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WA-08: Reichert Pulls Ahead by 10 Points in New Poll

by: James L.

Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 12:11 PM EDT


SurveyUSA (9/7-9, likely voters, 7/27-29 in parens):

Darcy Burner (D): 44 (44)
Dave Reichert (R-inc): 54 (50)
(MoE: ±3.8%)

A nice bump for Reichert, but what accounts for it? Given SUSA's crosstabs gone haywire in North Carolina, could we be seeing something similar in these results -- sparked in part, perhaps, by the Republican convention? Not that I can tell. The age, ethnicity, and party affiliation sample breakdowns are very similar to SUSA's July poll, and this most recent poll actually sees a slight uptick in female voters -- a group that breaks narrowly for Burner. Male voters, on the other hand, are flocking to Sheriff Dave by a wide 61-38 margin.

The most funky portion of the crosstabs? Voters under 35 support Reichert over Burner by a 16-point margin. Young voters going ga-ga for Republican incumbents and candidates is something we've seen quite often in many SUSA polls (especially ones from Minnesota), so it seems reasonable to find flaws with their voter screen here.

On another note, over at Pollster.com, Momentum Analysis' Margie Omero has a blog post well worth reading on Roll Call's recent controversial batch of SurveyUSA polls. I don't mean to dump on SUSA all of a sudden -- overall, I find that they produce quality work -- but her critique is well worth considering. I would also like to draw special attention to one paragraph in particular:

First, there's more to judging survey quality than whether it was conducted internally or by an independent third party.  But second, and perhaps more important, Congressional handicappers should rely on more than a single poll's results to judge a race's viability.

Well said. Too often we see people reflexively dismiss internal polling, as if the very nature of a partisan-commissioned poll deems the whole project untrustworthy. And it's also been too easy for some people to stake their entire analysis of a race on a single poll without attempting to get a more holistic sense of the dynamics of that particular contest.

SSP currently rates WA-08 as a Tossup.

James L. :: WA-08: Reichert Pulls Ahead by 10 Points in New Poll
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I hope this is just a fluke
I was hoping we could revert back to our old pre-1994 house delegation of a 8Dem to 1 R
Republicans took a whopping 6 of them from us in 1994
we have since then recovered 4 seats but we still need two more

Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  

SUSA tends to lean R in WA
No idea why but they do, same with Oregon.  I think their party ID is a bit off too.


Two Cook Political Gov moves - both not in our favor
INDIANA | Governor: Toss Up to Lean Republican
NORTH CAROLINA | Governor: Lean Democrat to Toss Up

Hate to say it but I agree with both moves.  I'd actually put IN-Gov at likely R at this point.  

I still think Perdue has a slight edge in NC, but probably not enough to make it leans D.


Yeah
SSP has had IN-Gov at Lean R since we started rating gubernatorial races, and we recently faced the music and knocked it down to Likely R.

We've also had NC-Gov at Tossup since the beginning, too.

Sensible moves for Charlie here.


[ Parent ]
Top 2 results
In the primary on August 19, Reichert led Burner by 4 points (48.5% to 44.5%) and Gregoire led Dino Rossi by 2 points.  Three weeks kater, Rossi takes his first lead of a very long campaign and Reichert's lead zoomed to 10 points.  Either the environment has shifted by about 5 points or these last two polls are trash.

Is it the bounce from the GOP convention or something local?  One poll is trash, two polls are movement.  Looks like some movement although I think 10 points is nuts and it is probably closer to six or seven.  Ugh,  


Let's Hope They're Trash
I want Darcy to win almost as much as I want Obama to win!

[ Parent ]
Burner
Just a gut feeling, from watching from a distance, that Darcy just ins't catching on.  She's never led a poll this year.

SUSA's last pre primary poll was accurate as they had Gregoire up two and Burner down six.  So there's been a Palin bounce.  I'd like see some more polling for Oregon if we have to start worrying about Oregon (and OR-Sen and OR-5, though Merkley seems to be improving).


[ Parent ]

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