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FL-18: Ros-Lehtinen Leading Taddeo in New Poll

by: DavidNYC

Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 9:22 PM EDT


Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/23-25, likely voters, no trendlines):

Annette Taddeo (D): 36
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-inc): 53
Undecided: 10
(MoE: 5%)

Difficult numbers for Taddeo, but the only other public poll (by Bendixen & Associates) showed her 27 points back in July, so this is certainly a good bit better. As is often the case with first-time candidates who haven't yet hit the airwaves, Taddeo is still unknown by a sizable chunk of the populace (30%), so she has room to grow. (And the good news is that she just went up on the air a few days ago, with both English and Spanish TV and radio ads.) Ros-Lehtinen, meanwhile, has only a so-so 49-37 approval rating.

The biggest question mark about this poll is the sample. It's 62% white and 31% Hispanic. While census data is often quite different from voter turnout data, this district is just 28% Anglo (ie, non-Hispanic whites). It's possible that some Hispanics (especially Cubans, I'm told) do indeed self-identify as white, so that might be part of the explanation.

This is actually a rather thorny issue in a district like this. A knowledgeable source tells me that a more likely turnout model would be 52% Hispanic and 40% white - and that it's also crucial for pollsters to filter respondents on a more fine-grained level. That's because Cuban vs. non-Cuban Hispanics have very different voting patterns in South Florida (the former are far more pro-GOP). The proper way to go about this is to ask the people you call about their (or their ancestors') country of origin, and it's not clear whether R2K did this.

Regardless, Hispanic and white performance in this poll was pretty similar. Annette Taddeo definitely has her work cut out for her. But remember - R2K did a poll almost exactly two years ago which showed Paul Hodes down by 25 points, so this race is definitely far from over.

DavidNYC :: FL-18: Ros-Lehtinen Leading Taddeo in New Poll
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I hate it how on DKos people look at this poll and say,
"Why isn't DWS doing more here?"

It's like, c'mon.  Are you kidding me?  


Are YOU kidding ME?
You make yourself sound like such a hard-nosed realist. Yet you would have written off Paul Hodes, too.

[ Parent ]
(BIG WORD) little words (BIG WORD)
Cubanos in South Florida identify as white folk?  The hell?  Or is that common?

[ Parent ]
Markos,
Whose wife is Cuban, told me that this is not uncommon. Also remember on the census, "Hispanic" is not a racial choice - you have to pick another race (typically white or black) in addition to listing Hispanic, so it's not that much of a stretch.

[ Parent ]
One thing I've noticed
while poring over Census data is that many Hispanics deal with the race question by picking "Some Other" as their race. The vast majority of people choosing "Some Other" for their race also check the Hispanic box.

Interestingly, there's a lot of variation on this depending on national origin, though. On the whole, it looks like around half of Hispanics pick "white" and half pick "Some Other," but in California, where most Hispanics are Mexican, a small majority seem to pick "Some Other," while especially in Florida (where Cubans predominate) and also in the northeast (where Puerto Ricans predominate) the large majority identify as "White." So the Census would tend to bear this out, too.


[ Parent ]
Exactly ...
If you look at census bureau data, categories typically are black, asian, non-Hispanic white, and "Of Hispanic Origin" (which may be of any race).  Many Puerto Ricans identify as being Hispanic and black, many South Americans (espcially Argentinians and Chileans) identify as being Hispanic and white.


[ Parent ]
A lot of Cubans in Florida ARE white...
...particularly since a lot of the initial wave of refugees were white middle and upper class supporters of Batista.  Also like other Latin American nations there has been a large demographic shift in Cuba where now the island is now overwelmingly black.  Hence why those old guys in Miami who THINK they'll be relevant once the Castro regime falls are sadly mistaken.

Newer Cubans like the ones who cam over in the late 70s are more likely to be black or mixed race.

Race is a tricky thing and it's definition changes from Latin American nation to Latin American nation.  And many Latin American nations like the United States have seen their racial demographics shifting.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...


[ Parent ]
FL-08, FL-13, FL-21, FL-24, FL-25
Please send DWS to FL-18 so we can avoid picking up seats we should pick up, and get close in a district that isn't even on the political radar because the incumbent is popular and our candidate got a late start?

She's a member of the US House of representatives.  Now, I'm not a stalker, so I don't know how much time a week that consumes, but between that and maintaining a presence in her district, having her position in the DCCC, and already lending out a hand for three other US House candidates, I'm pretty sure she's got her hands pretty full.  Again, maybe that's just me.  Personally, I like to eat, sleep, save some time to shower once a day.  Hygene is good.  I don't know what all you expect out of your congresspeople.  Hell, FL-18 even made the R2B list stamp of approval probably /w the help of DWS even though it looks to be a pretty doomed campaign.  


[ Parent ]
Sidenote, since I know someone's going to bring it up
I think the 50 state strategy is great, but the time for that is over, and the realism has to kick in sometime.  Polling.  Where do we need the money to win.  I'm guessing a +20 defecit /w an incumbent with strong approvals would cost at least 3 million dollars, and ranks below about 50 other races.  

[ Parent ]
We need to start cutting some races loose
I'm going to make people angry right now and say that the blogosphere is doing a lot of readers a disservice by stil urging contributions to candidates like Andrew Rice and Rick Noriega arguing that these are winnable. We're at crunch time and some races have to be cut loose. Taddeo and Jennings may be on the last. Perhaps better to give to Kosmos, Garcia and Grayson.  

Based on?
There hasn't been a poll in the Texas Senate race in over a month and the only one before that was 2 months ago. A lot has changed since mid-August so there's nothing to base that on other than you haven't hear much from Texas. Between an economic hit, a Hurricane, and everything else going on today is nothing like 2 months ago.

[ Parent ]
Wrong.
   There are so many prognosticators on this site who think they have about 100 IQ points more than those dreamers at DKos and Open Left.  It seems some people could stand to swallow down some crow.  I'll help: http://www.swingstateproject.c...
It's a thread devoted to downplaying Alan Grayson's chances.  Those crazy Open Lefters!  Suddenly we should be devoting all our resources to the Grayson campaign, because oops...he has a great chance to win.

24, Male, GA-05

Good for Alan Grayson.
He obviously learned a lot of hard but useful lessons from his ill-fated primary run in 2006. But let me ask you this: Should we be devoting resources to his campaign? Just look at his fundraising -- he hasn't shown much interest in actually collecting checks. He seems pretty content to write his own.

Many candidates don't have the luxury of being as wealthy as Grayson. It seems to me that grassroots dollars are better spent on candidates who can't afford to tap into their own bank account. But hey, that's just my opinion.

Look, I think the attitude of some folks who want to write off certain House races is pretty wrongheaded. It's the same kind of attitude that would have dismissed Paul Hodes in 2006 because a UNH poll showed him trailing Bass badly and Hodes already lost this race badly once before. It's the same kind of attitude that would have said "why bother?" back in March when we started eyeing up Travis Childers as a possible upset special, just because the district is R+10. I don't think it's time to "cut House races loose" (whatever the hell that means) -- it's time to try harder than ever.


[ Parent ]
OK.
  You're right.  I'm not giving money to Grayson because, as you pointed out, he's independently wealthy.  I didn't donate to Bill Foster for the same reason.  I just think it's funny when Kossacks and Open Lefters are mocked for supporting supposedly doomed candidates, only to find out that they were right after all.  Part of the reason those blogs support longshot candidates is that the DCCC supports the candidates in the obvious races.  I mean, what's the point of giving money to an already well-funded candidate when the DCCC is also spending millions on his or her behalf?

24, Male, GA-05

[ Parent ]
the point?
I'd have to say the point is that well funded candidates who get millions spent on their behalf by the DCCC can still lose.  Just ask Tammy Duckworth.  

I agree with an above poster, we need to start cutting some races lose.  I believe Taddeo is now one of those races. People like Rice, Kleeb, and Noriega are probably on that list too though some polling data would be nice to confirm that. Taddeo is a great candidate, support her the whole way, hope she pulls off a miracle upset, but I don't see it with this polling defecit on a candidate with good approvals.  Lets see if we can get her to run again in 2010 and she can do what Kissell did this year and just keep right on running.  Maybe the netroots can raise a few hundread thousand for her over the next year to put her in an even better position for 2010.  A lot of candidates do it this way,  its how boyda and McNerney got in.  Look at Massa and Maffei.  Both solid candidates that didn't have the recognition to win last time and are primed to win this time.  

I think what needs to happen immediately after this election takes place, is that candidates who ran well and are good candidates ( people like Taddeo Segall and Shulman) assuming they lose, and get them back for 2010.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions


[ Parent ]
Sheesh, relax
There were plenty of reasons for underestimating Grayson's campaign.  He had very little institutional support from Central FL dems and most of his money spent was from his own pocket.  I freely admit that I severly underestimated Grayson.  I'm 100% behind him now that he's our nominee, as most on this site probably are by now.

[ Parent ]

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