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OR-Sen: New SUSA Poll

by: DavidNYC

Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 12:38 AM EDT


SurveyUSA for Roll Call & KATU-TV (9/22-23, likely voters, 8/2-4 in parens):

Jeff Merkley (D): 44 (37)
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 42 (49)
Dave Brownlow (C): 8 (7)
Undecided: 6
(MoE: ±3.8%)

That's a sharp drop for Smith, and it confirms all the recent polling we've seen here. Interestingly, both candidates have weak approvals: 31-42 for Smith and 30-35 for Merkley. But Merkley leads independents 45-36 and is benefitting from a top-of-the-ticket surge. Obama now beats McCain 52-41. (He led just 48-45 early last month.)

SSP currently rates this race Tossup.

DavidNYC :: OR-Sen: New SUSA Poll
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Small lead already...
Shudder to think where we'll be sitting on election day.  I can't wait for November.  

Awesome, just awesome, although I wonder about the numbers
for the Constitution candidate. Perhaps that's where all of the disaffected Republicans are going because Smith has been pissing all over them, but they could still possibly swing back to him.  

I'd guess there are a lot of younger voters trying to defy the two party system
with a protest vote on the D side.  Smith's ads haven't been positive, and there was a hotly contested primary.  I'd assume there are people in your category than the one I defined though.  I'm just saying I don't think it would be such a big benefit for Smith.  

[ Parent ]
Perhaps, but it's the Constitution party getting the support, not the
myriad of left-wing parties that'll be on the ballot, like Pacific Green, Working Family, or whatnot.

Heck, there's even a brand spanking new Peace party that Nader will be running on, though I don't think they have a Senatorial candidate.

For me, the fact that it's the conservative Constitution party with the high numbers means that these are Republicans.

Knowing how they framed the question (was it just these 3 candidates, or were the other parties included too) would help clarify it.


[ Parent ]
Ballot access
for these nutty 3rd parties must be easy there.

The Libertarians are the only 3rd party on the ballot in NC this year, and they had to gather over 100,000 signatures just to get on the ballot.

I'm not sure which way is best, but all those extra fringe candidates do make the ballot longer and more complicated.


[ Parent ]

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