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NM-01: Heinrich Leads White by 5 in New Poll

by: James L.

Wed Sep 03, 2008 at 1:18 AM EDT


SurveyUSA for Roll Call (8/26-28, likely voters):

Martin Heinrich (D): 51
Darren White (R): 46
(MoE: ±4.0%)

Nice. Those are some very swanky numbers for Heinrich. However, these ones are even swankier for Team Blue:

Barack Obama (D): 55
John McCain (R): 41

If Obama is doing that well in the 1st District (which Kerry won by only three points in 2004), that bodes very well for Obama's statewide efforts here. It's also an ominous sign for Sheriff Disco White -- he'll have to swim strongly upstream in order to win here if these numbers are accurate.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

UPDATE: Crosstabs are available here. Comparing this poll to SUSA's last poll in NM-01 (from November 2006), the D-R breakdown is basically unchanged, but this most recent poll is significantly older (46% under 50 vs. 59% under 50 in 2006) and less Hispanic (24% vs. 37%). So on its face, it doesn't seem like the sample was juked in Heinrich's favor -- if anything, the opposite.

James L. :: NM-01: Heinrich Leads White by 5 in New Poll
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I think somethings up with these numbers
and their AL-02 numbers.

That just seems like too good of news. Obama up by 14? Seems a little too good.

If true though, great news. Let's turn New Mexico all blue!


We'll have to take a look at the crosstabs
They'll be released in the morning. The weighting of the AL-02 sample was a clear tip-off that that poll was bunk -- and another example of why one should never place 100% faith in any single poll or pollster. So we'll have to see if SUSA's NM-01 sample passes the smell test.

[ Parent ]
It's hard to poll CDs
Unless, of course, it's an at-large district. I think these SUSA polls are kind of suspect, especially this one. I hardly think Obama's going to win the district by double-digits.

[ Parent ]
Obama's lead among
hispanic voters is much greater than Kerry's in this heavily Hispanic district. Kerry won it by three points, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Obama pad that significantly. SUSA has had some very good work done last time around, and the crosstabs on this one look sound.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
And actually
this is the LEAST Hispanic of the three districts in New Mexico.


New Mexico politics from the local perspective.

[ Parent ]
per percentage
of the voting population, this is probably bigger than NM-02 down below it, since many of them are illegal, or unregistered. It's a majorty hispanic district, yet it gave Bush 58% of the vote and voted strongly for a far right anti-immigration nut numerous times.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
I think NM is turning blue
The presidential numbers are consistant with a statewide Mason-Dixon poll. By itself SUSA might look odd, but it has backup. By the way, how did Kerry do in NM-01?

Kerry 51%, Bush 48%
Obama is far outperforming.

[ Parent ]
Just remember
On the right-hand column, we list the Presidential Vote by Congressional District.

[ Parent ]
If these numbers are legit, McCain
can forget about New Mexico.

I await the Demographic subsamples.  


Why are White's numbers better than McCain's?


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

Hey, that's easy
I'm from out of state but I have one answer. He's been the local sheriff. People know him, or think that they know him. Because he's been county sheriff while Heinrich has only been a Councilman, he has a sort of incumbent's advantage.

As the race becomes less local and more national in the minds of the voters, White's numbers have started to track McSame's, which track Bush's. In other words, we are gonna win this one this year at last. Maybe now James L can move it to the left on the SSP table.


[ Parent ]
Unclear
I should have said, White's been sheriff for the whole county, while Heinrich has been only a councilman representing either a sliver, or if at large one of many. White has been "the sheriff" or even "my sheriff" to a large number of the voters. That gives him a sort of incumbent's advantage in name recognition and voters seeing him as their guy.

[ Parent ]
True, and ...
County Sheriffs tend to make pretty good candidates, as long as they are percieved to have done a good job -- there is real potential for "non-partisan" appeal -- just ask Brad Ellsworth in southern Indiana.  His successful tenure as Vandeburgh County Sheriff provided an ideal platform for wide appeal in his run for Congress.

[ Parent ]
Good point
Like our candidate in the Shreveport district. He's remained a Democrat against the tide there while serving for years as the D.A., also a sort of non-partisan position even if elected by party ID. I hope he has good luck like Ellsworth while I hope that White doesn't!  

[ Parent ]
My perspective from the ground.
NM-01 covers four counties. White is sheriff of Bernaillio County with the most population. The three sheriffs in Solano, Torrence and Valenica County have endorsed Heinrich and are all Democrats. The Solano County sheriff even has his own blog where he discusses politics and hammers Darren White all the time. It's beautiful.

White's going to have to overcome the lack of support from the other sheriff's. This race could be decided by only  a hundred votes like 2006 and White is going to have to outperform in Bernaillio to make up for less votes in the other counties. The smaller counties have the potential to swing the race. My own has something like 5,000 Dems, which could easily push Martin into office.

This poll doesn't surprise me. White just doesn't project the right kind of persona for a Albuquerque politician. He would fit in fine in a conservative county down south, but he does have the right personal blend for NM-01. The Obama poll doesn't surprise me either. He has five offices in NM-01 compared to McCains 1.


[ Parent ]
I'd like to see this Solano County Sheriff's blog
Mind posting a link?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
See what happens when your in a hurry? Two corrections he is sheriff of Santa Fe County
and his name is Solano. I should know these things for chrissakes.

Here you go-

http://sheriffgregsolano.blogs...

Here's a post with Heinrich and Rahm Emmanuel-

http://sheriffgregsolano.blogs...  


[ Parent ]
Good info, er
Well, a good report all in all, even if the info was a bit garbled.
;-)

[ Parent ]
I read some of his articles.
and bookmarked his blog.  I like his writing.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
This poll is REALLY good news
It shows Heather Wilson, the incumbent, lame duck GOP Congresswoman with a -5 approval rating. Because of her ties to Bush, probably.

Heinrich has room to grow -- and he's already about 50 percent. The demographics look right, the Hispanic number might even be a little low -- in other words, this looks like a good opportunity to make Heinrich our next Congressman.

I would like to see a poll on NM-02 now...

New Mexico politics from the local perspective.



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