This is great in so many ways

Obama and Hagan could provide coattails for all sorts of down-ticket Dems.

Besides NC-8, I wonder if this puts any of our other Congressional races in serious play.  It would be great to see some new polling on our various GOP incumbents, especially NC-10, NC-8, and NC-5.  

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by: bear83 @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 15:26:58 PM CDT

Hard to say

Obama is a huge help in NC-08, and I think he would be in NC-05.  Hopefully Roy Carter can get the necessary cash or ground game together to get some movement.

I'm not sure if the Presidential hurts or helps in NC-10, but Daniel Johnson has enough money to get some movement started in the final few weeks.

New polls would be a huge help there.

"Keep the Faith"

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by: blue south @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 15:39:42 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Being nice

Because I'm such a nice guy, I won't be saying "I told you so" until November 5.  :-)

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by: LanceS @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 15:31:43 PM CDT

"Road Kill" seems apt

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by: andgarden @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 15:31:53 PM CDT

I would

like to know about the statewide races in NC other than the Senate and the Gov.

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by: fai calif @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 15:36:02 PM CDT

PPP

PPP has been polling them.  Click on their link and go through their archives.  Its been about once a month or so they poll them all.

We are tied for Labor Commissioner, Down for Ag Commiss, and up for everything else I think.

"Keep the Faith"

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by: blue south @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 15:38:29 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Dole's got some problems

That simply won't go away.  Kay Hagan will make a solid US Senator.

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by: Tarheeman1993 @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 16:42:27 PM CDT

She'll be good. Blanche Lincoln, more or less.

Although for her first few years, she might be Claire McCaskill, who seems to have a more conservative record than Lincoln does right now.

Point is, she'll be well to the left of Mark Pryor, Mary Landrieu, and Bill Nelson.

==========

Mark Pryor, Blanche Lincoln, Mary Landrieu, Bill Nelson, Jim Webb, plus Mark Warner, Kay Hagan, and maybe Jim Martin, Ronnie Musgrove, and/or Bruce Lunsford.  Ok, nevermind.  I was noticing how many women are in the Southern Democrat caucus, but it's not more than half yet.  Although if you add Claire McCaskill and assume Martin Musgrove and Lunsford lose, it would be 50-50.  

I bet Crit Luallen is kicking herself right now.

Also, note that we might DOUBLE the size of the Southern Democrat caucus (from 5 to 10) in one month's time.  That's hot.

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by: texas dem @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 19:28:05 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Heck, even Chandler

I'm sure even Ben Chandler is kicking himself by now.  He decided to stay out and wait until 2010 to run, probably thinking he'd have an easier ride against Bunning or an open seat.  Now it's looking like he may have been better off running this year.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 20:23:31 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I agree with you about Luallen

I remember why she opted not to run, because she just came off a re-election. Yeah it must of been tough running againist a guy who was a ex-UPS worker. Moron.

Anyhoo great news for Kay, now if we can get out numbers up in NC-GOV that would be great, but it's looking like everyday that Pat McCrory will be the state's next Governor.

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by: bradley minoski @ Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 02:15:20 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

..

I don't think the caliber of opponent in the previous race was a factor for Luallen, I think the fact that she had only been in the job she was elected to do just a few months prior was a concern.  And that could also have been an issue for McConnell to exploit, as well.  Chandler, however, should've jumped in, but I think he'd been planning on 2010 for a while.  Sure, both of them would've been much stronger candidates, but they also would've needed loads and loads of DSCC assistance.

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by: Anesthetic @ Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 09:13:56 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Well maybe in 2010 well have

TWO Democratic Senators from Kentucky, Bruce Lunsford AND Ben Chandler!

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 13:46:59 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Wow.

   How would have guessed that our Black presidential nominee and our Senate challenger would have to drag our gubernatorial nominee to victory in NORTH CAROLINA?!  Crazy stuff.

John McCain lets lobbyists shape his economic policy

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by: cilerder86 @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 17:52:14 PM CDT

Seriously

The conventional wisdom a year ago said seemed to be that we'd hold the Governorship with ease and lose the Presidential and Senate races in NC.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 18:21:20 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Along the same lines ...

... I never thought I'd see the day where here in Indiana we'd be on the verge of carrying the state on the Presidential level, but need a miracle to win the Gov. race.  Before 2004, we had won four gov races in a row, and not come close with the Pres. candidate.

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by: IndianaProgressive @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 18:26:04 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Remember back in the primaries?

Obama was supposed to have a problem getting white people to vote for him?  Turns out our white candidates have more of a problem getting other whites to vote for them.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 18:32:48 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Mmmm

I might be tempted to move this above Alaska very soon.

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by: conspiracy @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 17:53:12 PM CDT

In the words of Kathy Griffin

holy shit balls.

My jaw literally dropped and I realized I was at work (library) and that a patron was coming over to check a book out so I almost looked like a weirdo who seems to have a mouth that doesnt stay closed...

She's done.  My new number 5, North Carolina, the new Alaska.

Holy crap....  I dont see how an incumbent can come back from this without a game changer.

How sad is it for the Republican party that on election day, they are already expected to lose 6 seats right off the bat.

That 9 seat pick-up is looking pretty achievable again...

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by: Andrew @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 17:59:45 PM CDT

I'm gonna have to move up Georgia as well pretty soon

maybe something like Virginia, New Mexico, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Colorado, Alaska, Oregon, Minnesota, Georgia, Mississippi special, Kentucky.

Remember we need +11 to get solid 60.  +10 to get 60 including Sanders.  +9 to get 60 including Lieberman as well.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 18:42:22 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Please let give some republicans/conservative web site links

No schadenfreude. Just want to know what they are thinking.

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by: fai calif @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 18:14:15 PM CDT

I torture myself ...

... and read Redstate from time to time (not really sure why, as I'm not otherwise into self-abuse!), and most of them still think they are going to win.  Either they believe it, or are putting up that front.  Their standard argument seems to be that: 1) The polls are all part of a media conspiracy to elect Obama, and 2) If McCain is not doing well enough, it's because he and the whole GOP establishment hasn't run a negative enough campaign.

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by: IndianaProgressive @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 18:21:25 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Also Rush Limbaugh

I listened to a little of Limbaugh today at lunch for a chuckle and he went on and on about how amazing Palin and McCain were at their debates and how the "drive-by media" (whatever that means) is out to get McCain, who in his mind is going to win big in November.  I don't think he actually believes that BS, but I'm sure his mindless mass of listeners do.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 18:25:05 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Oh please! Limbaugh is salivating at the thought of Obama being elected.

It took Bill Clinton and Troopergate and Travelgate and Vince Foster and Hillary and Monica to make him the ratings juggernaut that he is. He needs an enemy in order to thrive.

Obama is way more liberal than Clinton and he's black. Add to that an expanded Democratic Congress with a Speaker from San Francisco of all places plus several Supreme Court nominations certain to happen within the next year or two. I mean, just think of the possibilities for him!

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by: Tyler Oakley @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 18:35:45 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

And also

Limbaugh is probably secretly thrilled at the thought that an Obama Presidency may make drug laws more lenient.  

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 18:40:03 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I guess the question is whether

we should wait for this turd to self-destruct.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 18:47:03 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

LOL. With an Obama presidency, everyone wins!

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by: Tyler Oakley @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 18:47:52 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

The MN one I read

is Minnesota Democrats Exposed.  While the blog is solely to "expose democrats" and is essentially a negative tv ad in blog form, oh man, I love going on there and heckling them.  I make sure to point as much as possible that they are going to get their butts kicked this election and it's all their own fault.  Plus, it's good to know what will be in the paper a few days from now.

When the whole change and reform crap came out I was like, wait are they are for real?  This is why Republicans suck as leaders, they are so dillusional that they will accept whatever someone tells them as long as it sounds pretty and has a bow on top.  Case in point why McCain shouldn't be president, "the fundamentals of this economy are strong".  Dillusional.

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by: Andrew @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 20:03:19 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Nothing beats a classic like Free Republic

Whenever someone posts a poll unfavorable to Republicans (which nowadays seems to be every poll), these are the standard responses:

1) Resignation to the inevitability of defeat
2) Attacking the credibility of the poll/pollster
3) Attacking the diarist for being a troll

For presidential polls, half the people console themselves with "It's ok, Bradley effect will take care of us!"

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by: unertl @ Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 00:09:25 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Leave it to the Republicans...

"It's okay, everyone... we've got RACISM on our side!!!" (cue celebratory cheers and raucus applause)

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by: tommyiaf @ Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 00:25:17 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

If I were them...

I'd be afraid of a reverse-Bradley Effect.  Most of these polls seem to have McCain and other Republicans winning around 10-15% of the AA vote.  Does anyone really think he'll get that much?  I don't

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 13:17:40 PM CDT

[ Parent ]