The trend is a friend!

But why no mention of the McCain number? Obama at 49 but...? I hope that doesn't mean they are hiding bad news.

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 22:06:35 PM UTC

High numbers

Those numbers seem a little high for Brownlow, but I suppose Gordon Smith could be getting flack from the far right for votes on embryonic stem cell research and stances on issues like assisted suicide.  I guess some people still want to control life and death situations.  The poll is great and if true is welcome news.

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2

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by: ModerateIADem @ Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 22:08:24 PM UTC

One other bit of good news

to consider is that the sample for this poll wrapped up by Sept. 9; Sept. 10 is the date that Willamette Week released its expose on Gordon Smith (Prince of Peas) hiring illegal aliens to work his eastern Oregon agricultural operations. I don't know if that'll move a lot of votes to the Democrats (although if it moves right-wing nativist votes to the Constitution Party, I'll take that, too), but it's gotta help somehow. If anything, it'll add more to his disapproval rating (and I don't think anyone recovers in two months from a 61% disapproval).

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by: Crisitunity @ Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 22:40:29 PM UTC

Add the option "None of the Above"

The Blank Vote Initiative encourages you not to reward politicians who are part of the Coalition of the Willing to Wait. We need regime change NOW in America. And it's time NOW to end the Occupation.

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by: EastbankThom @ Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 22:43:18 PM UTC

Begone, troll.

You show up here to advocate against Jeff Merkley whenever we write a post about Oregon's Senate race. You add absolutely nothing else to the conversation here. That's not cool.

Your account is now banned.

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by: James L. @ Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 22:49:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Awesome

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by: zac @ Fri Sep 12, 2008 at 01:57:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Double awesome! EBT has been making an ass/troll of himself

all over Oregon websites for a while now.

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by: verasoie @ Fri Sep 12, 2008 at 03:28:47 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good news

this race is a real tossup. The DSCC's anti-Smith ads have been VERY effective. I think we can win here.

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by: Populista @ Fri Sep 12, 2008 at 00:01:34 AM UTC

I agree

While some of the polls over the summer were troubling, I have to say we stand a better chance of beating Smith this year. It helps that we have a strong candidate (oh be quiet, trolls!), and that the DSCC is flush with cash. Neither of these were the case last time around.

Just out of curiosity, what were those ads like? I recall seeing a few linked here, but I've forgotten.

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by: corran horn @ Fri Sep 12, 2008 at 00:26:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

As previously noted

Smith's approval has absolutely collapsed about Ds and Indies.  With the 9% edge we now have in registration, that could be enough to give Merkley the win...

That being said, I'm waiting until Tim Hibbits (the gold standard for OR Polling) comes out with his poll.

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by: skywaker9 @ Fri Sep 12, 2008 at 00:57:57 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Brownlow will NOT get 6%

No way, no how, 2-3% at best...

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by: skywaker9 @ Fri Sep 12, 2008 at 00:56:27 AM UTC

Can I just say I love scribd

It is the anti-adobe, and I can't take it when adobe shuts down my entire computer to open a file.  

In terms of the race, this is great news.  I view this race as a real bellweather.  

Question, which race do people think is more winnable right now, OR or MN-SEN?  I think that's a tough call.  Both are strong GOP incumbents, and Merkley and Franken have their warts.  But on the flip side, they've remained competitive and Obama should win both states with ease.  Very tough to say.  I want to say Coleman because I dislike him a great deal more than Smith, but I think it is probably Smith because his repeatedly low favorable ratings are really stark.  

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by: Andy Dufresne @ Fri Sep 12, 2008 at 02:10:41 AM UTC

As a former MN'an and now live in the Pacific Northwest

Oregon is definitely more winnable!

Sadly, I don't know how Al Franken will play over with most of the "F" and "L" in the DFL (Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party).  I always thought the Mike Ciresi would be the Amy Klobuchar of 2008.  

My main reason for the answer is that MN has been drifting to the right.  And Oregon has been trending from the GOP hope on the West Coast has been drifting towards the left.  I don't see people in MN having a good enough reason to throw Coleman out and he's been running a good campaign.  We'll see what happens if he does have to pay millions more for TV ads.

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by: ChuckInSeattle @ Fri Sep 12, 2008 at 04:21:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

This is looking more and more like #6

I already have this as our #6 best pickup opportunity.  I said it awhile back and believe it now more than ever, Merkley may win this thing handily.  Smith's campaign reminds me of DeWine's in 2006.  He's trying so hard to appeal to democrats and independents that he's losing the support of his base.  Granted I don't think he can lose by 10+ as DeWine did, but a 5-8 point loss I can see happening.

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri Sep 12, 2008 at 02:39:52 AM UTC

agreed

Oregon will probably be my number 6 through election day with NC as number seven.  Both shaped up nicely for us in the end.  Imagine if they were the slam dunks we could've gotten.

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by: Andrew @ Fri Sep 12, 2008 at 03:47:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's not over and it was never a slam drunk

Unfortunately or fortunately depending on how you look at it, Smith was harder to beat because he was not hopelessly corrupt like so many other Republican Senators..

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by: skywaker9 @ Fri Sep 12, 2008 at 06:07:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think he means if we had recruited Peter DeFazio and Brad Miller

Because DeFazio would have made this a slam dunk.  Smith would have fought hard and he has a lot of money on hand, but Merkley is an unknown and thus definable to the electorate, whereas DeFazio has such a clear record that no one, including Smith, could define him.

One could launch bullshit voting-record attacks like those on Udall in Colorado, but look how well those are working.

DeFazio might not have been a 100% slam dunk, but he would've been pretty close.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

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by: texas dem @ Fri Sep 12, 2008 at 18:17:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

DeFazio yes

I think he'd be heavily favored at this point in the race against Smith.  But Merkley is the best we could find and he's turned out to be a solid choice.

As for Brad Miller, I'm not so sure he'd have a greater chance than Hagen.  Hagen has turned out to be a much better pick than I ever imagined.  The only good thing about Miller would have been his fundraising ability.  He could have far outraised Hagen, thus requiring less DSCC cash.  I still suspect Miller may take a crack at Burr in 2010.

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri Sep 12, 2008 at 19:13:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

not necessarily the best we could find

Merkley had to rely on massive cash infusions from Chuck Schumer, and a fair bit of smearing of his opponent, to beat the "best we could find," Steve Novick.

I don't think we'd take a GOP internal as gospel on the race; let's wait for an independent poll. (Unless the Merkley campaign is willing to release the methodology, question order, etc.) However, the approvals for Smith do echo the most recent SUSA on him, which showed a cratering of approval among indies in particular.

We'll have to wait and see.  

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by: torridjoe @ Fri Sep 12, 2008 at 22:50:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Lincoln Chafee - anyone else see this?

Former Rhode Island Sen. Lincoln Chafee was known for keeping a low-key profile on Capitol Hill, but the Republican turned Independent is making waves with his exceedingly blunt comments on newly-minted Republican VP candidate Sarah Palin

She's a "cocky wacko," he told a Washington think tank earlier this week.

http://politicalticker.blogs.c...

Damn good description of Palin.

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri Sep 12, 2008 at 02:42:16 AM UTC

YES.

This is ALL OVER Rhode Island talk radio today (oddly enough, radio here is still full of right-wing nutjobs, despite our status as #1 or #2 liberal state in the nation, depending on your source).
They're all livid over such betrayal, but this is exactly why Lincoln Chafee did so well here for so long - he's honest, he's realistic, and he calls it like he sees it.
Gotta admit it... I sometimes feel pangs of regret over voting for Whitehouse, but with a 51-49 majority, the regret can only go so far!
Go Chafee, GObama!
"You can put lipstick on a cocky wacko..."

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by: tommyiaf @ Fri Sep 12, 2008 at 02:51:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Chafee for cabinet

I agree... too bad that the moderates like Chafee and Hagel are voted out of the GOP. But we needed that 51-49.

I would like to see Chafee in Obamas cabinet. I think Cohen did a good job for Clinton.  

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by: Ectoras @ Fri Sep 12, 2008 at 07:16:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I always liked Lincoln Chafee

It's just sad he never could get over the fact his father was a republican and flip to the democrats, he's better on most issues then half the democratic party.

I would defiantly support Chafee for Obama's cabinet or governor of Rhode Island.  

Btw I'm back sorry I've been gone for like 2 months.  I should be posting more and am very excited about the election. So much has happened since the summer, the Democratic convention was awesome. Obama was incredible, and topped even the great speeches by the Clintons and Joe Biden (although Mark Warner's speech was horrendous). I still can't believe that McCain picked Palin, just a crazy suicidal pick. How insulting is that to women, to think that just because Palin is a women that women who supported Hillary Clinton would abandon all they believe in and vote for her. Just the most sexist insulting thing I have ever seen. I think once the American public sees Biden eviscerate her in the debate, this election will be done and Obama will win.  

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by: Conniver @ Fri Sep 12, 2008 at 12:20:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I could see a run for Governor

As either an independent of Dem.  I believe Carcieri is term-limited and the Governorship of RI will be open in 2010.

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri Sep 12, 2008 at 14:12:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Correct...

Carcieri is indeed term-limited in 2010, and the buzz in these parts is for David Cicilline (mayor of Providence, who boasts the highest approval rating in the state after Sens. Jack Reed and Sheldon Whitehouse, and fmr. Sen. Lincoln Chafee... but now that Buddy Cianci is back on the radio bashing him left and right, it's already taken a toll on his image.  If Cicilline runs, Buddy's trash-talking will increase tenfold, and Buddy's not even be part of the race), Frank Caprio (Gen. Treasurer), and Pat Lynch (AG) on the Dem side, and Steve Laffey (Chafee's 2006 primary opponent) for the GOP.  Laffey's a right-wing nutjob, and I highly doubt he can win statewide office here... but if he won mayor of my (quite liberal) hometown, I guess it's possible.

Chafee's played it very cool so far... calling it "unprobable" and something he'd really have to think about... but he keeps mentioning how people stop him on the street or in the supermarket and apologize for not voting for him, and encourage him to run again for Governor.  I doubt he'd keep dropping comments like that if he wasn't seriously considering it - it's like he's already got the speech prepared: "As people continue to stop me in public and urge me to run for office, I continue to be both humbled and inspired.  Their encouragement has helped me come to the decision to heed the public's call to service..."  Especially now that he's effectively abjured republicanism, he's got plenty of options here in the Ocean State!  But will it be a run for Governor?  Mayor of Providence?  Treasurer?  He's hinted at an interest in all three.

A post in an Obama cabinet would be an amazing alternative, though...

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by: tommyiaf @ Fri Sep 12, 2008 at 17:50:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The RSCC just went on the air in OR

With an anti-Merkley ad (I couldn't tell about what because I had the sound off) but given Smith's cash advantage, this is a very good sign!

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by: skywaker9 @ Fri Sep 12, 2008 at 03:37:20 AM UTC