Harstad Strategic Research for Walt Minnick (9/9-11, likely voters):
Walt Minnick (D): 43
Bill Sali (R-inc): 38
These numbers paint a dramatically different picture of the race than a recent Research 2000 poll conducted for Daily Kos that showed Sali leading by 46-35. In that survey, Minnick had suspiciously high unfavorable numbers (41% favorable, 40% unfavorable), which is hard to explain given that Minnick has been airing nothing but unanswered positive bio ads for the past two months. In Minnick's poll, his favorables are at 39% and his unfavorables are at 12% -- I find this spread much more believable than R2K's poll.
The poll has some more good news: Bill Sali's favorables are pretty low (36-37) and his job approval is even worse (28-52). The cherry on top: only 22% of voters say that they're going vote to re-elect Sali, while 26% say they'll consider someone else, and 33% are definitely voting for someone else. A good base of anti-Sali and persuadable voters there.
The full polling memo is available below the fold.