The Census Bureau recently started to release 2007 American Community Survey data for the whole country broken down by congressional district. I'm going to start with total population figures, as that may be the most important figure: while it doesn't tell us how the composition of the district has changed recently, it does give us a pretty clear picture of the trajectory different districts are on, in terms of where they'll be come redistricting time in 2010. (I'll get to income and poverty numbers in a different diary soon. Other information, such as race, education, and age, hasn't been released and won't be for a few more weeks.)
I'll start with the districts which have experienced the greatest population gain. These are the areas that will have to shed the most population (often into newly-created districts).
Now here are the districts that have lost the most population between 2000 and 2007, and which will need to absorb the most surrounding territory (or be eliminated and dispersed into surrounding districts).
District
Rep.
2000
2007
Change
LA-02
Jefferson (D)
639,048
385,399
- 253,649
PA-14
Doyle (D)
645,809
547,019
- 98,790
MI-13
Kilpatrick (D)
662,844
568,760
- 94,084
PA-02
Fattah (D)
647,350
556,246
- 91,104
OH-11
vacant
630,668
539,938
- 90,730
IL-07
D. Davis (D)
653,521
586,439
- 67,082
NY-28
Slaughter (D)
654,464
588,681
- 65,783
IL-04
Gutierrez (D)
653,654
589,874
- 63,780
MI-14
Conyers (D)
662,468
599,005
- 63,463
NY-27
Higgins (D)
654,200
598,044
- 56,156
IL-17
Hare (D)
653,531
598,742
- 54,789
CA-09
Lee (D)
639,426
584,787
- 54,639
KS-01
Moran (R)
672,051
617,449
- 54,602
AL-07
A. Davis (D)
635,631
581,269
- 54,362
MS-02
B. Thompson (D)
710,996
656,843
- 54,153
TN-09
Cohen (D)
631,740
577,995
- 53,745
PA-05
Peterson (R)
646,326
594,617
- 51,709
CA-53
S. Davis (D)
638,703
587,042
- 51,661
MN-05
Ellison (D)
614,874
565,407
- 49,467
OH-17
Ryan (D)
630,316
581,058
- 49,258
MA-08
Capuano (D)
635,185
587,438
- 47,747
OH-10
Kucinich (D)
631,003
585,892
- 45,111
MI-12
Levin (D)
662,559
617,539
- 45,020
PA-01
Brady (D)
645,422
600,957
- 44,465
MO-01
Clay (D)
621,497
577,240
- 44,257
Note the high number of Republican districts on the growth list, and the high number of Democratic districts on the shrinkage list. The first list is 25 of the districts that are some of the most archetypal exurbs, and the second list is mostly the inner cities of the Rust Belt. Now, I could go all David Brooks on you, and make the case that this spells doom for the Democrats, because Democrats are either dying out or else moving to the exurbs as complete blank slates who get turned into Republicans when they eat the magic GOP fairy dust that they sprinkle over the salad bar at Applebee's.
However, this needs to be viewed through the lens of the bluening of the people remaining in the cities, and, maybe more importantly, the bluening of the people in the inner ring suburbs. In fact, there's probably something of a ripple effect going on: people moving from the city to the inner ring suburbs, bringing their city values with them, and people already in the inner city suburbs looking around them, not liking what they see anymore, and moving further out to the exurbs. (Which isn't to say the suburbs-to-exurbs migration is consciously for racist or ideological reasons; it might be expressed purely in terms of wanting a bigger house with granite countertops, or having more elbow room separating them from neighbors. For whatever reasons, though, someone predisposed to valuing that, more so than an easier commute, a walkable neighborhood, or more interaction with neighbors, may also likelier to be predisposed to being a Republican.)
In addition, immigration plays a big factor. Traditionally, cities were the beachhead for wave after wave of immigrants in American history, but now many of them are making their first stop in the suburbs or even exurbs. As I said earlier, 2007 race data isn't available yet, but when it is, you'll see that much of the growth in the fastest growing districts (TX-10 and GA-07 especially come to mind) is non-white. (There's also another consideration: migration from other states, and people bringing their northern values with them to the Sun Belt.)
Note that this is different from a list of purely the most and least populous districts. Here are the ten most populous districts:
District
Rep.
2000
2007
Change
NV-03
Porter (R)
665,345
949,685
284,340
AZ-06
Flake (R)
641,360
944,706
303,346
MT-AL
Rehberg (R)
902,195
933,264
31,069
AZ-02
Franks (R)
641,435
923,694
282,259
UT-03
Cannon (R)
744,545
891,668
147,123
TX-10
McCaul (R)
651,523
889,342
237,819
GA-07
Linder (R)
630,511
874,059
243,548
FL-05
Brown-Waite (R)
639,719
870,558
230,839
UT-02
Matheson (D)
744,287
857,741
113,454
UT-01
Bishop (R)
744,377
852,082
107,705
And the ten least populous:
District
Rep.
2000
2007
Change
LA-02
Jefferson (D)
639,048
385,399
- 253,649
RI-01
Kennedy (D)
524,189
506,472
- 17,717
WY-AL
Cubin (R)
493,782
508,840
+ 15,058
RI-02
Langevin (D)
524,130
512,250
- 11,880
NE-03
A. Smith (R)
570,532
537,076
- 33,456
OH-11
vacant
630,668
539,938
- 90,730
PA-14
Doyle (D)
645,809
547,019
- 98,790
IA-05
King (R)
585,171
548,055
- 37,116
PA-02
Fattah (D)
647,350
556,246
- 91,104
MN-05
Ellison (D)
614,874
565,407
- 49,467
As you can see, these lists aren't quite as interesting, because of some oddball picks where states started out the decade with either very large (Montana, Utah) or very small (Rhode Island, Iowa) districts, because their populations put them on the cusp of whether or not to get an extra seat. (Or in the case of Wyoming, because there are so few people there at all.) However, I suppose it might be interesting to start a betting pool as to when Rhode Island drops to one at-large seat (2020?).
