FL-21: Diaz-Balart Leads Martinez by 5

by: James L.

Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 1:48 AM EDT

Raul Martinez (D): 43
Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-inc): 48
Undecided: 9
(MoE: ±5.7%)

One thing from the crosstabs doesn't jive: Diaz-Balart is leading Martinez by 48-44 among men, but apparently Martinez has a 49-43 lead among women. It makes no sense at all for Diaz-Balart to have a five point lead with a breakdown like that, so I think it's reasonable to conclude that Telemundo51 must have accidentally flipped the female numbers between the two candidates.

The ethnic split also pretty much tells the story: Cuban-Americans favor Diaz-Balart by 61-30 while non-Cuban Hispanics give Martinez a 53-37 edge. Whites and African-Americans favor Martinez by 47-39.

This is shaping up to be a close one.