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MN-03: Madia Takes Slim Lead in New SUSA Poll

by: James L.

Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 8:44 PM EDT

SurveyUSA (10/6-7, likely voters, 8/26-28 in parens):

Ashwin Madia (D): 46 (41)
Erik Paulsen (R): 43 (44)
David Dillon (IP): 8
(MoE: ±4%)

These numbers aren't far off from a recent DCCC internal poll showing Madia leading by 44-39. SUSA still seems to have a questionably GOP-tilted sample of young voters (they break for Paulsen by a 51-40 margin in this poll), but that might be offset by a possibly-skewed 53-38 Madia lead among 50-to-64 year-olds.

Interestingly, Tom Scheck over at Minnesota Public Radio writes that the NRCC has scaled back their mid-October ad rotation in support of Paulsen, though the committee still has $216,450 in reserved time available. Are they shifting that scrilla to any number of their many incumbents in tight races?

Bonus finding: Obama leads McCain by 49-47 in this district. Bush beat Kerry here by 51-48 in 2004. Crosstabs are available here (PDF).

James L. :: MN-03: Madia Takes Slim Lead in New SUSA Poll
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the poll has both mccain and paulsen
winning 18-34 year olds by pretty good margins.  are 18-34 year old more conservative in MN?  is it the landline effect?  or does survey usa just suck when it comes to gauging the youth vote?  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

We've seen this pretty consistently
in SUSA's MN polls, and sometimes in their other polling. I find it pretty hard to believe, and many have speculated that there's something of a landline effect going on, as you say.

I guess we won't know until we know, but if McCain wins the youth vote in Minnesota, I'll eat my shoe.

[ Parent ]
Landline effect
I agree that the breakdown seems totally implausible. But would a landline effect account for it? Would cell-phone only young people be more liberal than other young people?

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[ Parent ]
Well I've used strictly a cellphone for 6 years now
And not once have I been called by a pollster.  Jujst saying...

[ Parent ]
The 18-34 year olds that live in the 3rd
are not college students first off.  There isn't a single college in the 3rd except for community colleges so that vote total can't be diluted by the college vote.  Also, the district is wealthy and it's plausible the 18-34 year olds share the moderate fiscal conservative opinions as Ramstad and Paulsen is running a campaign of, dont know anything about me except I'm the next Ramstad, which he obviously isn't.

Do I think that accounts for Paulsen and McCain leading here with this demographic, no.  But it definitely won't be nearly as much of a blowout as in all the other districts (except MN-6, McCain could actually win the 18-34 demographic unless the only univ. in the district gets their shit together)

However, on the flip, this district is upper middle class subarbintes who are trendy, techy, and exactly Obama's demographic.

I cant wait for the exit polls to just solve it once and for all, not that they are really that reliable but still.

[ Parent ]
I Think It's a Pretty Safe Bet To Say....
...that young people in Minnesota are no more (and probably less) Republican than the nation at large.  That last Survey USA polling in Minnesota was devastatingly flawed in every jurisdiction.  In a year such as this, Madia seems like a definite frontrunner here.

[ Parent ]
Madia should win this
and hold it for a long time.  

Let's hope Obama's coattails will carry over to the 6th district so that we can oust the wacky Michelle Bachmann. I don't know how the Dem candidate is faring in there, though.

I dunno
That seems to be the least dem-friendly district in MN.  I'm more optimistic about MN-02 than MN-06.

[ Parent ]
You Shouldn't Be Optimistic About Either....
I never used to believe MN-06 was nearly as conservative as we were led to believe until Bachmann won there.  I just couldn't see the center-right outer suburbanites and St. Cloud area Catholics pulling the lever for a woman that nutty....but not only did they, it doesn't appear that they regret it despite the near daily embarrassments she serves up.  MN-02 is more economically conservative, but just as tough of a nut to crack.

If Minnesota loses a Congressional district after reapportionment, I'm hoping this outer suburban district is merged so that Kline and Bachmann are forced to compete with one another.  Sure, it'll be a hopeless R+10 district, but we'll get all the garbage in one district.

[ Parent ]
That is exactly what I advocate.

The conservative exurbs can easily all be put into one really Republican district that would be around R+10, which we will never win and in all honesty, they definitely deserve at least one seat.  Then Bachmann and Kline would both have to move, which would be kind of funny.  They'd have to run against eachother in the endorsement, and then probably also the primary.  Kline could probably stay where he lives and then run against Walz but he'd lose.  

If we get a DFL governor, let's do it.  

[ Parent ]
Top recruit
Wasn't Paulsen another one of the republicans few supposedly star recruits this cycle?

I'd say their most highly-touted recruits were:

Eric Paulsen (MN-03)
Darren White (NM-01)
Lou Barletta (PA-11)
Steve Stivers (OH-15)
Brett Guthrie (KY-02)

And that dude in FL-15 (Posey) who took that race off the board.

[ Parent ]
whatever happened to Rick Goddard
and Tim Bee. Or Mumpower and Sweatland, or Robert Straniere

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
The DCCC isn't counting out Bee yet
They just put out another negative ad attacking him.

[ Parent ]
Ah yeah
And let's not forget Sean Sullivan. Even his own campaign spokesman rates that race as "Safe Democratic"!

[ Parent ]
GA-08 has been strangely quiet
The DCCC has thus far stayed out of that race and no internals have been released, so I take that as a sign that Marshall is doing fine.

[ Parent ]
My Suspicion.... that it'll close tight just as it did in 2006.  Hopefully Marshall isn't caught off-guard.

[ Parent ]

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Tim Bee is a coward and a fraud
I will be working my Republican mother over hard to vote against this supreme asshole.  I put it to her in terms of Tim Bee wasting tax payer monies rerunning unsuccessful referendums.  But mother is obsessed with Mexican illegals (they live 50 miles from the Mex-US border in Green Valley) and if that issue reignites in the district who knows what she will do.

Bee is the State Senator who provided the final vote necessary to place another gay marriage ban amendment on the ballot in 2008 in the aftermath of the defeat of an even worse amendment in 2006.  After providing the decisive vote to place the gay marriage ban on the ballot, Bee had the nerve to state publicly that he didn't know how he would vote on the amendment and that he would not be announcing how he would vote on the amendment at all.

I can respect an honest hatemonger like the late Senator Jesse Helms more than a I respect a cowardly enabler like Tim Bee who is afraid of his own opinions on the issue.

Sen. Tim Bee is a fraud, and a coward, and is unworthy to sit in the US Congress.

Ok, stepping off my soapbox now :)

"My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." -- Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

[ Parent ]
How could you forget Schock, the GOP has done a much better job than the NRCC in terms of recruiting but they still can't hold a candle to the DCCC and Cole blew a lot of money in LA MS and IL on races they should have won

[ Parent ]
Ugh, Aaron Schock
I'm really going to hate watching that asshole come next year. Schock is going to be nothing but a partisan hack (I call him Patrick McHenry's younger brother). All he's going to do is hold up legislation like the rest of the conservative Republicans and go on a tiraid about the "Democrat Party" is screwing up DC with their San Francisco values.

Let's put it this way, he'll be nothing like his predecessor.

[ Parent ]
His Predecessor Being Lahood?
Peoria area Republicans are used to moderate Republicans like Michel and Lahood.  Schock might find that his far-right platform is an overreach for the district.

[ Parent ]
That's what I meant
That his far right views might put him at ease with moderate GOPera in Peoria. Then again it was the same moderate assholes that sent him to Springfield in the first place so maybe they won't mind his views.

[ Parent ]
Either Callahan better step on the gas
Or we run someone more competent in 2010 to beat this guy.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]

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