my aching head

someone needs to come clean up the skull fragments and brain pieces in this room,   my head just exploded.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

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by: skywrnchsr509 @ Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 01:19:50 AM CDT

Beat me to it

By a few minutes. Here's some of what I was gonna say:

Interestingly, this poll finds that Barkley is shaving off more points from Coleman than he does from Franken: 49% of his supporters would lean towards Coleman in a two-way race, while only 33% would lean toward Franken. A two-way race would still give Franken a 49-42 lead. This is a bit surprising, given some assumptions made of Barkley helping to fracture the anti-incumbent vote.

These polls certainly are making this race extremely tough to get a good pulse on, so the best thing to look at right now is still the Pollster composite. However, they all confirm that Barkley is gobbling up a significant share of the vote -- who that ultimately benefits is the real wild card.

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by: James L. @ Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 01:24:58 AM CDT

Wow

This race is getting strange by the minute. The only thing we can really peg down is Dean Barkley is polling in the tens. Beyond that, it's anyone's ballgame on who's leading this race.

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by: bradley minoski @ Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 02:20:03 AM CDT

What the frack.

Why can't pollsters get a decent grasp of this race?  I mean, it's not like this is the first time in the history of America that we've had a strong 3rd party candidate in the race.  They're are going to outliers, sure, if several different supposedly reliable pollsters are showing these wild of fluctuations in such a short span of time, they're just not doing their jobs.

As mentioned above, the Pollster.com average might be the only halfway decent measure of the race, which at the moment says that Coleman has a 3.5-point lead, but is barely cracking 40%, which seems reasonable (although I think that's without this most recent poll).

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by: Nico @ Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 02:26:37 AM CDT

The SurveyUSA poll was f*#^ed up!

No way McCain is ahead in MN! I believe the other two polls are right, and Franken is really ahead.

Coleman is unpopular and Franken has had a good run lately. And the economy is working for him. I think Franken would have won with a high single digit if the election was today.

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by: Ectoras @ Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 05:31:47 AM CDT

Perhaps...

I guess we really don't know for sure with all these poll numbers all over the place. I just couldn't believe those f**ked up SUSA numbers.

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats

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by: atdleft @ Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 12:16:30 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Agree

It was obvious that the SUSA poll was off.  How could Obama be losing lots of support in Minnesota while picking up signficant support nationally?

The question to me is whether this poll is equally off.  It will be interesting to see what their numbers for Obama are.  If Obama is up by what I'd expect (high single digits or low double digits), then I would give Franken's lead more credence.  If Obama is up by high double digits, then I'd think Franken's lead is overestimated.

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by: sicembears @ Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 18:43:53 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Obama's Numbers

Presidential numbers are now out for this poll and they have Obama +18!  It definitely seems like an overly favorable sample to me and Franken's numers are inflated.

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by: sicembears @ Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 01:47:32 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Three-way races

These are not at all unusual in Minnesota, and it's not just the election of Ventura.  Pawlenty has been elected twice, despite never getting near 50%, because of the votes won by a third party.

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by: Vadranor @ Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 20:29:30 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

If Barkley wins ...

with whom does he caucus?  Does anyone from MN have an idea?

Not that I want him to, I greatly prefer Franken.  But is it possible that a Coleman loss helps us no matter who beats him?  I really don't have any feel for Barkley's politics.

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by: LanceS @ Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 08:46:04 AM CDT

more than likely the Dem's

My guess is that he'd VOTE more with the dems, but would caucus with no one.  He wouldn't vote for Reid OR McConnell (if he's still around).

Admittedly, I was a Ciresi backer for the DLF nomination, but there was a point many months ago that I thought the DFL should through their support behind Barkley.

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by: ChuckInSeattle @ Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 10:41:25 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Wouldn't he need to caucus

to get committee seats?

I was under the impression that the Independence Party was a smidge to the left, so I guess he'd probably go for Reid, unless of course I'm mistaken and he can still get on committees without caucusing, then maybe he'd opt out.

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by: Nico @ Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 11:20:25 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Past Performance of Star Tribune polls

I love looking at these numbers like everyone else, but I have to caution people about putting too much faith into Star Tribune polling.  In 2004, just days before the election, the Star Tribune pegged the presidential race at 49-41 in Kerry's favor-- a margin that would go on to shrink to 51.09-47.61.  There are more examples than this, the AG, SOS and Governor races in 2006 all saw overly optimistic polling from the Strib.  

I think they might be using a different firm than they used in 2004 but just be warned that Star Tribune polls have a history of inflating numbers for Democrats.  

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by: dtrinh @ Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 10:33:09 AM CDT

True...

But can we REALLY believe that SUSA poll showing McCain +1 and Coleman +10? Most likely, the real state of the race is somewhere in between.

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats

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by: atdleft @ Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 12:08:07 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Changed Ownership?

I read somewhere else that the Star Tribune had changed ownership and had lots of turnover in editors.  If so, this might throw off comparisons to their lean in 2004.  Maybe someone from Minnesota has the inside info?

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by: sicembears @ Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 18:39:35 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Like I said in the

Diary about this poll, let's split the difference and call this race a tie.

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by: safi @ Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 13:39:24 PM CDT

That's basically where it is.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 22:02:22 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

lol

oh god....  The one race that is like the marquee race for everyone in the country due to Franken is just impossible to follow.

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by: Andrew @ Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 14:11:08 PM CDT

Obama up 18 in Strib poll

http://www.startribune.com/pol...

Obama 55
McCain 37

Would be great but I don't believe it for a second. Obama up? Definantly. Up comfortably? Sure. Up 18? No way. IMO this throws the results of yesterday's Star Tribune Minnesota Senate poll into doubt.

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by: MinnesotaMike @ Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 00:22:42 AM CDT

The SUSA

Poll had McCain up 1. I say let's split the difference on both sides and say the MN-SEN race is a tie and Obama has a 7-8 point lead in Minnesota.

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by: safi @ Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 01:56:03 AM CDT

[ Parent ]