Don't want to get my hopes up too much on Florida

since we've been burned so much in the past. But those are very encouraging numbers for Grayson obviously, but also for Obama.

Would a tie in this district basically mean a win for Obama state-wide? Have the demographics changed that much in this area in the last 4 years? If so, are the pollsters not picking up this trend?

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by: adamterando @ Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 18:00:45 PM UTC

Not only

are there the changes in registration numbers that James included, but here's the demographic rundown:

2000
Total: 639,026
White: 447,266 (70%)
Black: 45,387 (7%)
Asian: 18,363 (3%)
Hispanic: 112,514 (18%)

2006
Total: 746,635
White: 472,230 (63%)
Black: 65,653 (9%)
Asian: 24,561 (3%)
Hispanic: 166,327 (22%)

Change
Total: +107,609
White: +24,964
Black: +20,266
Asian: +6,198
Hispanic: +53,813

And as James pointed out, the bulk of the new Hispanics in the Orlando area are Puerto Ricans, who are eligible to vote. If this district is tied and all districts' boats have risen equally, then, yes, we'd win Florida fairly easily (based on this district's 10-pt spread in 2004). However, since this district has seen a more favorable demographic shift for us than most other Florida districts, it's not that simple. But it's still certainly good.

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by: Crisitunity @ Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 18:50:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Just to be sure

Those 2000 numbers you posted are for the current configuration of the 8th district and not the pre-2002 version, correct?  I'm thinking they are correct, just making sure since the post-2002 district is more republican than the old one.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 18:54:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yep

110th Congress, 2000 census.

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by: Crisitunity @ Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 19:24:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Probably

Would a tie in this district basically mean a win for Obama state-wide?

More likely than not, yes he would.  I'd probably give Obama a 75-80% chance of winning statewide if he wins the 8th district.

Have the demographics changed that much in this area in the last 4 years? If so, are the pollsters not picking up this trend?  

Yes they have.  In metro Orlando area and surrounding counties almost all of the population boom is Hispanic and to a much lesser degree AA.  This is also the case in many other Central and South FL districts.  

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 19:02:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Very good numbers

I've got a lot of faith in the power of a quirky, well funded ad campaign. Grayson spent a lot of money and ran a lot of ads during the primary, powerful ads.

I think he can win this one.

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by: Populista @ Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 18:18:36 PM UTC

not surprising

Keller almost lost last year, winning 52-47 against Charlie Stuart who received no national help or attention, and, because of his expensive primary with Alan Grayson last year, was outspent overwhelmingly by Keller. I always expect this one to be close, along with FL-13.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 19:26:50 PM UTC

Goes to show you...

that gerrymandering can only take you so far. In 2001, Jeb's minions redrew this district into something resembling a check-mark to boost their margins. However, I think this poll bears out the fact that gerrymanders only last so long. The R's outsmarted themselves in PA and paid the price for it. I think FL could see something similar this year (maybe not as dramatic, but an end result closer to how the state breaks down).

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by: corran horn @ Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 20:03:24 PM UTC

Yup, the Florida 2001 map

is beginning to look like a dummymander  

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by: andgarden @ Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 20:30:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I hope so

The Florida map may well collapse this year as the PA map did in 2006.  Unfortunately the R's will still have full control over the Florida map in 2012, which is unlikely to be the case again in PA.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 20:45:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The advantage of that

is that they'll be forced to clean up their shit. As far as I can tell, there's really no way to further pack Democrats, so it's hard for me to see how they draw more Republican districts without endangering more of their own incumbents. One option is to ask Jeff Miller to take an early retirement and parcel his district out among several other Republicans.

If they lose a seat or two in the next few cycles, they'll probably decide to retaliate as the Dems did in Georgia in 1991. That's when the fun starts. . .

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by: andgarden @ Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 20:56:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

this is exciting

grayson's a candidate who more than any other this cycle i can think of would hold the bush administration's balls to the wall ... guy's been suing war profiteers, for fuck's sakes. and i didn't think he stood much of a chance because he seemed to initially fizzle on fundraising...   anybody have any recent numbers on him?   after this poll hope van hollen coughs something up...

It is difficult to get the news from poems, but men die miserably every day for lack of what is found there. --William Carlos Williams

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by: RichardPlatypus @ Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 20:50:57 PM UTC

Is he even trying to fundraise?

He looks like a self-funder to me.  I considered donating to him, but figured he has enough money of his own that he's willing to use, and that I ought to donate to a candidate that actually depends on donations.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

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by: texas dem @ Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 00:01:00 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I work in FL-08

From driving around all the time, there are more signs for Grayson than there are for Keller. I don't know the politics too well around here as I am from Michigan and my official IRS residence is in Fort Lauderdale, but there isn't as much GOP lopsidedness here as I expected from this area of Florida.

On a side note, I received a phone call from the Obama campaign saying they are opening a new South Orlando Office and invited me to the open house on Thursday night. I volunteered for help in the office and data entry type volunteering.  

KELL

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by: ryanlkelly @ Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 01:46:17 AM UTC

Yes, I work on the outskirts on the 8th district

As in many Florida districts getting all of these new Hispanics and to a lesser extend blacks registered and to the polls makes all the difference.  Hispanics may make up a soaring % of the residents in many of these swing districts in FL, but huge numbers aren't registered to vote.  Contrary to polular belief most of them ARE eligable and are not here illegals.  

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 02:55:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Grayson seems to be a crapshoot

He is going to be a huge success or a miserable failure.  Stuart was the safe pick to run in this district, Grayson the unorthodox outsider.  We all did under estimate Grayson's appeal in the primary, not sure how he'll play to voters in the general.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 02:58:49 AM UTC

Agreed

He's a risk but I think he's a risk that can win. I think someone so different will play well this year.

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by: Populista @ Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 05:38:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Matt Taibbi...

seems to respect Grayson, and has talked with him quite a bit on war profiteering.  I did a profile of Grayson back in July for the Bruin Dems blog.  Anyone that can gain Taibbi's respect is good in my book.

(Bernie Sanders is the other person Taibbi really respects.)

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by: BruinKid @ Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 14:48:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]