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KY-02: Boswell Posts Another Lead in New Internal Poll

by: James L.

Wed Sep 03, 2008 at 7:42 PM EDT

Garin-Hart-Yang for David Boswell (8/23-25, likely voters):

David Boswell (D): 41
Brett Guthrie (R): 33
(MoE: ±4.9%)

This is a real opportunity, no doubt. An earlier poll this summer from SurveyUSA showed Boswell, a longtime state Senator, leading Guthrie by three points for this open seat. While Kentucky's 2nd has a PVI of R+12.9, it's an ancestrally Democratic seat and Boswell has a good deal of name recognition from his long stint in Kentucky politics, including serving a term as the state's Agriculture Commissioner.

However, if Boswell hopes to win this one, he's gonna need to bundle some money together, and fast. When we last checked in with the Bos at the end of June, he had only $45K in the bank (compared to Guthrie's $661K). Former Senate candidate (and richie rich) Greg Fischer has stepped forward in recent weeks to help money find Boswell, and other Kentucky Dems were pushing this race hard in Denver. However, Boswell needs to crank it up in order to seize this opportunity.

James L. :: KY-02: Boswell Posts Another Lead in New Internal Poll

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KY-02: Boswell Posts Another Lead in New Internal Poll | 7 comments

I don't get Boswell

The guy is well-known and liked and this could be his race to lose. WHY does he seem to have no interest in running a real campaign? I really hope he gets his act together.

by: ChadInFL @ Wed Sep 03, 2008 at 19:09:07 PM CDT

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Seems like a race the DCCC would finance

which is, perhaps, the point.

by: andgarden @ Wed Sep 03, 2008 at 19:47:31 PM CDT

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This is one that has fallen completely under the radar

Boswell is extremely well known in the district. KY-02 is a lot like MS-01 in the sense that before it elected a GOP true believer in 1994, it was represented by a yellow dog Democrat (William Natcher) for decades. While the district is around R+13, there are probably some yellow dogs left in eastern Kentucky.

Let the record show that the wise sage Stu Rothernberg said in passing in a column that Boswell had no chance of winning. (Though, I actually think Rothernberg is smart, he is unquestionably overly-smug about races he knows little about besides the conventional wisdom).

by: Andy Dufresne @ Wed Sep 03, 2008 at 19:54:04 PM CDT

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I checked

an astounding 56% of voters in the district are registered Democrats, but they gave Bush 66% of the vote. DixieCrat to the core, but Boswell is a Natcheresque Democrat who's been a Seceretary of Agriculture and state senator for decades, so he's awell known conservative, down home local politician, and there was lingering controversy over how the incumbent, (can't remember his name), retired at the last minute to try to give it away to his staffer. Not to mention, state Rep. Mike Weaver got 44% of the vote running last time around against a popular six term incumbent, it's now an open seat and we have a better candidate.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Wed Sep 03, 2008 at 20:18:59 PM CDT

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Ron Lewis (R)

As a sidenote, does anyone know if there's some reason Boswell doesn't seem to need or have the money? Is this a cheap media market area, or does he have Magical Fund-Stretching abilities a la Boyda/Shea-Porter/Kissell?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Wed Sep 03, 2008 at 21:12:44 PM CDT

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Mayby like MS-01 with one HUGE difference

The reason we can win districts like MS-01 (and hopefully places like AL-02) is a large block of black voters. You don't have that in a place like KY-02. Think of having to fight the MS-01 special election just among white voters, and you get a sense of how hard Kentucky, West Virginia, and parts of Tennessee have become for Democrats. They may still call themselves Democrats, but other than for county sheriff and an uber-conservative state legislator or two, they haven't actually voted that way for a long time.

by: IndianaProgressive @ Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 09:14:20 AM CDT

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Any idea

what Boswell's fundraising has looked like SINCE Q2 ended? He couldn't raise money during the legislative session which went pretty late into the year this year and then he had to spend most of his money on his primary which I think was in June. Perhaps he's picked it up since then?

by: Populista @ Wed Sep 03, 2008 at 21:21:00 PM CDT

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KY-02: Boswell Posts Another Lead in New Internal Poll | 7 comments