districtwide. Hasn't Mason-Dixon's polling been strangely unfavorable to us lately? I believe their latest Virginia poll has McCain up 2. I'll wait for more independent polling before I believe that Porter is still in this.

"[Rush Limbaugh] is a sorry excuse for a human being and a has-been hypocrite loser who was more lucid when he was a drug addict." Congressman Alan Grayson (D-FL)

by: Menhen @ Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 12:10:51 PM CDT

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Mason-Dixon seems to lean 3-5 pts R this year

by: andgarden @ Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 12:34:46 PM CDT

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Mason-Dixon leans 3-5 pts R every year

by: conspiracy @ Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 12:39:22 PM CDT

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A 236 person sample size?

That's the tini.

What's next? They'll have a 10 person sample and call it a poll?

by: Populista @ Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 12:45:21 PM CDT

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Polling stupid ppl

95% MoE

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 12:52:17 PM CDT

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That's the reason for the very large margin of error

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

by: TheUnknown285 @ Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 12:56:12 PM CDT

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If Obama wins Nevada

I cant see Titus not winning.

by: BillNolan @ Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 14:43:03 PM CDT

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That feels about right to me (eom)

by: DavidNYC @ Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 15:43:34 PM CDT

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And:

If Obama wins Nevada, that means his coattails can also push Jill Derby over the top in District 3.

by: jpsrosa @ Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 17:25:09 PM CDT

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Its possible

It all depends on where he is focusing his GOTV efforts. If he is just trying to maximize the vote in Clark county like Kerry did in 2004, it will help Titus but not Derby. If he is focusing on winning Washoe county and cutting down Republican margins in the cow counties, this will help Derby as well.

by: BillNolan @ Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 18:09:33 PM CDT

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He has several offices in non-Clarke Nevada

Take a look at the map:

http://my.barackobama.com/page...

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

by: TheUnknown285 @ Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 19:13:44 PM CDT

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