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LA-06: Cazayoux Leads by 16 in New Poll (Updated)

by: James L.

Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 3:31 PM EDT

Anzalone Liszt for Don Cazayoux (9/17-21, likely voters, July in parens):

Don Cazayoux (D-inc): 48 (43)
Bill Cassidy (R): 32 (36)
Michael Jackson (I): 9 (13)
Undecided: 11
(MoE: ±4.4%)

Those are some nice starting numbers for Cazayoux. Hopefully he can minimize Jackson's impact, but it looks like he's beginning the campaign with some breathing room.

We'll post the full polling memo when we get it -- which should be very soon. Oh, and while we're at it, here's Don Cazayoux's latest ad.

UPDATE: Full polling memo below the fold, and it contains some more good news. Constituents are giving Cazayoux solid ratings for his work during Hurricane Gustav and its aftermath.

James L. :: LA-06: Cazayoux Leads by 16 in New Poll (Updated)
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This is good news
Especially after seeing that Republican poll showing Paul Hodes only up 43%-39% in NH-02.  

Oh wow
MJ only getting 9% is good; I assume by election day he'll only get around 3-5%; most 3rd party candidates poll higher. Good news is that Cazayoux lead is big enough that he doesn't need to win ANY of the undecideds to win.  

Louisiana voters like their incumbents
I am actually not surprised by this poll.  

Great Result
Great result for Cazayoux, expecially as Jackson should fade as the election nears.  I always take these campaign polls with a large grain of salt, however.  Hopefully, independent polling confirms.

BTW, what is the deal with Jackson?  What does he gain by running other than the enmity of all Cazayoux supporters?

mebbe Bobby Jindal made him an offer
he couldn't refuse. Who knows.

[ Parent ]
well personally,
since no incumbent anything has lost an election in like one hundred years, I though Cazayoux had that going for him. Gov. Treen was like the last major incumbent to lose something, and he lost to Edwin Edwards, I mean, come on, in Lousiana they might as well have put God on the ballot, it would have been the only way to find some one more liked. No senator or representative to my knowledge has lost reelection since like the 1890s, Buddy Roemer, but he lost his primary becuase he was a miserable politician. I'm glad to see my hopes confirmed to a degree in this poll, mainly that Jenkins huge name recognition powerful loyalty from evangelicals and popularity among upper class white votes actually made him a stronger candidate than a brand new, unknown state senator. Most of these voters don't know Cassidy, he doesn't have their loyalty, and he's not fundraising well. Many are considering going ahead and going for Cazayoux. This and LA-04 are probably going to be the only districts in Louisiana that Obama gains significant ground over Kerry in. I've been getting good reports from downsouth, so far so good.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

How is LA-07 coming?
I'd like to see an electoral defeat of one extra Republican come this november!  Go Cravins!

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
LA-07 is not coming at all
I was down there recently and saw no campaign signs for either side. Most people, nine out of ten, (and this was among people I knew to be actual voters and somewhat better informed than the general populace), didn't know Cravins was running, some thought he'd dropped out. At least that was my experience. They've bothbeen running invisible campaigns, and that always has to strongly favor the incumbent, who people will go with just because they know his name while his opponent's name they do not.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
and hurricanes
do have a way of helping out vulnerable politicians, just ask Gov. Barbor, or Rep. Melancon.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

Didn't seem to work so well
for Kathleen Blanco.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
she didn't look good though
you have to look good before, during, and after. You have to be composed, look and speak competently, and get good planning through while hitting the ground running in relief and rebuilding programs. Blanco looked flustered, unprepared, unintelligable, she earned the rancor of millions and the nickname Blank-o, then afterwards she didn't hit the ground running in relief and new programs, didn't take center stage speaking intelligently and getting things done, or the very least giving the appearance of working hard to try to get things done. Blanco did none of this, so very predictably came out looking bad, and incompetent. Her previously stable 58% approval rating fell to the mid-twenties and never came close to fully recovering, partly because she did not have the kind of equally big success that can counteract that big a failure and regained her reputation with many. But if you will look good you earn the loyalty of many, if you are competent, people will not forget, which is why Landrieu is going to destroy Kennedy in South East Louisiana and end up winning 53, to 54 percent of the vote. It helped Melancon, and now it appears to be helping Cazayoux.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
This makes me feel good
Despite the fact that I don't like that he's a social conservative, I like Cazayoux and I'm glad we won that seat. He will be a great voice on economic concerns in the Democratic majority; on healthcare and on poverty. He's an important asset in a conservative red state.

I'm glad to see he's doing so well.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

Good to see Jackson isn't getting traction
I'm feeling much better about this race now.  I guess I should have known with LA - they love their incumbents.

It's starting to look like we're going to end up with a 4-3 dem delegation from LA this year.  How great would that be considering this is possibly the only state where the GOP is on the rise?

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