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(UPDATED) NE-Sen, Pres: Hagel To Announce Plans On Monday

by: DaveSund

Wed Mar 07, 2007 at 1:15 PM EST


(Should Hagel decide to run for President, this would be a map-changing event for Senate Democrats' 2008 battle plans. For months, I've assumed that Hagel was disinclined to run for President, but perhaps he sees an opening for a solid conservative challenger to the Romney/McCain/Giuliani triangle that's been giving grief to so many conservative activists. We're just reading tea leaves here, for now. - promoted by James L.)

Originally posted at UNO Democrats

[The rumors are flying fast now in Nebraska, and it seems like in the next couple of weeks we're going to see some real movement on Hagel's plans. I thought I'd repost this here to pass along the info for all of you - Dave.]

OWH:

  WASHINGTON - For a guy who hasn't announced a presidential bid, Sen. Chuck Hagel's schedule next week looks a lot like that of a candidate.

  He's slated to appear with nine declared presidential hopefuls - including John McCain, Rudolph Giuliani, Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama - before a national firefighters' group.

  He's meeting with his political action committee's steering committee. He's scheduled to attend a Nebraska GOP fund-raiser in Washington.

  And speculation was running high among key Nebraska Republicans that Hagel might announce something Monday.

Follow the money, they say. If Hagel is indeed gearing up for a run, he's got to start raising money and fast. So, this item from the same World-Herald article is noteworthy:

  The day before that speech, Hagel is expected to attend a Nebraska Republican Party fund-raiser in Washington. Then, on Thursday, he's to sit down with the steering committee of his Sandhills PAC.

  For months, Hagel's fundraising had been all but dormant. But he held two fundraisers in the last week, including one Friday in New York City, raising $80,000 for his Senate and PAC campaign funds.

While the money from his Senate campaign account can be transferred into a Presidential account, it is the PAC activity that would hint strongly at a run for President. This article adds a bit of fuel to the months of speculation about Hagel's political future, and its potential impact on the Nebraska political scene. Hagel's decision - whether or not to run for re-election, whether to run for President - is going to impact the U.S. Senate race, possibly the race for our Congressional seat, all the way down to the Omaha city elections in 2009. But it seems that Hagel's starting to mobilize. He's running for something - the only question is what he's running for.

UPDATE (3:53 PM CST) by DaveSund: The New York Times reports that Hagel will hold a press conference Monday to "discuss his future plans."

UPDATE (4:42 PM CST) by DaveSund: The press conference will be on Monday at 10 a.m. at UNO's campus, according to the AP.

Race Tracker: NE-Sen

DaveSund :: (UPDATED) NE-Sen, Pres: Hagel To Announce Plans On Monday
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Expletive!
Oh, expletive!  Hagel might be the EXACT candidate the Repubs want-- able to appeal to the middle while legislating to the right, minus the war issue.  He is everything McCain was, up until McCain's harebrained scheme for a troop surge.  He's handsome, articulate, has gravitas without seeming overly stiff . . . he could be our worst nightmare.

Great, just as I was starting to get my hopes up for '08 . . .


You would think so...
But they've bought this war, and still have a very high opinion of Bush. They tend to view Hagel in the same light that we view Lieberman. Inside Nebraska, he has a great deal of institutional support in the Republican Party, and would have a relatively easy time getting renominated and reelected. But even Nebraska Republicans don't have a high opinion of him as a presidential candidate, and outside of Nebraska, it's even worse.

He might very well be their strongest candidate. But he doesn't stand a chance of winning the nomination. They hate Hagel, right now. 


[ Parent ]
But do they hate him . . .
. . . more than they hate McCain, Giuliani, or Romney?  Remember, the bible-thumpers are a HUGE part of the Republicans' early nominating process (such that South Carolina is make-or-break for the GOP).  And all three of the current frontrunners garner reactions ranging from discontent to outright hate from that wing of the party.  Hagel actually has a solid right-leaning record on social issues-- much more so than any of the current top three-- so he can appeal to SC primary voters who might not be so keen on the others.  And, he gives off the appearance of being a principled moderate, which appeals to the swing voters.  I don't know how tied he is to big business, but if he has a relatively friendly relationship with Wall Street, watch out-- he's their dream candidate, and we've got our work cut out for us.

[ Parent ]
I think you underestimate...
Just how much importance the war holds for them. The only reason they're even giving Giuliani the time of day is their fixation on 9/11.

There is a large portion of the Republican electorate that loves Bush - and Hagel's unforgivable sin in their eyes is that he's criticized Bush. He even went so far as to use the "I" word in esquire this week.


[ Parent ]
A huge percentage???
You mean there's actually a big enough percentage of primary voters who still love Bush?  I find that hard to believe.  Members of the Republican party have been running away from Bush ever since Katrina.  Bush's appearance on the campaign trail was a liability last year.  Sure, there may be some diehards out there who still think the world of him, but for the most part, he is disliked.  Therefore, Hagel's independence on the war issue is not as much of a liability as you claim.

[ Parent ]
Yes...
Matter of fact, the polling numbers bear that out. Though Bush has low approval numbers overall among the total electorate, he still enjoys relatively high approval among Republicans. (65% in the last NYT poll). And I'd guess that the vast majority of the Republican primary voters are going to come from the pro-Bush camp.

[ Parent ]
I've grown convinced
That the Lieberman analogy is exactly right. Hagel is the candidate who many Dems think would be best for the GOP, just like many Republicans were sure that Lieberman was our best candidate.

But their party faithful hate Chuck for the same reason we hate Joe: He's perceived as being disloyal, and too willing to criticize fellow Republicans. And (pace St. Ronnie) that's a far worse sin in their party than it is in ours.

What's more, in the same way that Lieberman's DLC politics appeal to no one outside the Beltway commentariat, I think Hagel's actual politics are screamingly far to the right, despite whatever moderate face he might put on about the war. So I think that one allegedly popular position (on the war) is obscuring a whole host of unpopular ones.


[ Parent ]
Hagel wil benefit from his position on the war
By 2008 the damage to the US Army from Iraq will be obvious to everyone, even brain dead Repub primary voters. Young noncoms and officers expected to be the backbone of the Army for the next 15 years are getting out ASAP.

The Iraqi government won't be giving any solace to war supporters. Iraqis hate us (who can blame them?) and their politicians will reflect that view.

I may be wrong but I think Hagel knows anybody who supports the current policy has no chance in either party next year. That's how bad this is going to get folks. 


[ Parent ]
I don't think Hagel has a prayer
The 30% of Americans who still support the war are 90% of the GOP primary electorate. They will vote pro-war over social issues without flinching, as is clearly visible on RedState and LGF. All of the (serious) announced GOP candidates so far are pro-war, so it is not an issue of contention yet, hence the focus on Rudy's social positions. The entrance of anti-war Hagel will only galvanize the support behind Hizzoner, IMO.

Trueblue
The latest poll showed that Republicans supported the war by a 63/33 clip. If he can get 35% of the vote I think Hagel can pull it off.

Repercussions
Hagel's decision - whether or not to run for re-election, whether to run for President - is going to impact the U.S. Senate race, possibly the race for our Congressional seat, all the way down to the Omaha city elections in 2009.

Don't just tease us with this! Name some names!


It's all rumors and speculation for now...
But the dominoes will fall into place if Hagel decides not to run for reelection.

Mike Fahey, mayor of Omaha, has been approached by Schumer and Reid about a run. Sounds like he's interested. Obviously, if he runs for Senate, he won't be running for Mayor again in 2009. So that's the impact on the city elections.

Lee Terry, the Congressman here in the 2nd District, has given cryptic quotes to the World-Herald on more than one occasion saying that "we're waiting with baited breath" for Hagel's decision. He's long been a rumored candidate for Senate in 2008. If he runs, a race that is at worst a second-tier pickup opportunity in 2008 becomes a highly competitive open seat.


[ Parent ]
Fahey
Okay, this is not really the most important of questions, but do you pronounce his name "fay-hee" or "fuh-hay"?  Just curious, lol.

[ Parent ]
Fay-hee
No problem. It is a little easier to pronounce than "Kleeb." I had to be corrected a couple of times on that one.

[ Parent ]
I'll try and put something up...
If/when Hagel announces he's not running for reelection. Of the elected Republicans in the state, the only ones I can definitively say won't be affected by this decision are Adrian Smith and Dave Heineman.

[ Parent ]
Term limits
In 1996, Hagel promised to only serve for 2 terms in the Senate, according to Hotline sources.


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