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NY-26: DCCC Adds Kryzan to Red to Blue

by: James L.

Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 6:51 PM EDT

From the DCCC Press:

Following her victory in the Democratic Primary in New York's 26th Congressional District, Alice Kryzan has immediately been added to the DCCC's Red to Blue program for open seats. Alice Kryzan earned a spot in the competitive program by establishing significant local support and skillfully showing New York's voters that she stands for change and will represent new priorities.

"Congratulations to Alice Kryzan on her primary victory," said DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen. "Alice Kryzan is a strong leader who will fight to make college and health care more affordable, and lower gas prices. Alice Kryzan will be a formidable candidate in the general election. With 55 days left to make her case to the voters of the 26th district, the Red to Blue program will give Alice the financial and structural edge to be even more competitive."

The DCCC has also released a viability memo on this race, indicating that they still consider this one very much on the big board of opportunities. I wonder if EMILY's List will decide to make a bit of penance for its embarrassing support of Nikki Tinker against Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen earlier this summer by throwing their fundraising support to Kryzan. Might be a good idea for them.

Many have asked if Jon Powers can remove himself from the Working Families line on the November ballot. The short answer? He can't. But if he endorses and campaigns for Kryzan, his votes should be minimal.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

James L. :: NY-26: DCCC Adds Kryzan to Red to Blue

Tags: Alice Kryzan, NY-26, Red to Blue, (All Tags)

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NY-26: DCCC Adds Kryzan to Red to Blue | 9 comments

Having had all day

to think about this, I'm starting to think we might actually be best off with Kryzan as the nominee, so that we're going into the general election with essentially a blank slate, instead of a shit-splattered candidate for whom many voters "Jon Powers" = "that guy who bilks poor Iraqi kids" (regardless of the fact that the fault for that perception lies with Jack Davis, not Powers). Powers' advantages in money and endorsements might not have been able to fix the damage to his brand. At least that's my way of rationalizing things.

by: Crisitunity @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 18:45:46 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

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Davis truly poisoned the well.

However, Powers' War Kids Relief baggage was easily exploitable, and may have done him great harm in the general, even without Davis raising the issue several months beforehand. So having thought about it as well, at the very least, Kryzan is not in any worse position than Powers would have been had he won.

Kryzan has her own baggage (Occidental), but she's still pretty well undefined in the district. She'll need to change that soon before Lee gets the chance to write her bio for her.

by: James L. @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 18:51:39 PM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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My two cents...

The War Kids thing was dying. Jon made his case in print and on the air during one of the debates. He wasn't going to put it to rest (Davis and his campaign were still going to repeat it) but he made his case good enough that the Buffalo News also wrote an article about it which reinforced the facts instead of the deceptions.

There are some things about Kryzan we should be worried and they are the same reasons I'm a little shocked that the DCCC gave Kryzan this distinction so soon.

To start, Kryzan won Erie, Monroe and Niagara counties. This is a good thing. Erie and Niagara went for Davis in 2006. Both will probably go for Kryzan in the general. Winning Monroe shows strength considering Republicans will probably run very strong there. If you take the three big counties, Kryzan won by 2,051 votes over Powers. That's what made the difference in this race.

But Powers showed strength in the four rural counties (Genesee, Livingston, Orleans and Wyoming). Powers had 2,082 votes total in those four counties, beating Kryzan by 705 votes. The rural counties are Republican counties, but Powers' strength there showed that he could compete there - something Jack Davis could not do in 2006 and something that, as of right now, Kryzan doesn't have the ability to do either.

In other words, Kryzan won two counties that will more than likely go for Democrats in November and another that will more than likely go for the Republicans. It's good that she will compete in Monroe, but if she gets blown out in the four rural counties, this show is over.

by: robert.harding @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 21:03:10 PM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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i'm impressed by this level of detail

but it does raise some questions
1. What percentage of the district is in the "3 large counties" vs. what percentage is the rural 4?
2. If she loses the rural 4 by a little and wins the big 3 by a lot then she could certainly win I would think.
3. Kryzan won this distinction from the DCCC because this is an open seat with near even party id and she has no negatives. I think it's a good decision.

by: st paul sage @ Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 22:04:07 PM CDT

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Powers

Jack Davis' attack on Jon Powers was reminiscent of Leslie Byrne's attack on Gerry Connolly in Virginia. Only that attack was launched from the left by Byrne and her cohorts - mostly liberal bloggers and Emily's list. Thank God Jerry survived the primary and hopefully will win VA-11 in November.

by: fai calif @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 18:53:51 PM CDT

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I still think we can win this

The DCCC needs to use a good amount of the areas ad buy on this race and Kryzan has to improve as a candidate but I still think this is a top opportunity.

by: Populista @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 19:09:12 PM CDT

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Emily's list

Until Emily's list explains and compensates for that horrible racist campaign they involved themselves in Tennessee, I will send them no money and probably will not support many of their pet candidates....this might be a first step in atoning for their embarrassing lapse of judgement.

by: demdemdem @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 23:40:31 PM CDT

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i agree

I'm not letting Emily's list off the hook until they address the Cohen-Tinker race specifically. We should not even suggest that their assistance in this race would be a step towards forgiveness.

by: politicalal @ Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 08:05:35 AM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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agreed

I will forever dislike EMILY's list at least to some extent. They do great work but what an absolutely serious lapse of judgement.

by: Andrew @ Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 13:36:34 PM CDT

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