You know things are bad for Republicans when insiders are already starting to murmur about what might happen if their Minority Leader, the odious Bush cheerleader Mitch McConnell, were to be defeated this year. And murmuring they are, according to Roll Call:
Asked whether Republicans have internally entertained the possibility, a top Republican strategist said: "They are just starting to, just a little bit. You need to prepare a contingency plan for 'just in case' scenarios like this one."
A McConnell loss would devastate the GOP Senate caucus, and they know it:
A McConnell defeat, Republicans say, would be salt in the wound for a party staged to suffer significant losses in the House and Senate, and perhaps the White House.
"That would be the worst thing for any of us," one GOP Senate aide said. "If McConnell loses, it would be bad for the caucus, it would be bad for the leadership team. Regardless if you love him or hate him, he has kept the caucus unified and has done it without beating people up."
A Republican leadership aide agreed, saying that while he has often differed with the conservative wing of his party, McConnell has been effective in keeping an often disparate Conference together. "There would be a tremendous void in the ability to corral the Conference. There's no one else out there, like a [former Sen.] Don Nickles who has that ability," the aide said.
The leadership aide also argued that a McConnell loss would almost certainly be part of a much larger turnover in the Senate, arguing that in addition to losing their leader, Republicans would also be largely powerless to stop legislation in the Senate. "You're well north of 60 [votes] if McConnell loses," this source said.
"If McConnell loses, the Republicans would need to create stability immediately," one GOP Senate strategist said. "They will need to coronate a new leader quickly in order to show strength because it's going to be a party in disarray."
As far as Senate contests go, a Mitch McConnell defeat would be the biggest political earthquake of election night. That said, it's not going to happen without a lot of hard work and resources devoted to tearing McConnell down. I'd still have to give the GOP at least a slight edge in this contest due to Democrat Bruce Lunsford's lingering baggage from his hard-fought 2003 gubernatorial campaign, but the idea of "Dasche-ling" McConnell feels less and less like a pipe dream as of late, especially with quotes like this one from DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer:
Schumer said Wednesday that Kentucky and Georgia - where GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss is in an unexpectedly tough race - are now on his radar as potential pickups given recent polling.
"They're both tied. Our private polling mirrors the public polling that these are even-steven races. We believe we can win in both of those states. We're devoting resources to them. In fact, you can go on our Web site. Our first Kentucky ad starts today," Schumer said.
